Selby & Ainsty By-Election Odds: Latest prices say Labour win in North Yorkshire

On Thursday, voters go to the polls in three by-elections. Rishi Sunak faces the possibility of losing three seats and below we have the odds for the constituency of Selby and Ainsty. 

Selby & Ainsty

Not since Harold Wilson in 1968 has a prime minister lost three seats at by-elections on the same day, but that could be a real possibility on Thursday 20 July. 

The Selby and Ainsty constituency has remained under Conservative control since its establishment in 2010. The by-election came about as a result of Nigel Adams, the sitting Conservative MP, declaring his decision to step down from his position. 

An 18 point swing is required here for a Labour win. This goes beyond the requirements for the party to secure an overall majority in the upcoming general election, surpassing both the necessary national 12-point swing and the 16-point swing indicated by recent polls. Notably, if Labour succeeds in gaining Selby, it will set a remarkable record for the size of majority overturned at a by-election.

Candidates 

• Andrew Gray (Independent)
• Claire Holmes (Conservative Party)
• Mike Jordan(Yorkshire Party)
• Dave Kent (Reform UK)
• Keir Mather (Labour Party)
• Nick Palmer (Independent)
• Guy Phoenix (Heritage Party)
• Sir Archibald Stanton (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
• Matt Walker (Liberal Democrats)
• Arnold Warneken (Green Party)
• John Waterson (Social Democratic Party)
• Luke Wellock, (Climate Party)
• Tyler Wilson-Kerr (Independent)

Odds

Priced at 1/8, Labour are the odds-on favourites to be victorious in Selby and Ainsty. Those odds imply an 89% chance of success with William Hill, with the Conservatives out at 11/2 and Liberal Democrats 100/1. You can find all the prices below.

What are by-elections and why are they happening? 

A by-election is a process to elect a new member of parliament when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant outside of a general election. Such vacancies may arise when an MP passes away or resigns.

The recent by-elections were triggered by the resignations of three MPs following separate controversies. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who represented Uxbridge and South Ruislip, decided to step down after receiving a report from a committee of MPs investigating whether he misled Parliament regarding Partygate - a series of Covid lockdown parties in Downing Street. The committee recommended a severe punishment that could have resulted in him facing a by-election.

Nigel Adams, the MP for Selby and Ainsty, who was a close ally of Mr. Johnson, announced his resignation the next day. His decision came amidst controversy over Mr. Johnson's resignation honours list, on which Mr. Adams was notably absent.

Additionally, a by-election was also held in Somerton and Frome after its former MP, David Warburton, resigned following his admission of using cocaine. He also faced accusations of making unwanted advances towards two women, leading to his suspension from the Conservative Party in the previous year. An investigation into the allegations of sexual misconduct has been ordered, which Mr. Warburton denies.