Politics Odds

Why Did Starmer Resign & Who Are the Contenders to Replace Him?

Keir Starmer announced his resignation on Monday 22nd June 2026 after a full-scale Labour revolt following one of the worst local election performances in living memory. The final straw was Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by-election, making a leadership challenge inevitable. The bookies had this nailed weeks out and were paying early on his exit.

Burnham is your clear favourite to replace him and the market has already made up its mind. He's trading at 1/50 across the board, an implied probability of around 98%. That's not a betting opportunity, that's a formality. The field behind him tells the real story: Ed Miliband is next best at around 20/1, with Alistair Carns and Angela Rayner both available at 22/1 to 25/1. Wes Streeting, despite early talk of a challenge, has come in at 25/1. The odds reflect his decision to back Burnham rather than stand himself.

Burnham is your banker if you need to be on it. Rayner at 25/1 is your each-way saver, the most credible alternative if anything derails the frontrunner. Leave the rest alone.

Popular UK Politics Betting Markets

The currents of political change are always moving, but it’s not just general elections that present politics betting opportunities. Post-Brexit, the UK has seen plenty of political tumult, with regular changes to Prime Ministers, party leaders, and MPs through local by-elections. The best politics betting sites will offer markets that reflect all of this change – below we’ve listed some of the most popular. 

• Next Prime Minister — Prime Ministers are generally voted in following a general election every five years, but political uncertainty in the UK has shown that’s not necessarily the case. The UK has had six Prime Ministers since 2016; you can compare odds on the next one at all of our politics betting sites;
• Overall Majority — To win an election outright, one party must win over half of the UK’s 650 seats in parliament. Doing so gives that party an overall majority in the House of Commons. You can wager on whether this will occur at the next election, that was once likely as only Labour or Conservative could achieve this, until the birth of Reform, a new political monster on the scene. 
• Prime Minister Exit Date — When will the current Prime Minister leave their post? Have a punt in this political betting market;
• London Mayoral Election — London mayors are elected every four years, with candidates from all political parties competing for the post;
• Next Conservative Leader — Kemi Badenoch is the current Conservative party leader. Who will succeed her?
• Next Labour Leader — Similarly, punters can wager on who they think will be the person to succeed Keir Starmer as head of Labour;
• Next Liberal Democrats Leader — Ed Davey fronts the Lib Dems at the moment. Who are the rising stars in the party? You can have your say in this market; 
• Next SNP Leader — John Swinney is the current encumbment. Who is the next in line?
• Year of Next General Election — The next scheduled UK general election is in 2029. They’re supposed to come every five years, but will we make it to 2029 before an intervention? 
• Local Elections & By-Elections — Local elections refer to mayoral and councillor appointments in local governments, sometimes known as municipal elections in towns or cities. And when an MP leaves their post before the next general election, a by-election is necessary to fill the vacancy. Bettors can make predictions on both of these kinds of elections at the best politics betting sites. 

British Politics Frequently Asked Questions