Northern Trust Tips & Predictions: DJ to bounce back from major disappointment
It's FedEx Cup play-offs time on the PGA Tour and our golf man Russell Palmer is back with another three selections for this week's event, the Northern Trust from TPC Boston...
- Dustin Johnson 1pt each-way @ odds of 20/1 with 888Sport (6 places)
- Jason Day 1pt each-way @ odds of 25/1 with William Hill (8 places)
- Patrick Reed 1pt each-way @ odds of 30/1 with William Hill (8 places)
So here we are, post season! The top 135 in the FedEx Cup rankings will do battle at TPC Boston from Thursday with the top 70 come Sunday night progressing to next week's BMW Championship and one step closer to the Tour Championship and the riches that brings.
With the disrupted season, it was noticeable that there wasn't the usual tension we associate with the Wyndham Championship on Sunday night, with all players guaranteed to keep their cards for the PGA Tour next season.
However, it didn't stop us getting a surprise result in the shape of Jim Herman who absolutely destroyed Sedgefield Country Club over the weekend with scores of 61-63 to win the tournament on -21 from Billy Horschel.
Sent off 500/1 pre-tournament, Herman had to make three birdies in his last four holes on Friday just to make the cut before playing like a man possessed on Saturday and Sunday. It was amazingly his third win on the PGA Tour and he was hugely impressive coming down the stretch to win, in the end, a touch cosily.
My selection Si Woo Kim really disappointed on Sunday, going into the final round with a two shot lead I dared believe I was going to get a third winner since lockdown, but we had to make do with place returns as he shot a level par final round to slip back into a tie for third place.
The Market Leaders
Onwards and upwards though as we welcome a stellar cast to TPC Boston, which hosted this event last time in 2018, won by Bryson DeChambeau.
With the majority of the top players taking last week off following the USPGA Championship, they dominate the betting on their return.
DeChambeau and Justin Thomas head the betting at 12/1, whilst Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are 14/1 shots.
I was quite interested in McIlroy this week should he be bigger in the betting, but alas he seems eternally priced up a 14/1 shot despite his sketchy form and too short for me.
For my first selection this week I'm going for Dustin Johnson, who is a best price 20/1 with 888Sport.
The American finished second last time out in the USPGA Championship when leading after 54 holes, but it would be peak DJ to miss out on yet another major when contending only to hack up here.
At 20/1 I think he represents the best value of the market leaders and 888Sport are going six places this week.
Johnson has won this event twice before and has three top ten finishes on this course in his last six visits.
The second place in the USPGA was preceded by a 12th at the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational. He also has a win to his name since the restart of the PGA Tour, landing the Travelers Championship.
The FedEx Cup play-offs see the cream rise to the top and I'm picking three players from the top third of the betting this week.
I was on Jason Day at TPC Harding Park on his last start in the USPGA and I like him again here at 25/1 with William Hill who go eight places this week.
The Australian has been a model of consistency since the PGA Tour restart and all that's missing is a win.
Put up at 40/1 a fortnight ago where he ended up finishing T4, that was his fourth straight top ten-seven finish and he's playing on a course where he three top ten finishes in his last ten years in a tournament he won back in 2015.
Ranking 15th in shots gained tee to green and third in shots gained around the green, I'm hopeful Day can perform well here again this week.
My last pick this week is a smidge bigger in the betting at 30/1 with Hills, but like DJ and Day has plenty of recent form and experience at this tournament and on this course.
Patrick Reed didn't take last week off, finishing 9th, his third top-10 result since the restart.
He also has three top six finishes in his last four attempts at TPC Boston, and won this tournament 12 months ago when played at Liberty National Golf Club.
Ranked 6th in the FedEx standings, Reed has only taken one week off since the Tour restarted ten weeks ago, has seven top-10 finishes this season on the PGA Tour winning the WGC-Mexico Championship earlier in the year.
A gritty player he's getting into payday season and will be really motivated to play well here. A top-10 putter, he also ranked 10th in shots gained total this season and completes my trio of golf tips.
Best of the rest
I liked the look of Billy Horschel last week and he finished second at the Wyndham when very much looking like the winner coming down the stretch. He'd been putting up some really good stats without really putting the rounds together and providing he's not peaked, he could be some value this week at 60/1.
Tony Finau was the butt of many a joke on social media following Jim Herman's win on Sunday night due to his 'inferior' win record, so for that reason alone I'd love him to shove it down the detractors throats this week, the American has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts on the PGA Tour and was 4th place last time he teed it up at TPC Boston in 2018.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
