AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips: Five each-way picks from California

We have action from Pebble Beach this week and Jamie Broadhurst returns with five each-way selections. 

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 

Onto this week then and we stay in California but move up the coast to the Pebble Beach area. The players have got quite used to contending in these 'multi course' events the last two weeks, and the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is no different.  

The field normally consists of 156 professionals along with 156 amateurs (mostly celebrities) with each amateur paired with a professional golfer.  

This year however, due to the raised status of this event, a more elite crop of players has flocked to Pebble Beach. There will be no more celebrities this year due to this. The field will contain however a handful of local amateur golfers to try their hand against the 80 top professionals here this week.  

The courses this week are Pebble Beach (host course) and Spyglass Hill. In years gone by, the Tour has always used Monterrey Peninsula as a third course for the week. For the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am 2024 we will just have the two courses in play. Through Thursday and Friday, the guys will play the two courses once each day - the top-60 players will then make the cut and then everyone will head and play the Pebble Beach course again for the second time of the weeks over Saturday and Sunday. 

We have mountains of course form to refer to this week along with the six US Open’s that Pebble Beach Golf Links has hosted, most recently the 2019 edition where Gary Woodland was champion. 

Pebble Beach Golf Links 

• - Par 72 
• - 6970 yards approx. 
• - Designers: Jack Nevill & Douglas Grant 
• - 4 x Par-3s - ranging from 106-202 yards 
• - 10 x Par-4s - ranging from 333-483 yards 
• - 4 x Par-5s - ranging from 498-582 yards 
• - Poa Annua greens 
• - Tiny greens 

Spyglass Hill 

• - Par 72 
• - 7040 yards approx. 
• - Robert Trent Jones Snr design 
• - 4 x Par-3s - ranging from 130-203 yards 
• - 10 x Par-4s - ranging from 325-476 yards 
• - 4 x Par-5s - ranging from 549-595 yards 
• - Poa Annua greens 
• - Mostly a tree lined course 
• - Toughest of the three 

Just like last week on the South Course, it is a Poa Annua grass test, but a much shorter and more intricate track in comparison. Several doglegs are on offer off the tee, where players will have to position their golf ball with accuracy with their second shot in mind, especially if the wind blows. Pebble also presents the players with much smaller than Tour average green sizes, hitting them in regulation will be very key, but also getting up and down successfully around the greens when the players miss them. 

Spyglass Hill is next on the list and will probably be the toughest test the players will face this week. However, if its windy on the day the players come to Spyglass then the 13 holes that are tree lined will protect them from the elements, so it is the course to play when the elements are stronger. However, with the other five holes being exposed to the coast, guys with good experience in the wind/on the coast will prevail. Five Par-4s under 410 yards gives players ideal chances to gain ground on these holes and must take advantage of these holes. 

Both courses present the players with less than 7100 yards so conclusions can be drawn up on guys that tend to prevail on the shorter, second shot golf courses.  

Previous winners and their Performance Stats 

• 2023 Winner – Justin Rose -18 
• 2022 Winner – Tom Hoge -19 
• 2021 Winner – Dan Berger -18 
• 2020 Winner – Nick Taylor -19 
• 2019 Winner – Phil Mickelson -19 
• 2018 Winner – Ted Potter Jnr -17 
• 2017 Winner – Jordan Speith -18 

Average stats for the past 7 winners – Average Score -18 

• 25th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee 
• 8th Strokes Gained: Tee2Green 
• 6th Greens in Regulation  
• 10th Strokes Gained: Approach  
• 24th Scrambling 
• 6th Putting Average 
• 12th Par-3 scoring 
• 2nd Par-4 scoring 
• 14th Par-5 scoring 

Summary/Stats to consider 

• - Driving Accuracy 
• - Greens in Regulation/ Strokes Gained: Approach 
• - Putting average (on Poa Annua) 
• - Par-4 scoring 

I will try and keep it nice and simple this week, as there few elements other than form/stats this season that will contribute to the performances this week. Patience will be massive this week, players may have to endure five/six-hour rounds with their amateur partners, so an experience of playing here in this kind of format will be key.  

As the tracks are all mostly coastal (especially Pebble Beach) the weather always plays a massive part as the wind can cause havoc coming off the sea. The conditions at the minute do not look awful, a constant wind of around 10mph will prevail during the week. The issue could come on the Sunday when the guys finish on the host course, currently rain is forecast heavy all day. That mixed with the wind could prove quite the test! So, keep one eye on any changes in that forecast. 

Fairways this week across the three courses are narrower than the average fairways the players face on a regular basis with the narrowest ones coming at the tricky Spyglass Hill course. So, if the guys do want to score low this week which they'll need to do if they want to contend, they will need to avoid the thick luscious rough that awaits them off these fairways. 

From the fairway then, the danger does not go away. These greens are tiny (especially at Pebble Beach), iron play will be crucial this week, as you can see from the Greens in Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach averages from the last seven winners here. Out of the last seven, all of them have been inside the top-10 for Greens in Regulation and all of them have been in the top-20 for Strokes Gained: Approach for that week  

Staying on the stats from above, five of the previous seven winners all ranked in the top-5 for putting averages that week, with just Dan Berger being the odd one out in 2021 when he basically destroyed the field with his short wedges and proximity to the hole. Poa Annua greens are rock solid to putt on and require a certain amount of experience on them to roll it well. Hence the winners here of late are certainly well known for their good work they do year on year with the flat stick. 

Taking care of the Par-4s has always been a key factor here in the last seven years with the winners finishing 2nd each year for Par-4 performance, so scoring low on the 29 Par-4s presented here this week will not harm at all.  

Selections 

There have been four events so far in the 2024 calendar year on the PGA Tour and all four winners have been priced 140/1 or bigger. This week I have returned to putting up five each way picks due to the sporadic odds of recent winners. 1pt each way on all five as usual. Places taken are in brackets, good luck! 

Tony Finau 25/1 
Course Form – 38-23 
2024 Form – 6-25-38 

One from the top of the market to start with before I go into some guys at long odds for this week. Tony Finau has progressively got better in his three starts this year, topping it off with a 6th placed finish last week at the Farmers Insurance Open where he did have chances coming into the back-9 on his Sunday round. His last appearance at Pebble Beach was in 2019 and then in 2017, however this is an event which the big players tend to avoid on the calendar, maybe to do with the fact there is usually lots of slow play involved being paired with celebrities. 18th Strokes Gained: Tee2Green, 20th Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th for Greens in Regulation are great reading coming here this week. 

Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1 
Course Form – MC-6-60-MC 
2024 Form – MC-14 

Matty Fitz is next, and boy, all the attributes of his golf game point to a course layout like this one. Fitz has mixed course form here in his four attempts, but a 6th place in 2022 is enough to go off for me. It is not just about good experience around these shores but experience of just seeing the place is key. Fitzpatrick was victorious at the RBC Heritage stop last year on Tour, Hilton Head where this is played has a lot of similarities to the Pebble Beach course, so I really expect Matt to give it a good go this week and turn his 2024 form around. 

Andrew Putnam 80/1 
Course Form – MC-6-55-38-MC-MC 
2024 Form – 47-10-40 

Andrew Putnam has been showing some good form of late that stretches back into the back end of 2023. Due to the field containing some quality I feel that 80/1 is a steal this week. He has some inconsistent form at the event over the years, but with a top-10 in the mix there, that’s enough to show me he does like the place. With stats on Tour of 6th for Driving Accuracy, 11th for Greens in Regulation and 23rd for Putting, he can turn his season on here this week! 

Brendon Todd 80/1 
Course Form – 2-16-MC-MC-MC-10-45-9 
2024 Form – 33-30 

Now comes a couple of guys who really do sing from the same songbook in terms of their golf games. Starting with Brendon Todd, he hits the ball straight off the tee, he strikes his irons pure and with real good accuracy, he is getting as consistent as ever with the flat stick and his course management brain will help him get round these courses with much success. Todd managed 2nd placed finish from here last year.  

24th Strokes Gained: Approach, 54th Strokes Gained: Putting, 13th for Driving Accuracy and 12th for Proximity to the Hole from the fairway are numbers that just bolster my point for Todd being overpriced this week. 

Lucas Glover 90/1 
Course Form – MC-50-7-11-MC-MC-MC  
2024 Form – MC-29  

 One of my outsiders for this week is Lucas Glover. He has not played at this event each year on Tour; he played it the last two years, but they were his first appearances here for three years. As seen, he has up and down form at this event, but with a 7th and 11th placed finishes mixed in there, it gives us some light. He opened his 2024 campaign well at The Sentry in Hawaii, with a 29th placed finish on a course that does not suit his style whatsoever. Between the Pebble Beach and Spyglass however, Lucas will be able to plod around the course and show off his skills in doing so. Driving Accuracy and Approach to the greens are his forte, with him being 30th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 18th for Driving Accuracy so far this season on Tour.