Premier League Top Scorer Cheat Sheet
The Premier League season kicks off in just over three weeks’ and after the success of our Cheat Sheets for the summer’s European Championships, we’ll be producing them for various Premier League outright markets and matches in the coming weeks.
We’re starting things off by looking at the Top Goalscorer market. We’ve listed the main players, and have looked at some of their data from last season which includes, goals scored; xG and shots per game.
It’s worth remembering that four places each-way are available with most bookmakers at 1/4 odds. There’s been some big prices land over the last few seasons with Danny Ings placing in 2020 at 200/1 and Sadio Mane being the joint winner at 50/1 in 2019. Read below who a few of the names we are drawn to with our stand out stats.
The Premier League season kicks off in just over three weeks’ and after the success of our Cheat Sheets for the summer’s European Championships, we’ll be producing them for various Premier League outright markets and matches in the coming weeks.
We’re starting things off by looking at the Top Goalscorer market. We’ve listed the main players, and have looked at some of their data from last season which includes, goals scored; xG and shots per game.
It’s worth remembering that four places each-way are available with most bookmakers at 1/4 odds. There’s been some big prices land over the last few seasons with Danny Ings placing in 2020 at 200/1 and Sadio Mane being the joint winner at 50/1 in 2019. Read below who a few of the names we are drawn to with our stand out stats.
Stand Out Stats
Diogo Jota only started 12 Premier League games last season and missed a large proportion of the campaign due to injury. The Portuguese forward scored nine goals and averaged 2.4 shots per game last term but was incredibly accurate with 1.4 on target per game. Only Harry Kane managed a better shots per game average than Jota last season and when we look at shots on target per 90 mins last season, Jota ranked top for players with 10+ appearances with an average of 2.1 on target per 90 mins.
The big question will be whether or not the 24-year-old will be a permanent starter for Jurgen Klopp’s side this season. However, after scoring a Champions League hat-trick and providing some impressive data last term he has the ability to step up and should he start scoring at the rate he was before his injury last season, it’s hard to see him being left out. At 33/1 with Bet365, Jota looks a reasonable each-way prospect with other firms such as Sky Bet taking a much more conservative approach at 11/1.
It’s time to talk about Harry Kane. The ongoing transfer saga involving the Spurs talisman doesn’t seem to be going away any time soon. The 27-year-old is currently 4/7 to remain at his current club with Manchester City 6/5 to capture his signature before September 3rd.
Kane is currently 7/2 with most bookmakers but 4/1 is out there with Boylesports. For those thinking about backing last season’s top goal scorer to win the award again, you may want to think that Kane will further shorten should he move to Manchester City. However, you should also consider that Pep is notorious for rotating his teams and the striker would most likely not feature in every league game like he would at Spurs. Another factor worth considering is that Kane is currently both the main free-kick and penalty taker for Tottenham and although he may get to be penalty taker at City if he did make a move, it’s hard to see him also on free-kick duty ahead of Kevin De Bruyne.
Despite questions over the relatively short price of 7/2 and speculation over which club he will be at come the end of the transfer window, there is no escaping Kane’s figures. He’s a three time winner of this award and over the last seven seasons he’s hit goal totals of: 21, 25, 29, 30, 17, 18 and most recently 23. Kane also increased the amount he was shooting last season, upping his shots per game from 2.7 in 2019/2020 to 3.9 per game in 2020/2021 and all in a season where he was supposed to have a deeper, more creative role. 7/2 is short and our advice would be to try and get him at 5/1 or bigger during the campaign.
Two names we have already mentioned here at BettingOdds.com are both Edinson Cavani and Kai Havertz in our longshots to consider article. Kai Havertz has since been cut from the 100/1 we suggested into a current top price of 66/1. With the transfer of Erling Haaland still up in the air and the departure of Oliver Giroud, we feel Havertz could well find himself easily hitting double digits this term if his data from the end of last season is anything to go by.
During March, April and May Tuchel often opted to play Havertz in the forward role at the head of a false-nine with Timo Werner out wide. To demonstrate just how much more prominent Havertz was having chances at the back end of last season, 4.5 of his total of 6.3xG all season in the Premier League came in April and May!
Edinson Cavani scored 10 Premier League goals in 26 appearances with 13 of those being from the substitutes bench. With a further six goals in just five Europa League appearances Cavani should his class and with an Old Trafford crowd raring to get behind him and show him some love, the fire can continue to burn. Another boost is Jadon Sancho’s arrival and his service should be music to the ears after the 41 league assists he’s provided in the three seasons in Germany. At 40/1 Cavani looks another suitable each-way prospect.
Should Harry Kane remain at Spurs this season one player we’d be looking to avoid in this market is Son Heung-min. The South Korean scored 17 goals last season with 11 coming before christmas. Son only amassed 10.7xG in the campaign due to some impressive long range efforts and we’d be very surprised to see him reaching double figures again this December.
You can view the full market below and compare prices from various bookmakers. Please always gamble responsibly.
Premier League Top Scorer Odds
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22.2%
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18.2%
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5.9%
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4.8%
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4.8%
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2.9%
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4.3%
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3.8%
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3.8%