BMW PGA Championship Tips: Back Lowry to go well at Wentworth

This week we have one of the key events on the DP World Tour with the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. After another week of profit, Jamie Broadhurst returns to preview the action and provide us with his best bets

Another great week for the preview last week of the Irish Open, which saw 18/1 Min Woo Lee and 90/1 Connor Syme finish in the places with Jordan Smith unfortunately missing out by one shot. Giving the preview profit for the 4th week in a row!

Eventual winner was Swedish star Vincent Normann managed his second win of the year following his earlier victory on the PGA Tour in the year. It was a tight leaderboard coming down the stretch in Ireland in some tough conditions with people dropping shots all over the course, Vincent was the one who stayed steady throughout the final round on route to victory.

BMW PGA Championships

For me this is one of the tournaments I always look out for when the DP World schedule is announced for the season, mainly due to the fact that I have been four out the last five years and I’m attending the Saturday again here this year, so if you’re around for the third round, drop us a message!

Played at the West Course at Wentworth GC, located in Virginia Waters, Surrey, the BMW PGA is considered the ‘home’ event of the DP World Tour as Wentworth is the home of the Tour and acts as its headquarters.

West Course @ Wentworth GC

• Par 72
• 7260 yards approx.
• Harry Colt design (1926) Ernie Els Re-design (2009/2016)
• Bentgrass/Fescue/Poa Annua Fairways
• Fescue, Rye grass Rough
• Bentgrass Greens
• 4 x Par 3s – range from 154-203 yards
• 10 x Par 4s – range from 396-491 yards
• 4 x Par 5s – range from 520-610 yards
• Classical layout, tree lined, thick rough, large undulating greens

What a course we have on offer this week and what a course it is to walk around. The course is always in immaculate condition and is well designed as it weaves itself through the trees perfectly, especially the front nine.  

The 2016 renovation performed by Ernie Els was a big one. It came just a week after Chris Wood’s victory. It entailed bunkers being removed, all remaining bunkers being rebuilt and re-sanded to make them deeper and more punishing. This wasn’t the major change made by any stretch of imagination but the bunkers that are now in play especially off the tee, if found they are a penalty in themselves.

All 18 greens were stripped of its Bentgrass/Poa Annua layout and were relayed with Creeping Bentgrass. Under each green, a sub-air system was also installed. This allows the groundskeepers to control the amount of moisture in them going into each round. Note – the only other course on the two tours from memory with this sub-air system is Augusta, and that is also played on large and undulating Bentgrass greens so maybe worth a look.

Stats to consider

• SG: OTT/Accuracy
• SG: T2G/GIR
• Scrambling

The West Course at Wentworth will test pretty much every aspect of the player’s games this week, it’s a classic test for an all round golfer. 

Tree lined fairways and thick rough always means that SG: OTT and Driving Accuracy will be highlighted that week and it is a major factor here. A few forced layups for the players where they can’t and won’t be taking drivers off the tee will mean they have to rely on their woods to get them in position to attack the greens.

SG: T2G and GIR have always ranked well here. Tyrrell in 2020 possessed some serious game with his wedges and around the green game which clearly won it for him. Other than that though, the theme of the Wentworth week has been hitting the driver straight more often than not, finding the tricky greens in regulation but making sure you get up and down if players do miss them.

Field/Odds

World Number Two Rory McIlroy leads the market this week at 13/2. 16-11-4 are his last three starts on both Tours. He was in contention last week in Ireland up until his last 12/13 holes which included a triple bogey and some errant shots for sure. However, on a course that demands a lot from the driver, it could be Rory’s time here on the West Course this week. All depends on how he putts on these surfaces where he has struggled before.

Recent Tour Champion on the PGA Tour, Viktor Hovland comes next in the market at 8/1. Hovland finished his PGA Tour season with back-to-back wins and was super impressive the last month or so on Tour. His Tee2Green game is one of the best and most accurate in the game, consistently finding greens for fun. 

Jon Rahm comes next at 15/2, very rare you will find Jon third favourite on a DP World Tour event, but that just is in respect to the depth and quality in the field this week. The 2023 Masters Champion has had a really successful year winning four times on the PGA Tour. He did go off the boil for his standards somewhat at the end of the PGA Tour season so it will be interesting to see how he fares this week on a tight set up he finished second on last year.

Tommy Fleetwood, Tyyrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick then take their places in the market at the 16/1-18/1 range. A quality trio who will all be excited for another Ryder cup campaign later in the month in Italy. They have all had success here as their games are very similar. Accurate iron play and brilliant around and on the greens. Slight preference would be for Tommy Fleetwood this week however out of the three, which is mainly based on how these three ended the PGA Tour season with Tommy having the most success.

But as I said above, with the depth in the field this week we have some unbelievable bits of value in the market a bit lower down the betting board, I am sure they will be included somewhere in my selections for this week.

This week’s selections

Four selections this week again, just the 1pt each way this week as I have put up a Top-20 tip which I will place 2pts on. 10pts in total staked as always! Let’s keep the profit going.

Shane Lowry 20/1
Recent Form – 3-MC-51-MC-12
Course Form – 1-17-13-11-15-6-MC-6-2-12-68-4-65

13 times Lowry has tee’d it up at Wentworth and he has only missed the 36-hole cut just the once. His average score per round is just over 68 which is roughly -5 around here, impressive stuff right? He has been picked as a captains pick by Luke Donald for the Ryder Cup at the end of the month after some strange form for his standards this year. However, he came back and shushed his critics with a tie for 3rd place finish last week in Ireland, I can only think that he will pick up further confidence coming back to a place he clearly has an eye for as defending champion.

Justin Rose 33/1
Recent Form – 22-20-MC-4
Course Form – 6-37-8-12-38-25-2-MC-10-MC-2-11-32

Keeping with the experienced players here, Rose has got a win under his belt this year on the PGA Tour on the iconic Pebble Beach course where he played a blinder all week. Rose has played here in 15 tournaments with a stroke average of just over 70. He drives it straight and his temperament is one of the best in the game and will be very much needed here on this course.

Adrian Meronk 40/1
Recent Form – 23-13-62-23-MC-15-3
Course Form – 32-MC

Perhaps the unluckiest player not to be selected by Luke Donald for the Ryder Cup. Meronk has won four times in the last two years on tour and is slowly staking his name as one of the pillars of the DP World Tour currently. His Tee2Green game is phenomenal, and he showed his mental strength by coming out last week post Ryder Cup disappointment and posting a solid week in 23rd place. 40/1 is the biggest number we have been presented with for Adrian for months and I can’t give that one up.

Nicolai Hojgaard 40/1
Recent Form – 5-3-14-MC-23-6
Course Form – MC-20

Just like Meronk, 40/1 for Nicolai is huge odds considering he has been 20/1 or lower pretty much all year on Tour. One of the form guys in the game currently who is on a high from getting a captains pick from Donald for the Ryder Cup for sure. He hits it miles and is unreal with his long irons which will more than benefit him this week. Confident on this one!

Masahiro Kawamura Top-20 finish 5/1
Course Form – 20-17-18
Recent Form – MC-9-MC-8

A guy who I have tipped two years running at Wentworth and actually have followed him around the course the last three years. Kawamura does not do a lot wrong, he is deadly accurate off the tee and with his irons. He is not a heavy scorer but does not go away and is a tough competitor. As you can see, he has been in the top-20 in all three of his starts here. 5/1 is a big price!