Uxbridge & South Ruislip By-Election Odds: Latest Betting says Labour win in West London

Three by-elections take place on Thursday in England as voters go to the polls. Below we’ve taken a look at the latest odds for the constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip 

Thursday, 20th July might mark a significant moment in political history as there hasn't been a prime minister who lost three seats at by-elections on the same day since Harold Wilson in 1968. 

In 2010, the Uxbridge constituency saw the emergence of a Conservative stronghold, electing their candidates since then. Over the past three elections, Boris Johnson, the former Prime Minister, has achieved remarkable success, securing more than half the votes each time. Notably, Uxbridge defied the broader London trend by supporting Brexit.

• Selby & Ainsty by-election odds

Nestled on the outskirts of metropolitan London, Uxbridge serves as a suburban commuter town and boasts a blend of a university presence and the prestigious RAF Northolt. While the area has not undergone the same level of urban development as other parts of the capital, the demographics have been gradually shifting in favor of the Labour party.

Recent census data highlights a noteworthy shift in the population, indicating a younger, more educated, and more diverse community compared to a decade ago. These indicators suggest a growing potential for Labour's support within the constituency, adding an intriguing dynamic to the upcoming elections.

Candidates 

• Blaise Baquiche (Liberal Democrat)
• Danny Beales (Labour)
• Cameron Bell (Independent)
• Count Binface (Count Binface Party)
• Piers Corbyn (Let London Live)
• Laurence Fox (Reclaim Party)
• Steve Gardener (Social Democratic Party)
• Ed Gemmell (Climate Party)
• Sarah Green (Green Party)
• Kingsley Hamilton (Independent)
• Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
• Howling Hope (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
• 77 Joseph (Independent)
• Rebecca Jane (UKIP)
• Enomfon Ntefon (Christian Peoples Alliance)
• Leo Phaure (Independent)
• Steve Tuckwell (Conservative Party)

Odds 

Priced at 1/12, Labour are the odds-on favourites for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Those odds imply an 92.3% chance of victory with BetVictor, with the Conservatives out at 7/1 and Liberal Democrats 100/1. You can find all the prices from a list of trusted betting sites below.

What are by-elections and what are they happening? 

A by-election serves as a means to elect a new member of parliament when a vacancy arises in the House of Commons outside of a general election. Such vacancies may occur due to the passing away or resignation of an MP.

In recent events, three by-elections were triggered by the resignations of three MPs, each following separate controversies. Notably, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, representing Uxbridge and South Ruislip, chose to step down in light of a report from a committee of MPs investigating whether he had misled Parliament regarding the Partygate scandal. The committee's recommendation of severe punishment left him potentially facing a by-election.

The subsequent day, Nigel Adams, the MP for Selby and Ainsty and a close ally of Mr. Johnson, also announced his resignation amid the controversy surrounding Mr. Johnson's resignation honours list, on which Mr. Adams notably found himself absent.

In addition to these developments, Somerton and Frome saw a by-election due to the resignation of its former MP, David Warburton. Mr. Warburton admitted to using cocaine and faced accusations of making unwanted advances towards two women, leading to his suspension from the Conservative Party in the previous year. An investigation into the allegations of sexual misconduct has been initiated, although Mr. Warburton vehemently denies them.