The Open 2023 Tips: Five selections from Royal Liverpool

The Open Championship is always one of the highlights of the golfing calendar and our man Jamie Broadhurst has provided us with a preview of the event and his best bets which you can read about below. 

Last week was one where we had place returns courtesy of 22/1 tip Tyrrell Hatton who eventually limped home in a tie for 6th place. Tyrrell had the lead by one shot with eight holes of his round left but finished very poorly with a bogey on the Par 5 16th hole and then a double coming down his last hole of the week. A somewhat very disappointing end to what looked like an hour before the end of play to be a promising one.

Eventually, Rory McIlroy chased down the long-time clubhouse leader Robert MacIntyre to deny him victory on home soil by one stroke as Rory finished with two birdies in his final two holes. A very good warm-up for him as we had into the final major of the year. 

The Open Championship

All eyes now turn to what is for most, the biggest stroke play tournament of the year (aside from The Masters for some).

The best of the best will turn up this week to compete for the notorious Claret Jug which Cameron Smith will defend after his monumental victory last year at the home of golf, St. Andrews GC. The stage is set for the last major of the year, and I am very excited to get into it and hopefully pick the winner!

Finally, before getting into things. It may or may not be worth noting that the Royal Liverpool Golf Club’s most recent tournament it has hosted was the 2014 Open Championship when last week’s winner Rory McIlroy was the victor with a solid -17 final score to beat Rickie Fowler in second by 2 strokes.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club (Hoylake, Liverpool)

• Par 71, 7383 yards
• Robert Chambers/George Morris design – alterations since 2014 Open Championship
• 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 136-218 yards – 3 over 192 yards.
• 11 x Par 4s – ranging from 367-507 yards – 7 over 450 yards.
• 3 x Par 5s – 520, 609 and 620 yards
• Fairways/Rough – Fescue Grass
• Greens – Fescue/Bentgrass mix – very slow.
• Narrow Fairways – long Fescue Rough surrounds them 

Very weather dependent this week as ever with the Open Championship, the course is very open for the guys so if the wind does blow, it affects the golf ball a hell of a lot.

The winning score in 2014 here was 17 under par and we saw some low scores when the weather stayed quiet. The wind at present does not look to be much of a threat, looking to constantly blow around 10-15 mph on all four days, however the gusts may still play a part for sure. Going into the weekend, rain seems to be a constant threat of over a 50% chance throughout. It seems the players will certainly get a good taste of the classic Open Championship conditions!

Accuracy off the tee mostly will not be in the players’ minds, fairways are narrow as it is but, with well-placed deep bunkers and long, thick fescue rough surrounding them, it makes hitting the fairways this week an even bigger premium for the guys.

The greens this week will prove somewhat strange to some of the guys that haven’t visited the venue before. Okay they are very large in surface area so are easier to hit,(In 2014, the average was over 75% in GIR) but as the greens are so large and contain some impressive contours, the probability of guys facing monstrous putts this week is high and they will have to manage these well or mitigate them if they are to contend. Just like last week, proximity to the hole will have to be much better than average to optimize the birdie chances.

Miss the greens this week and the players face; sharp run off areas, tight lies on the bare/dry fairways and major undulations to navigate. Making the Royal Liverpool GC one of the hardest scrambling courses the players face on Tour.

Since the 2014 Open Championship, there have been some renovations to the course itself. The course has been made roughly 100 yards longer, the old Par 5 10th hole has been made into a long and tricky Par 4.

Stats to be considered this week

With the above being said, the below statistics are the main ones I will base my tips around;

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – accuracy over distance.
• Proximity to the hole from the fairway
• Scrambling
• 3 putt avoidance
• Par 4 scoring – over 450 yards, due to there being 7 of them here.

Last 6 winners of The Open 

• 2022 Cameron Smith
• 2021 Collin Morikawa
• 2020 Cancelled Due to COVID
• 2019 Shane Lowry
• 2018 Francesco Molinari
• 2017 Jordan Speith
• 2016 Henrik Stenson

The Field/Odds

150 players are in the field and all the top guys are here in the world of professional golf, including those from the LIV Tour. These 150 will be chopped to the top 70 and tied after the halfway cut.

Last week’s champion and the new World Number 2 Rory McIlroy heads the betting market at 7/1. McIlroy has gone 1-7-2-9-7-7 in his last 6 events so is clearly a worthy favourite, especially after his emphatic win last week on a course that is very similar to the one of this week in the Renaissance Club.

World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler is second favourite in the market at 8/1 and he is the last of the guys that are single figures in the odds this week. Scottie is having an unbelievably consistent year. He has not missed a cut in 16 attempts on the PGA Tour and his worst finish in America is a tie for 12th place, winning twice in the process in America and carding nine other top 5 finishes in the process. As I have said for the last two or three previews, if Scottie finds a good week with the putter, then he will win, his Tee2Green game the last few months has been the best in the world by far.

Between Scottie and the 20/1 mark, there are only three players; Jon Rahm 11/1, defending champion Cameron Smith 14/1 and the recent US PGA Champion Brooks Koepka 18/1. Cam Smith, the pick of this bunch for me as he is a recent winner on the LIV Tour and in English conditions too, he loves the Open Championship. He chips and putts on an unreal level, look out this week if he catches fire with that flat stick!

Players at bigger odds that caught the eye this week for me and may or may not feature in my final card; Collin Morikawa 30/1, Tom Kim 45/1, Adam Scott 75/1 and Ryan Fox at 90/1.

Selections 

Same as last week for the format of this week’s tips. Four each-way selections all at 1pt each way on the 8 places market on Bet365 and then one Top-20 finish bet at 2pts, bringing the stake total to 10 pts yet again. Good Luck all! Let’s get that Major winner!

Cam Smith 16/1
Recent Form (including LIV) – 1-12-4-9-9-2
Open Championship Form – 1-33-20-78-MC

No stats really back this main selection up as he spends most of his playing time on the LIV Tour where they do not record many performance stats. The defending Open champion does not need much introduction, however. He has a great record in British conditions and seems to be in a real rich vein of form at present when capping off with a win last time out at the LIV event at The Centurion Club in London on a blustery week.  

He may indeed have the added pressure this week coming here as defending champion. However, I am a true believer in backing guys that have performed well on similar golf courses in similar conditions as they will face this week. He drives it accurately, his short wedges are phenomenal and he is one of the best in the game on and around the greens and showed his powers in full last year on and around the last green complexes at St. Andrews on a similar grass type.

Collin Morikawa 30/1
Recent Form – 2-MC-14-29-26
Open Championship Form – 1-MC

A massive price for the 2021 Open Champion and a guy who finished second in a playoff last time out. 

Collin has had a relatively quiet year by his standards but loves the biggest of stages, hence me taking him here. His Strokes Gained data at the Travelers Championship were exceptional, finishing top-10 for Off the Tee, Tee2Green and Approach. A lot like the old Collin from the 2021/22 season.

If he gets that putter going that can go cold, he will have a chance for sure.

Dustin Johnson 35/1
Recent Form (including LIV) – 5-8-10-23-55
Open Championship Form – 6-8-51-MC-54

My second LIV tip of the week, apologies all. But Dustin Johnson lately has seemed to have found some form registering two top-10 finishes and has shown some promise for sure in the last two major championships. We all know what he is capable of and has won on the biggest of stages for sure. I am hoping he can draw on his previous major winning vibes from Augusta to take this week by the scruff of the neck!

Max Homa 55/1
Recent Form – 12-21-MC-9-8
Open Championship Form – 40-MC

A guy that has not produced his best for sure in Major Championships, however he did have some good signs last week when he finished in 12th place on a tough set up in tough conditions in Scotland.

His game suits links golf full stop. His low ball flight he can hit both off the tee and the ground will be much needed when the wind blows during the week.

His strength is his long irons which will be needed this week, take a chance on Max at a huge price in my opinion.

Top 20 finish - Nick Taylor 7/1
Recent Form – 19-MC-MC-1-MC-
Open Championship Form – DEBUT

A player i rarely back, but this price for a top-20 this week was too big to pass up! A guy who is having a relatively consistent year, gaining a win three starts back at his national open in Canada on the PGA Tour. He does not do a lot wrong at all this guy and with a promising top 20 performance last week in Scotland, I am confident he can repeat it here in Liverpool this week. He is also available in the each way market at a massive 400/1 if you would prefer the gamble on that! But i will stick to just the Top 20.