WGC Workday Championship Tips & Predictions: Rahm ready at Concession
Russell Palmer returns with another three golf betting tips for this week's WGC-Workday Championship, the first World Golf Championship event of the calendar year...
Last week was a case of what could have been. Going into the weekend, two of my three picks were placed handily tied second and sixth but neither could move their 36 hole score along at all which was pretty disappointing, especially from Joaquin Niemann who, when tied for second place shot 78/72 on Saturday and Sunday.
All credit to those who backed the winner Max Homa who was around 60/1. Having played well the week before at Pebble I thought maybe the edge had been taken off his price given the strength of the field but he won well, seeing off Tony Finau in the play-off. Finau played brilliantly carding a final round 64 to put him in with a chance of winning only his second tournament but it wasn't to be.
Already on the shortlist for the Masters in seven weeks time, Riviera form correlates well to Augusta and combined with his ball striking and overall form I'll be having a strong look at Finau come April 11th.
This week's event sees another strong line-up and although there's only 71 players lining up and there is no cut, I've three picks I'm pretty pumped about having a big week.
Dustin Johnson heads the betting at 13/2 but I'll continue to back him for the Open Championship later in the year than take a price like this.
I do however like the second favourite who is available to back at double figure prices and he's amongst my three to follow this week.
Whilst most of the attention is centred around Dustin Johnson, I feel a little like Jon Rahm (10/1 with William Hill) is going a bit under the radar, which feels a bit weird to say given he's second favourite here and the current world number two.
The Spaniard has had five top tens in his last six starts and although Johnson has picked up a couple of wins during that time, I feel as though Rahm is primed to get back into the winning circle and this week's venue will play to his strengths.
A long course, strength off the tee will help and Rahm ranks fourth on the PGA Tour for shots gained off the tee this season. Add to this his ball striking skills, Rahm ranks 17th on the PGA TOur this season for greens in regulation (72.22%), which is fifth in this week's field representatives from the US Tour.
Rahm's solid all round game gives him a great chance this week and I especially like that he's coming here off a final round 66 at Riviera last week.
The Spaniard is -87 under par for his last seven tournaments on the PGA Tour.
The 26-year-old's two wins on the PGA Tour last season came off the back of great final rounds the week before.
When landing the Memorial he shot a 64 the Sunday before and he also shot a final round 65 at the Northern Trust before landing the BMW Championship a week later.
Having shot a third round one over par 72, he clearly found something on Sunday and I'm hoping he can take that momentum through on Thursday.
Second up is a favourite of mine, Tyrrell Hatton who is best price 22/1 this week with Unibet who are paying six places.
Like Rahm, Hatton has been in very good form, winning twice in his last ten starts, most recently in Abu Dhabi, his third win in the last year.
Hatton has rocketed up to 5th in the world following this good spell and he's a serious player here.
He ranks in the top 20 for shots gained off the tee in this week's field based on both the PGA Tour and European Tour stats, whilst he's top ten for greens in regulation amongst this field and also top ten for putting.
He's shown he can win State-side landing the Arnold Palmer Invitational around this time of last year, also in Florida.
Last of the block this week I'm taking a chance on Harris English at odds of 60/1 with William Hill paying the seven places.
The American enjoyed a long awaited return to form in 2020. Having won a PGA title in both 2013 and 2014, English wasn't really living up to his potential until last year where he recorded five top ten finishes and finished out the season tied for 12th in the Tour Championship.
In the 2021 season English already has five top tens to his name including a win, in the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the start of the year and I think he's overpriced here.
He shows up as ranking 14th in the field for all three of the metrics I'm having a close look at this week. 20th in the field for shots gained off the tee (PGA Tour rated players), 20th for greens in regulation and 9th for shots gained putting.
He's missed his last two cuts but that's factored into his price, 19th in the world rankings at the peak of his form I'd rate him half the price this week after a short break.
Best of the rest
I wouldn't discourage backers sticking with Joaquin Niemann this week. At 55/1 he's a smidge bigger in the betting and whilst it's a more competitive field this week he may have been a bit rusty and his weekend play could be excused.
Another at a big price is Belgium's Thomas Detry who is available to back at 150/1. Predominantly playing on the European Tour where he's yet to get a win, he returns to a track where he finished runner up behind Bryson DeChambeay in the 2018 College Championship and his stats on the European Tour suggest he can be competitive. A small each-way at 150's looks decent as well as including him in your DFS lineups.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly. I'm going to keep showing my record post lockdown for a few weeks until we have some 2021 results to show.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- Daniel Berger - Pebble Beach Pro-am - advised at 14/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - BMW PGA Championship - advised at 16/1
- John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
- Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Colin Morikawa - T7 Sony Open In Hawaii - advised at 14/1
- Xander Schauffele - T5 Sentry Tournament of Champions - advised at 10/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Italian Open - advised at 45/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
- Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
