Politics Odds

Clacton By-Election Odds

Nigel Farage quit as Clacton MP on 7 July over the £5m payment scrutiny, forced the by-election himself, then filed to stand again.

This has led to a record field of 34 candidates, beating the 26-candidate record from Haltemprice and Howden set in 2008. Labour, Tories, Greens, Lib Dems, and Restore Britain have all pulled out of the election, calling it a stunt.

With the big parties gone, Farage is the clear favourite to win his own seat back. Count Binface is the only one actually cutting through; bookies (BOYLE Sports, Bet365, BetFred) have him around the 9/1 mark, about 10% to win outright. Polymarket's lower, near 4%. But he's the runaway favourite for second place, 77.5% on Polymarket.

The gap between odds and sentiment is the real story here. Ipsos poll (8-9 July) had 33% of British adults wanting Count Binface to win vs 21% for Farage, and about 75% of all money placed on this race has gone on Binface despite the long odds.

So: Farage is still the favourite to get his seat back, but Binface is where the protest vote and the betting volume are landing.

Popular UK Politics Betting Markets

The currents of political change are always moving, but it’s not just general elections that present politics betting opportunities. Post-Brexit, the UK has seen plenty of political tumult, with regular changes to Prime Ministers, party leaders, and MPs through local by-elections. The best politics betting sites will offer markets that reflect all of this change – below we’ve listed some of the most popular. 

• Next Prime Minister — Prime Ministers are generally voted in following a general election every five years, but political uncertainty in the UK has shown that’s not necessarily the case. The UK has had six Prime Ministers since 2016; you can compare odds on the next one at all of our politics betting sites;
• Overall Majority — To win an election outright, one party must win over half of the UK’s 650 seats in parliament. Doing so gives that party an overall majority in the House of Commons. You can wager on whether this will occur at the next election, that was once likely as only Labour or Conservative could achieve this, until the birth of Reform, a new political monster on the scene. 
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• Local Elections & By-Elections — Local elections refer to mayoral and councillor appointments in local governments, sometimes known as municipal elections in towns or cities. And when an MP leaves their post before the next general election, a by-election is necessary to fill the vacancy. Bettors can make predictions on both of these kinds of elections at the best politics betting sites. 

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