UK General Election 2024 Betting Guide: Everything you need to know
Posted: 12:05 Thursday 25th April 2024
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The UK government will call a General Election for either later this year or early in 2025, with it closing on the maximum term of five years since Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to an 80-seat majority in 2019.
There have been two Prime Ministers since then. Liz Truss took over from Johnson after he stepped down in 2022 but lasted only seven weeks and was replaced by the incumbent Rishi Sunak.
After 13 years of Labour reign, the Tories returned to power in 2010, forming a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats before David Cameron won a majority of 10 seats in 2015.
He stepped down after the Brexit Referendum in 2016 and his successor, Theresa May, won the following year's snap election, which was called to "strengthen (her) hand" in Brexit negotiations, but suffered a net loss.
Johnson then led the Tories to their 80-seat victory in 2019, receiving 43.6% of the vote, the highest percentage of any party since 1979.
The date of the next election is still to be confirmed but it is odds-on to be called between October and December 2024.
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How A Party Wins An Election
For General Elections, the UK uses a 'First-past-the-post' system which allows voters to select their preferred candidate standing in their constituency to become a Member of Parliament (MP). That person then wins a seat for the party they represent and the party with the most seats wins.
After 14 years out of power, Labour are heavily odds-on at around 1/8 to win the most seats at the next election, with the Conservatives trading between 7/1 and 12/1 and it is around 40/1 for any other party - these include Reform UK and UKIP, who currently do not hold seats.
Other parties with sitting MPs are the Liberal Democrats and Green Party, while some parties from the devolved nations, such as the Scottish Nationalist Party and Wales' Plaid Cymru and Northern Ireland's Sinn Fein and DUP, are among those represented in Westminster.
That expected result would see Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer named Prime Minister, the first from his party since Gordon Brown was defeated in 2010. Those who expect Labour to win may also feel Starmer is worth backing despite being between 1/5 and 1/10 to be PM, with Sunak 8/1 to retain his position. If the Tories decide to replace Sunak before the election, Penny Mordaunt is 13/1, Kemi Badenoch is 25/1, and even 25/1 Cameron is in the running to be the next PM.
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How Many Seats Are Needed For A Majority
Candidates who win seats serve their consistency by sitting in the House of Commons. The Commons has 650 seats, so a party needs to win 326 seats to claim a majority. However, this number can be lowered if you take out the Speaker's seat and those won by the Irish Republican party, Sinn Fein, who choose not to sit in the UK Parliament due to ideological differences - a policy known as Abstentionism.
A series of by-election defeats, which are votes called when a Commons seat becomes vacant due to an MP standing down, has whittled the Conservatives' 80-seat majority down to 50.
These losses and the apparent mood of the country mean Labour are, again, heavy odds-on to win the 326 seats that would guarantee them a majority and give them an advantage when trying to implement policies. Their lead in the polls suggests they are worth backing, albeit at around 1/7.
No overall majority is the outcome if none of the parties wins 326 seats and is available at around 8/1. That might be worth looking at if the campaigning becomes particularly vicious and voters choose to vote on personality rather than policy.
The winner could choose to form a minority government, which can prove tricky as the other parties combined would have more seats than the government and could conspire to work against them.
To counter this, the winners may follow the Tories' decision in 2010 and ally themselves with a like-minded party that has enough seats to provide a majority and form a coalition government.
The most likely coalition for Labour is with the Lib Dems, although the support for Starmer means a Lib-Lab partnership is as high as 20/1 with some bookmakers.
UK General Election 2024 Odds
The Betting Breakdown
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