BMW Championship Tips & Predictions: Three against the field at Olympia
After a win on Sunday our golf tipster Russell Palmer is back with three more for this week's BMW Championship on the PGA Tour...
- Jon Rahm - 1pt win @ odds of 14/1
- Kevin Kisner - 1pt each-way @ odds of 45/1 with 888Sport (6 places)
- Bubba Watson - 0.5pts each-way @ odds of 100/1 with William Hill (6 places)
I was absolutely delighted to see my third winner come in on Sunday since the PGA Tour restart, especially with such ease as Dustin Johnson breezed to an eleven shot win, tipped up here at 20/1 last week.
A second round 60 helped him on his way but the American made a staggering 23 birdies, five eagles and just three bogeys on his way to 254 shot total of -30 under par.
Part of my reasoning of backing DJ last week was his price. 20/1 looked a big number given his course and tournament form, he'd already won on the PGA Tour since the restart and was second place on his last start at the USPGA Championship.
He led going into the final round in the USPGA but couldn't get the job done and perhaps that's where the bookies made their mistake relaxing him in the market. I can't think of a more emphatic winner in recent times.
If the bookies took their eye off DJ last week, they're certainly not for this week's BMW Championship, where he is a best price 8/1 favourite.
If he plays as well again this week then he'll be hard to beat, but at that price he's not for me.
Olympia Fields Country Club in Illinois hosts this week's second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs where just 70 players line up.
The course hosted the 2003 US Open which was won by Jim Furyk and more recently the 2015 US Amateur Championship, which was won by Bryson DeChambeau, so there's very little in the way of course form to go by.
A classic parkland layout, the fairways are narrow and the rough will give the players enough to think about to represent a harder challenge that last week.
A par 70 measuring over 7,300 yards means it's a test lengthwise, but I'll be looking for a mix of accuracy and distance off the tee and general excellent ball striking when it comes to the stats.
Market Leaders
Johnson is favourite, but there are some familiar names at the top of the betting. Jon Rahm who finished in a tie for 6th last week is a 10/1 chance whilst DeChambeau and Justin Thomas can be backed at 14/1.
DeChambeau missed the cut last week at Boston and I'm not so sure he can overpower the course here in Illinois, whilst Thomas has had two pretty modest finishes since we put him up to win the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational last month.
In last week's column I made a point of saying that I was waiting for Rory McIlroy's price to get big enough to back him and he's an 18/1 chance this week. The Northern Irishman hasn't missed a cut since the restart but with rounds of 32-41-11-32-47-33-65 he's barely been a threat and I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger. He's an amazing talent and I'm sure his top form will return but his stats around and on the green are so poor it's just hard to side with him yet. Hope I don't rue those words!
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Jon Rahm to win
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14/1 | |
- A win and a top ten in his last four starts
- Ranks top five for driving and has rapier like irons
WEBB SIMPSON WITHDRAWN
For my first selection I'm going for an ultra-consistent guy whose stats shape nicely for this week's test.
Webb Simpson already has a win to his name since the PGA Tour restart when landing the RBC Heritage on his second start back (tipped up by the column at 30/1).
The 35-year-old has since carded another three top ten finished including his last two starts, tying sixth in the Northern Trust last week.
What Simpson lacks for in length he makes up for in accuracy, ranking 22nd for driving accuracy and 13th for shots gained tee to green. He has the lowest scoring average on the PGA Tour this season and is also a top 12 putter, which he'll need to be on this week's speedy greens.
He's a best price 20/1 with William Hill who go six places each week, which is worth a bet as he bids to win for the third time this season. Simpson is 28/1 shot in the US Open betting.
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With Webb Simpson a late withdrawal on Wednesday to rest himself up for the Tour Championship, I've just enough time to put up an alternate as my main selection, with Jon Rahm now a 14/1 chance I like his chances of repeating his efforts at The Memorial last month.
The Spaniard ran away with that win at Muirfield Village and I see this week being a similar set up which will suit the recently dethroned world number one golfer and bounce straight back to the top of the charts with a win here.
Rahm finished 13th in the USPGA before a sixth place last week, thanks in the main to a nice final round of 65 in the Northern Trust.l He ranks top 5 off the tee and in shots gained in total and has the distance and iron play to help him feature at the sharp end here on a long course with a lot of par 4s.
As a late sub, I'm hoping Rahm can make it another winning week.
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Kevin Kisner each-way
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45/1 | |
- 40 under par for his last 10 rounds on Tour
- Two top-5 finishes on his last two starts
In a similar mould to Webb Simpson is my second selection, Kevin Kisner who is a 45/1 chance this week with 888Sport, also paying six places.
A top 15 putter, he ranks 23rd in shots gained in total on the PGA Tour and has been in really strong form in recent weeks with two top five finishes in his last two starts.
In fact, the American is 40 under par for his last 10 PGA Tour rounds, with a scoring average of 66.4 and an incredible +12.13 strokes gained putting. There could possibly be some regression on the putting side of things but I'm happy to have a go at him keeping that level of form with the flat stick this week at the prices.
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Bubba Watson each-way
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100/1 | |
- Top ten stats for driving
- Needs a good week to progress to Tour Championship
For my final selection this week I'm going for Bubba Watson at 100/1 with William Hill playing those six places.
The left-hander sits 58th in the FedEx rankings so needs a big week to make the Tour Championship and although it's been a quiet season with just three top ten finishes, Watson shaped up last week that some form is coming back and could be the beneficiary of this long track.
Ranking 10th for driving distance and 9th in shots gained off the tee, it's Watson's short game which has been his achilles heel this season, but there were signs last week, with the putter at least that he could make a mark this week.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
