Tour Championship Tips: Best bets for the season finale from East Lake

Our man Jamie Broadhurst nailed a 16/1 winner and 35/1 second place last week and he’s back for more this week with a full preview and selections for the Tour Championship.

First and second. They were the results from last week’s tips at the BMW Championship! Viktor Hovland grabbed the victory at 16/1, after having an unreal last round of 61 and back nine of just 28 strokes. Matthew Fitzpatrick finished in a tie for 2nd at 35/1. 17pts profit on the week to go with what has been a successful run for the previews with a 90/1 winner and a 75/1 place two weeks ago at the Wyndham Championships. 

Tour Championship 

We are onto the PGA Tour 2022/2023 season finale and the last FedEx Cup playoff event where the top 30 guys in the FedEx Cup standings will battle it out for the big one, not only for the Tour Championship trophy but also for the FedEx Cup. 

Players will travel to the usual venue of East Lake GC in Georgia, Atlanta to face the very narrow and intricate test that awaits them. 

Before getting into the course, I will make you guys aware of the format of the Tour Championships that’s been the same for the last four years now. Based on their ranking in the FedEx going into the Tour Champs, most of the players will be rewarded by starting the tournament off at a certain number under par, the closer you are to the top of the rankings means you start lower under par etc. Let’s get into it and show you how they’ll line up this week. 

FedEx Ranking Starting Score 

• 1st Scottie Scheffler -10 
• 2nd Viktor Hovland   -8 
• 3rd Rory McIlroy -7 
• 4th Jon Rahm -6 
• 5th Lucas Glover -5 
• 6th-15th -3 
• 16th-20th -2 
• 21st-25th -1 
• 26th-30th   E 

Quite a spread to the field as you can see with World Number one and FedEx number one Scottie Scheffler poised to cap off what has been an unbelievably consistent season for him. It is the second year in a row that he has come to East Lake to be in the number one position. 

East Lake Golf Club  

• Par 70, 7350 yards approx. 
• Donald Ross design 1913, Rees Jones renovations 2016 
• 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 200-238 yards, all over 200 yards 
• 12 x Par 4s – ranging from 380-530 yards, 7/12 over 440 yards 
• 2 x Par 5s – 505 yards, 579 yards, both reachable in 2 for all players 
• Zoysia grass – fairways which are tree lined and undulating 
• Bermuda rough – thick and gnarly just like last week  
• Bermuda greens – undulating and notoriously fast 

Just like last week at Olympia Fields and then the week before at TPC Southwind, the course will play long and there will be premium again on the tee shots, getting it on the narrow fairways in the right places whilst avoiding the trees that line each fairway. 

Last four winners and their average stats 

• 2022 overall winner – Rory McIlroy -21 (Rory McIlroy winner)
• 2021 overall winner – Patrick Cantlay -21 (Kevin Na/Rahm 72-hole winner) 
• 2020 overall winner – Dustin Johnson -21 (Xander Schauffele 72-hole winner) 
• 2019 overall winner – Rory McIlroy -13 (Rory McIlroy 72-hole winner) 

Average stats for the past four winners:
5th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee  
2nd Strokes Gained: Tee2Green  
5th Greens in Regulation  
7th Strokes Gained: Approach  
5th Scrambling                   
6th Putting 

Two types of winners at this event the last four years that you can bet on, the overall Tour Championship winner with the starting aggregate score and then a 72-hole winner who shot the lowest score on the week. I will be delving into both markets as we did the last couple of years when I did find some success here for sure. 

Stats to consider this week. 

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Tee2Green 
Dog legged, tree lined fairways and thick rough surrounding the fairways. The guys will have to be absolutely stellar with their driver and in general from T2G this week. 

Greens in Regulation 
Several greens here are thin, small, and long in shape, tricky to hit especially from the thick rough. Finding these greens in regulation will be the play of the week if the guys are to succeed here, evidence is there for these the last four years for sure. 

Putting 
Ultra quick Bermuda greens, that slope from back to front will be lightning quick if the weather stays dry. Lag putting downhill putts and attacking the uphill ones will be key and overall good putters of the golf ball have consistently done well here in the past (Na, Xander, DJ) 

Field / Odds 

All the top 30 in the FedEx cup standings are here this week at East Lake to attempt to become the Tour Champion and attempt to win the FedEx cup.  It will be a crazy week with plenty of ups and downs with the potential of the number one spot in the standings changing on more than one occasion. 

I will talk through the odds from the 72-hole stroke play winner market on bet365 but will also include the odds in brackets for the individuals to be FedEx Champion. 

World Number 1 and FedEx Cup leader Scottie Scheffler is market favourite at 11/2 and is 7/4 to be FedEx Champion with his two-stroke head start. He finished in a tie for 2nd place last week with Matthew Fitzpatrick, where he was a little unlucky in the end to run into a very in-form Viktor Hovland. He has been ultra consistent this year with numerous top 5 finishes and recent form figures of 2-31-23-3-4-3-3-3-2-5. He has not won since The PLAYERS Championship in March and he has had plenty of opportunities recently, he just needs that putter to stay hot as his Tee2Green game has been the best by far all season. 

World Number 2 and 3rd place in the FedEx rankings, Rory McIlroy is next in the market at 6/1.  A 4th place finish last week continues a run of nine straight top-10s on the PGA Tour for McIlroy which includes one win at The Genesis Scottish Open. Rory’s game has seemed to have aligned itself the last two months and looks to be better than ever just now, he loves it at East Lake, and I would not put anything past him here this week. 

Third favourite in the market at 8/1 is World Number 3 and 4th place in the FedEx Cup standings Jon Rahm. Jon hasn’t been at his best of late, I watched him last week and his driver seems to be significantly letting him down. His results haven’t been the best of late since the Open Championship where he finished in second place but you never know which Jon will turn up mentality wise as he gets fired up too easily for my liking on a course where accuracy is key. 

Only a couple of guys in the triple digits in the market this week as there are only 30 guys and they are all the top players on the Tour right now, so I will not be touching them this week. We are in for a stellar week, and I cannot wait for it to start! 

Tour Championship Selections 

Only two selections this week, one of them have been taken in the Outright FedEx Cup Champion market and the other in the 72-hole stroke play market at four places each way. Points advised will be in brackets next to them! Good Luck again everyone this week, let’s finish the season off well!  

Viktor Hovland (9/2 Outright, 5pts) 
Recent Form – 1-13-13-25-29 
Course Form – 14-4-15 

The winner from our preview last week keeps his place for this week! And I really think he can catch Scottie Scheffler at the top and become FedEx Champion. He played unreal last week and had a stunning back nine where every bit of his game was on point. I am hoping he can emulate what Lucas Glover has done in the previous week and keep the high form up going into this week. 8th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 6th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green and 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach are some strong numbers. Hovland is also ranked inside the top-5 for every Strokes Gained category last week and was 1st for Driving Accuracy. Very good numbers for this set up at East Lake! 

Xander Schauffele (12/1 72 hole Stroke Play market, 2.5pts e/w) 
Recent Form – 8-24-17-19-10 
Course Form – 6-3-1-2-7-1 

The man for East Lake is Xander Schauffele! He hasn’t been his best this season but has seemed to have found something the last two weeks, so I’m therefore going all in on him this week on this market.

Xander was 8th for Driving Accuracy last week tied in with 14th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green, 5th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 4th for Strokes Gained: Putting this season makes for great reading this week. Trust Xander to get his first win of the season at a place he loves!