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FA Cup Final Bet Builder Tips: Back this 45/1 longshot at Wembley

Luis Diaz has recorded 1+ Shot on Target in eight of his last nine appearances and features in our picks
Luis Diaz has recorded 1+ Shot on Target in eight of his last nine appearances and features in our picks

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It’s the FA Cup final this weekend and here at BettingOdds.com we’ve taken a deep dive into the stats to provide you with insight that can hopefully lead to some profitable punting. We’ve taken a look at goals, shots, fouls, tackles and cards and have also provided you with a Bet Builder for the game. We’ll also have a full preview for the match that can be seen live on BBC1 or ITV1, kicking off at 4:45pm. 

Chelsea vs Liverpool Bet Builder

Chelsea vs Liverpool Odds

Fa Cup Final   Ref Stats

Earlier in the season these two sides produced one of the most breathtaking 45 minutes of football the Premier League has seen, when they faced off at Stamford Bridge at the start of January. That game was 2-2 at half time, after a memorable volley from Mateo Kovacic, with the game going on to finish with the same scoreline.

Looking back at past meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea, it’s the Reds who have had the upper hand in recent years. Klopp’s side defeated Chelsea on penalties in the Carabao Cup in February, but prior to that the Reds had gone unbeaten in four of the last five (W2 D2 L1).

Earlier in the season these two sides produced one of the most breathtaking 45 minutes of football the Premier League has seen, when they faced off at Stamford Bridge at the start of January. That game was 2-2 at half time, after a memorable volley from Mateo Kovacic, with the game going on to finish with the same scoreline.

Looking back at past meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea, and they have met on three occasions with all three ending in a draw after 90 minutes. 

COMP DATE HOME SCORE AWAY
League Cup 27/02/2022 Chelsea 0-0 Liverpool (Won on Pens)
Premier League 02/01/2022 Chelsea 2-2 Liverpool
Premier League 28/08/2021 Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
Premier League 04/03/2021 Liverpool 0-1 Chelsea
Premier League 20/09/2020 Chelsea 0-2 Liverpool
Premier League 22/07/2020 Liverpool 5-3 Chelsea
FA Cup Odds
Fa Cup Final   Liv Cards
Fa Cup Final   Chelsea Cards

So who are we backing to pick up a card in the final and who appeals at the bookmaker prices? First up, the referee in charge of this game will be Craig Pawson. The official has been one of the better referees in the top-flight when it comes to dishing out the cards this term, with an average of 4.28 yellows shown per game. This can hopefully bode well for card backers, despite only 12 cards being shown in the last six meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool.

Chelsea have picked up 59 yellows in the league this season with Liverpool 49. When looking at the persistent offenders for the Blues, it’s Antonio Rudiger and Marcos Alonso who lead the way, with eight cautions to their name. Both of those players are being offered at relatively short prices in the ‘to be carded’ market, with Rudiger 11/5 and Alonso (23/10). 

With this in mind Mason Mount looks a better value prospect at 9/2. The midfielder has been carded four times in the league this season and has a tendency to card-collect in bigger games, having been shown four yellows in 11 appearances in last season’s Champions League winning campaign for Chelsea. 

Only two sides in the Premier League have picked up fewer yellow cards than Liverpool this season, and it’s Sadio Mane along with Andy Roberston who have the most cautions, tied on five each. We don’t feel their prices scream value here, but one selection we do like the look of is Trent Alexander-Arnold to make Over 1.5 tackles in the match, available at 13/8 as a single. The right-back has recorded at least one tackle in all of his last eight league starts and has recorded at least two in six of his last eight. He averages 2.12 tackles per game across his last eight league appearances and we’d be happy to include him in our Bet Builder for this game. 

Chelsea vs Liverpool Odds
Fa Cup Final   Liv Shots
Fa Cup Final   Chelsea Shots

Moving on to the shots and goalscorer markets and we’ll start with Chelsea. Mason Mount is the top scorer for the Blues in the league with 11, however shots backers should be wary with the 23-year-old only registering a shot on target in one of his last five starts. One player who stands out here is Christian Pulisic. The American is priced at 6/5 with bet365 for Over 1.5 shots in the match and looking back at his recent data, this is a line he has cleared in five of his last six starts in the Premier League. Betfair go 4/11 about this same selection so we’d definitely be recommending 365 here. 

Liverpool’s forwards have scored a whopping 61 goals between them this season, and that’s just in the league. It’s Mo Salah who leads the way with 22 goals, although the Egyptian is going through a bit of a dry spell in comparison to his high standards. Salah has only scored in one of his last 13 appearances for Liverpool and has only registered a shot on target in one of his last six in all competitions. A suitable alternative for our selections looks to be Luis Diaz. The Colombian has recorded a shot on target in eight of his last nine appearances, hitting 2+ in four of those. 

Adding Diaz to have a shot on target to the three selections we have already highlighted adds up to a 45/1 Bet Builder with bet365, should all four participants start the match. 

  • Mason Mount to be carded
  • Trent Alexander-Arnold Over 1.5 Tackles
  • Christian Pulisic Over 1.5 Shots
  • Luis Diaz Over 0.5 Shots on Target
  • 45/1 Bet Builder - bet365

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Diaz Over 0.5 Shots on Target - Trent Over 1.5 Tackles - Pulisic Over 1.5 Shots - Mount to be Carded
45/1
Odds correct as of 2022-05-12 15:45 Odds subject to change.
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