US PGA Championship Betting Tips: Five selections for second Major of the season
The second major of the year takes place with the PGA Championship being hosted in New York. Our man Jamie Broadhurst has yielded a profit with his last two betting previews and once again has provided us with his best bets, including a 125/1 longshot.
All in all, an entertaining week last week at TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson, where plenty of eagles and birdies were the story of the week. Jason Day was the eventual victor carding a score of -23 to fend off Austin Eckroat and Si Woo Kim by 1 stroke. Jason is now a 2 time Byron Nelson champ after his victory in 2009.
Our best shot of the week going into Sunday was 70/1 shot Joseph Bramlett. He birdied 4 in a rown around the turn to set himself up to place but followed it with 7 straight pars which lost him too much ground, he eventually finished tied for 16th place.
This week we come too the second Golf Major of the year, it is the turn of the East Course at Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford/Rochester, New York.
This is the first time the PGA Tour will see the East Course at Oak Hill CC since it hosted the 2013 PGA Championship when Jason Dufner was the champion that week at -10.
The most recent event the course has held was the 2019 Senior PGA Chanpionship which was won by Ken Tanigawa with a score of just -3.
The notable tournaments held here have been 5 major championships and the 1995 Ryder Cup where Bernard Gallacher’s Europe beat the United States.
The course has changed somewhat, even since the 2019 Senior PGA, let’s take a look at the course and the changes made.
East Course @ Oak Hill
- Par 70, 7394 yards
- Donald Ross design (most recent renovations by Robert Trent Jones, Gil Hanse and Andrew Green upto 2019)
- 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 160-245 yards
- 12 x Par 4s – ranging from 320-500 yards – half of them over 450 yars.
- 2 x Par 5s – 595 and 615 yards
- Fairways/Greens – Bentgrass (Fast)
- Rough – Predominantly Fescue grass – will play thick
- Course is built around Allen Creek, runs through half the holes.
Last 6 PGA Championship Winners
2022 – Justin Thomas -5 (Played at Southern Hills)
2021 – Phil Mickelson -6 (Played at Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course)
2020 – Collin Morikawa -13 (Played at TPC Harding Park)
2019 – Brooks Koepka -8 (Played at Bethpage Black)
2018 – Brooks Koepka -16 (Played at Bellerive GC)
2017 – Justin Thomas -8 (Played at Quail Hollow Club)
Average Winning Score -9
Like every golfing Major, the PGA Championship always gets played on long and difficult courses where grinding out rounds seems to be the trend. Oak Hill CC this week will not be an exception to this. And a lot of people are saying that bombers will prevail here but we can never be 100%.
Before we dig into the field this week and the betting market, lets have a quick look on what stats I am keeping in mind this week when building my betting card and a quick reason as too why they feature.
Stats to consider
Keeping it as simple as I can for readers this week and for myself, as I have a tendency to over analyse big weeks and overthink selections.
Strokes Gained: Off tee Tee/Total Driving stats – Narrow fairways and long penal rough is what the players will face off the tee this week and massive drives will be required on certain holes to carry cleverly placed fairway bunkers that the re-design has made more prominent.
Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach – Greens are small and very well protected by deep bunkers, Iron play is going have to be hot if guys want to compete this week.
Scrambling – Following the redesign of the East Course, runoff areas have been shortened to fairway length grass, meaning they will be quick. The greens are also raised, increasing the speed of the runoff areas and the difficulty navigating them. Not only will players have to Scramble well to overcome these but grinding in general will be a massive factor this week as players will run into trouble at some point, it is a Major at the end of the day.
Putting Average/Bogey Avoidance – Always has to be factored in if a player wants to stay at the top of leaderboards, especially on Major weeks. Greens are large but fast and very undulating (sloped from back-to-front), hence me include 3 putt avoidance also.
This week’s Field
156 players have made the field for this year’s PGA Championship. Players had various ways of qualifying this year, with it striking up various topics of controversy in doing so, but here we are with what looks an incredible field with all of the top 10 in the Official World golf Rankings teeing it up here.
Looking at the Bet365 market who are as a standard offering 8 places in their outright market, it looks as though they are torn between World’s Number 1 and 2 in terms of odds. Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are joint favourites at 8/1 and you cannot really blame them for putting them up the top of the market together.
We start with World Number 1 and the recent Masters Champion Jon Rahm. Recent finishes of 2-15-1-31 and 3 more wins in 2023, Jon has had a fantastic year and has always turned up on golf courses where his favourite club in his bag will be tested to the max (his driver). The amount of run off areas however around these greens that fall into deep bunkers may have the tendency to annoy Jon and get under his collar if his approach is not up to scratch, and with a such a hot temperament, it is quite uncertain to know where Jon will finish if he starts finding these areas of the course.
The form horse in the field, however, is the other joint favourite in World Number 2, Scottie Scheffler. He has had 10 starts on the PGA Tour in 2023; 0 missed cuts, 6 top five finishes with 2 wins included at THE PLAYERS championship and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. So yes, Scottie is on fire and is having an incredibly consistent year, and it seems as though he brings his ‘A’ game at every chance he gets lately. If I was given a large sum of money and told too back one golfer this week, it may well have to be Scottie Scheffler.
Rory McIlroy is his biggest odds he has been in a major for a while at 14/1. The World Number 3 has mixed recent form with a 47-MC-3-MC-2. With 2 very disappointing missed cuts coming at THE PLAYERS championship and The Masters it is really hard to find a positive in his game currently. However, Rory tends to perform well when his back is against the wall and is in bad form, he has come out and expressed a likeness to the East Course as a member here once upon a time. He may turn up and surprise a few, but the chance of that happening at 12/1 is not worth the punt for me.
The Bar is 18/1 and the rest follow from there. 18/1 sees 3 players; LIV fanatic Brooks Koepka who is a 2 time US PGA Champion, consistent ball striker Xander Schauffele and Bentgrass specialist Patrick Cantlay. Xander would be my choice from these 3 just based on him being the overall better driver when considering both distance and accuracy.
Players at a larger price which did intrigue me this week, but I haven’t taken are as follows; Tony Finau at 22/1 for his powerful driving and long iron game. Jason Day was high on the list for this week but was the winner of the Byron Nelson last week, so his price has fallen too short at 25/1. Dustin Johnson 25/1 was the winner on the LIV Tour last week and looks to have all the elements that this course requires to unlock it. And finally, at much bigger odds Shane Lowry at 66/1 is the type of grinder of a golfer that will thrive at this sort of test this week.
PGA Championship Tips
Selections for the PGA Championship
Five selections again this week, all 1pt each way. All are from the Outright market on Bet365 which as I say offers 8 places. Two out the last Three weeks have been profitable, we didn’t have much joy in the first major of the year. But let’s get the results here this week!
Tony Finau 25/1
Recent Form – 23-1-31-26-17
PGA Championship Form – 30-8-4-42-44-MC-10
Starting with Tony, a regular to the preview and one I tipped up for The Masters but he has since won in Mexico where he saw Jon Rahm off quite impressively down the stretch. He is a proven winner now who has won 4 times on Tour since the beginning of 2022. He is ready to step up and make it a big one. His strong driving prowess is one of the best on Tour and his long iron play is exemplary. The putter has heated up this year which has resulted in the high finishes he has been achieving, if it behaves this week, he will be right there come
Sungjae Im 33/1
Recent Form – 1*-8-6-7-16
PGA Championship Form – 17-MC-MC-42
Sungjae Im in my preview on a major championship week? What a shock. I love betting on the guy because he is a breath of fresh air to watch as he does not really have a weakness as such. He is having his typical super consistent season and backed it up when he travelled back to his home country last week and won the Woori Financial Group Championship on the KPGA Tour in South Korea. A long flight indeed to get back to New York but Sungjae plays so many tournaments a year I am sure he is used to jet lag by now! His results on the PGA Tour this year mixed with his performance stats are a match made in heaven and looks to be pointing towards a great week this week!
Tyrrell Hatton 35/1
Recent Form – 5-3-19-34-MC
PGA Championship Form – 13-38-MC-48-10-10-25
My love affair with backing Tyrrell in search of his 2nd victory on the PGA Tour continues this week. I like to think there is plenty of evidence to keep backing him, especially in events on tough golf courses as his resume at big events is getting ever more consistent by the tournament. Five top 10s this year on the PGA Tour and they have come at some of the biggest events, some even being the designated events on Tour. 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship, 2nd at THE PLAYERS, tied 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a tied for 6th finish at the Waste Management Phoenix. Lots of good results, on tough courses, with narrow fairways, that demands a good week with the driver and laser hot iron play… ring a bell? I think he is a dead cert for a good week here this week and his performance stats on the Tour this year backs his case up even more.
Rickie Fowler 75/1
Recent Form – 14-15-10-17-13
PGA Championship Form – 23-8-36-12-5-33-30-3-19-MC-51-58
A seasoned professional in Rickie Fowler now, who has somewhat made a resurgence to his old consistent self this year where he has had 10 top 20 finishes in his 14 starts in 2023 with just the one missed cut coming on his second start of the year. Again like Hatton earlier, he has had really good results at really tough courses this year; Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale, Riviera, TPC Sawgrass and most recently Quail Hollow. He sure seems like the Rickie of old where he had four 2nd places finishes in all four majors back in 2015. If he drives it even better than the average Joe in the field this week he will contend.
Justin Rose 125/1
Recent Form – 25-16-36-6-MC
PGA Championship Form – 13-8-9-29-19-MC-22-4-24-33-3-MC-MC-9-12-41-MC-23
My biggest selection this week, but not one that is without a chance that’s for sure. Rose has found form again this year. Winning at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and finishing in the top 25 six other times out of his 12 starts this year. As seen with his PGA form, he is experienced, he's played on as many tough golf courses in this major as you can think of, and finishes of 13th, 8th and 9th the last three years at Southern Hills, Kiawah Island and TPC Harding Park is mightily impressive. His stats suit the venue, let’s just hope he’s up for it and can ride his big price for us!