Scottish Open Tips: Five selections from The Renaissance Club

The Scottish Open takes place this week and our man Jamie Broadhurst returns with five each-way selections and a full preview for the event. 

Welcome Back! Apologies to those regular readers, after a year of solid preview writing every week, I decided to take a couple of weeks out of the game before a big few weeks on the Tour!

Let’s get straight into it then and get back to profitable ways!

2023 Genesis Scottish Open

Onto the warm up before the big one next week at Hoylake, players from both the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour travel to North Berwick, Scotland where they will compete in the co-sanctioned event of the Scottish Open.

The Renaissance club, this is the location of this week’s event, as it has been for the last 3 renewals of the Scottish Open. Having only been founded in 2008 it is a relatively new course, however its old-fashioned layout with a touch of ‘links’ makes it feel like it's been a part of the landscape for decades.

Set on the North Sea coastline, the weather this week will be anybody’s guess. Currently however, we are looking at a dry week! With temperatures looking to settle between 18-25 degrees Celsius with winds gusting up to 25/30mph. But as I say, this could change very quickly…

The Renaissance Club 

• Par 71, 7290 yards approx.
• Tom Doak design
• Fescue greens
• 5 x Par 3s – ranging between 147-218 yards
• 9 x Par 4s – ranging between 338-493 yards
• 4 x Par 5s – ranging between 561-600 yards
• Large greens

The course, weather dependent, is seen as a soft warmup for the Open Championship the week after for most. Apart from last year when the conditions got the better of the players when Aaron Rai won at a measly -11., When it has been dry in both 2021 and 2019 we have seen both -18 and -22 get the win. So, if the forecast is correct and holds for the week then I predict we will see similar scoring.

The fescue greens are quite an unknown to the guys and can run dangerously quick when the wind picks up, the shinier they get if dry.

Last 3 winners and their Performance stats

2022 Winner – Xander Schauffele -7
2021 Winner – Min Woo LEE -18 (Playoff win over Detry and Fitzpatrick)
2020 Winner – Aaron Rai -11 (Playoff win over Fleetwood)
2019 Winner – Bernd Wiesberger -22 (Playoff win over Hebert_
Average Score -14

Stats to consider this week

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – slight advantage to distance
• Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
• Proximity to the hole 
• Putting Average/experience putting here
• Par 5 scoring

Apart from 2022 when the weather took charge, distance off the tee was an advantage to the guys at the top of the leaderboards. Drivable par 4s aplenty and reachable par 5s all over the course are very gettable for these guys.

Strokes Gained: Tee2Green has always been key here and to be honest with the scoring likely to be low again it is a massive factor again to look at this week.

Proximity to the hole is an unusual stat to shout out, however typically to this part of the world, the greens are massive here and hitting them in the right places will be key to set up the better eagle/birdie opportunities.

Putting averages in 2021 and 2019 played a massive part when birdies were high, making key putts on the big sloping greens will be a factor again this week and iot may be worth looking into the putting stats from those weeks.

4 Par 5s are at The Renaissance Club and for the guys that average 305+ yards Off the Tee they are all reachable, in the last 3 years they have played a massive factor, with the eventual winners constantly overcoming them with eagles/birdies.

This week’s field/odds

A very strong field this week for this co-sanctioned event with 20 of the World's Top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Amongst these we have World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler who is market favourite this week at 13/2. In his last six starts on the PGA Tour he has had six top-5 finishes.

Scottie is the epitome of consistency this year, his win tally would be way more than 4 for the season if his putter behaved as in two of his last four starts he has ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee2Green but dead last in Putting Averages. Expect a good week again from the World Number 1. 

The only other golfer at a single figure price is World Number 3 Rory McIlroy at 8/1. Rory had a very slow start to the 2023 PGA Tour Season after his victory in January on the DP World Tour, epitomised by missed cuts at both The Players Championship and The Masters. However, since a disappointing show at his much favored Wells Fargo Championship in May he has seemed to turn things around crediting to his improved putting performances of late. He has finished in the top 10 in all 5 of his last tournaments on Tour, so he is finding some form going into this British stretch for sure.

Patrick Cantlay and defending champion Xander Schauffele then come next in the market at 12/1. Xander has had a typical Xander year to date – a flutter of top 10/20 finishes but no real stand out performances, he may be defending champ but not one I would take at 12/1. Patrick Cantlay is the same price wise in that I wouldn’t take him, but I would definitely steer clear due to his recent form.

Between these guys and the 28/1 mark we have six guys who are nothing but ball strikers; Rickie Fowler 16/1, Viktor Hovland 16/1, Jordan Speith 18/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 20/1, Tommy Fleetwood 20/1 and Tyrrell Hatton 22/1. Fowler has the best form of the group after winning two weeks back and is back to his consistent self, a previous winner in Scotland is bound to go well this week. My picks from this group however are Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick. Hovland seems to have found a new groove this year consistency wise, picking up a win on US soil in the meantime. He is a ball striking machine who hits the ball mighty far and mighty straight. Matt Fitzpatrick fits the same mold as Hovland whereby he hits fairways for fun, but scrabbles on a much better scale than Viktor. A proven Major Championship winner who has chalked up another victory this season. 

Players at bigger odds that are worthy of a mention; Ryan Fox at 80/1 is always a danger at the price, Alex Bjork at 100/1 is huge considering his consistent year on the DP World Tour and the Hojgaard twins at 80/1 and 100/1, especially with Rasmus winning in his home country last week at the Made in Himmerland.

Scottish Open Selections

Four each way selections this week – all took at 8 places with bet365, for the 5th selection I have thrown in a top-20 finish bet. All 1pt each way on the selections then 2pts on the top 20 finish – 10pts staked again in total.

I mentioned earlier in the preview when talking about the field that I liked Matty Fitz in his group in the betting market and he is the headline pick for me this week.

He drives it straight and longer than the average Tour pro, his wedge game is superb and his around the green/putting powers are some of the best in the game of golf, no weaknesses in his game when he catches fire which is probably why he is a deserved Major Champion.

The last four years at The Renaissance Club he has finished 14-42-2-6, making all four cuts and contending at some stage in at least three of those outings. I am hoping he can build on his win earlier in the year at the RBC Heritage.

A guy that has featured on my previews many times this year for sure, but one that has returned us a lot of places.

Tyrrell is having an exceptionally consistent year but I really think his odds this week are big compared to some guys below him in less form. 14-18-24 in three attempts at The Renaissance Club is nothing to be sniffed at and 10 top 25 finishes and 6 top 10 finishes in his PGA Tour season to date is nothing short of excellent. Stats wise on the PGA Tour he features in the top 20 for 5/6 of the big Strokes Gained categories, he loves turning up in big fields and I am sure he can do it again this week!

A debutant at The Renaissance Club but one that I am sure will adapt very quickly due to his roots in Ireland. A 13th finish last week was a much better performance than his last few starts on the Tour but I still think this price is huge for Power who won at an incredibly windy Bermuda Championship course the back end of 2022. His accurate long iron game and his sharp putting will come in handy here for sure.

What a consistent year this guy is having on the DP World Tour and is playing some of his best golf coming here this week. 4-8-7-6-29-4-4-14-16 are his last nine finishes on the DP Tour and is consistently up there in all strokes gained stats and is a whizz with the flat stick. 

In the four Scottish Opens at The Renaissance Club he has made every cut and has a highest finish of 19th place, he is surely worth a chance at triple figures this week!

Not an each way selection but a juicy price for a top 20 finish that’s for sure! Recent form figures of 7-39-4-49 and third last week in Denmark shows how solid Richie is playing currently, returning to his home country I am sure he will be filled with confidence to build on that form!