Democratic Nominee Odds US Election 2024: Biden odds-on favourite despite recent drift

The 2024 US presidential election is poised to be a pivotal moment in American politics. Scheduled to take place on Tuesday 5th November, this quadrennial event will determine the nation's next leader. Today at bettingodds.com we’ve taken a look at the odds for the Democratic nominee with Joe Biden the bookies favourite, despite a small recent drift in the market.

Biden still the clear favourite 

Priced at 4/11 with most trusted betting sites and 1/2 on the Betfair Exchange, Joe Biden is the current market favourite to be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US election. The current occupant of the White House is considered the most likely candidate to stand for the Democrats, however there are some who have questions over his age with Biden already being 80, with a second term potentially ending when he is 85.

Biden has repeatedly hit back at those who say he should not run for a second term as president. The latest polls say that his approval ratings have dropped over recent months, but odds of 4/11 suggest that punters still have plenty of confidence in Biden being the Democratic candidate. Those odds imply a 73.3% chance of success.

So why is Joe Biden still such a short price considering his age and recent drop in approval ratings? Well, an incumbent President is unlikely to witness a rebellion within his own party. In the current political climate, party unity reigns supreme, and without it, any potential Presidential candidate's prospects are slim. The Democrats are desperate to retain the White House and, therefore, are hesitant to consider anyone other than Biden for the nomination.

Who else could step in? 

Second favourite in the market is The Governor of California Gavin Newsom. Back in November 2022, Newsom stated how he would not be running and is backing Biden to win, however as we know, things aren’t always straight forward in US politics and if the current president was to drop out, we think Newsom would jump at the chance. Most bookmakers go 13/2 that Gavin Newsom ends up being the Democratic Nominee. 

In July, punters could have grabbed 25/1 with bet365 for Michelle Obama, with her odds now having been slashed into 10/1. The wife of the former president has stated numerous times that she will not be running, however Joe Rogan’s comments in February reignited the debate about her political aspirations. 

Traditionally, one would expect a Vice President to be a potential replacement for a president that has low approval ratings, although that doesn’t seem to be the case with Kamala Harris. Most firms go 14/1 for the first ever female Vice President to become the Democratic nominee, imply just a 6.7% chance of this coming to fruition.

The only other name in the market priced at shorter than 20/1 in the market is Robert Kennedy Jr, the nephew of former President John F Kennedy. Known for having controversial views on Covid-19 and being an anti-vaxxer. Kennedy is currently 18/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power to be named the party candidate. Find a full list of odds from some of the most trusted betting sites below.