Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Tips & Predictions: Bank on course specialist Kaymer
The European Tour returns this week from its winter hiatus in the sunny UAE for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and I've three bigger priced golf betting tips for you to get stuck into.
It's a quality field lining up at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club National course, including Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas.
A standing dish of a venue on the European Tour we have a tonne of course form to go on and some encouragement in terms of the prices of past winners. Tommy Fleetwood in 2018 (18/1) and Rickie Fowler in 2016 (14/1) aside, the shortest starting price of the winner in the last nine editions of the tournament is 45/1 (Shane Lowry in 2019).
The prize money on offer and sponsor exemptions mean whilst we get some top players, it's also the first bit of tournament golf for the vast majority of the field and I'd class that as a bit of a leveller.
Market Leaders
The aforementioned McIlroy and Thomas head the betting at 6/1 and 13/2, which feel far too short at this stage of the year, especially McIlroy who, despite excellent course form here with seven top three finishes in his last eight appearances, he hasn't actually won the darn thing.
McIlroy also comes here off the back of one of his most subdued year's since becoming a top player on either Tour and it just feels like a massive leap of faith to be backing him at 6's when we have the likes of Thomas, Fleetwood, Hatton and a host of other top players on the European Tour.
Thomas is also skinny at 13/2 but he does have the advantage of already playing this year, which none of the others at the top of the betting can boast. That said, the performance in the Sentry Tournament of Champions was blighted by comments on the course picked up by the microphone which justifiably brought on criticism and one of his main sponsors pulling their deal on him.
How will that affect him this week I don't know, but at 13/2 I'm not going to be putting my money down.
Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood both warrant their prices in the market at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively. Fleetwood has won here twice in the last four years, back-to-back- in 2017/2018 and then runner up 12 months ago.
The competitive nature of the top of the betting has seen me go further down the list though for my three. All three have been tipped up with Unibet who are best price, paying six places. As usual in the golf, Paddy Power and Betfair are going eight places this week if you want some extra insurance but a shorter price.
This week's golf betting tips:
I'm starting off this week with Martin Kaymer at odds of 33/1 with Unibet paying six places.
The German enjoyed a good second half of the year in 2020, recording three top 15 finishes in his last four outings, including a 5th at the Italian Open and a tie for 14th at the season ending DP World Championship.
Ranking 2nd on the European Tour in 2020 for shots gained, Kaymer's approach play is especially what I like about him this week paired with his course form.
He ranked 1st for shots gained approaching the green last year and 8th for greens in regulation.
Add that to this week's track where not only has he won three times between 2008 and 2011, he also shot the tournaments record low four day total score of 24 under par in his third win.
It's no secret that his overall form had dipped in the last half a doxen years, but his form here at the National Course also stacks up, with no missed cuts since 2012 and four further top ten finishes.
At 33/1 this week I think he'll give us a decent run for our money.
Second up is Bernd Wiesberger who is another each-way selection at slightly bigger odds of 40/1, again with Unibet.
The Austrian ranked 4th for shots gained approaching the green in 2020 and also has solid course form to his name with three top ten finishes in his last six visits.
Three top tens last season including here 12 months ago, Wiesberger is no stranger to the winning circle, with victory three times in 2019 which saw him finish third in the Race to Dubai and he's matured to a very consistent performer who can go well here at a course he likes.
I've gone for a big priced third selection this week in the shape of George Coetzee at 160/1 with Unibet.
It's undoubtedly a talented field this week but Coetzee on his day has bags of talent himself and it wasn't that long ago that he was winning multiple times, albeit in weaker fields.
Whilst his key stats don't necessarily stack up this week, he's playing on a course where had three consecutive top ten finishes between 2012 and 2014.
Having slipped off the radar in recent seasons, Coetzee bounced back in 2020 with five consecutive top ten finishes including a win in the Portugal Masters and finished in the top 30 at the DP World Championship.
Coetzee's streaky nature could see him go well at a massive price this week and would anybody really be that surprised?
Best of the rest
There's a few I like here to spring a surprise at bigger prices given the nature of this being the first tournament for six weeks for a lot of the field.
Scott Jamieson is a consistent type who had a top ten here last year and another three top tens in 2020, is a big price at 125/1 this week whilst the likes of Pablo Larrazabal who is a former winner of this tournament in 2014 and has had two subsequent top tens here can be backed at 160/1.
There's also two at 200/1 I wouldn't be surprised to go well. I'm a big fan of Gavin Green who I put up a number of times last year and if coming back playing to his full potential can definitely feature in the top ten, whilst Alexander Levy showed signs with two top tens in his last four starts in 2020. He's streaky but when he's hot he's hot and at 200/1 is worth a small play.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly. I'm going to keep showing my record post lockdown for a few weeks until we have some 2021 results to show.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- Tyrrell Hatton - BMW PGA Championship - advised at 16/1
- John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
- Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Colin Morikawa - T7 Sony Open In Hawaii - advised at 14/1
- Xander Schauffele - T5 Sentry Tournament of Champions - advised at 10/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Italian Open - advised at 45/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
- Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
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