Scottish Open Tips & Predictions: Three against the field at The Renaissance Club
After securing a 40/1 winner at the Irish Open, golf tipster Russell Palmer is back with another three picks for this week's Scottish Open on the European Tour...
- Andy Sullivan - 1pt each-way @ odds of 35/1 with Paddy Power (8 places)
- Benjamin Hebert - 1pt each-way @ odds of 50/1 with William Hill (6 places)
- Gavin Green - 1pt each-way @ odds of 66/1 with William Hill (6 places)
It's been tough going on the European Tour since the restart picking up a handful of placed finishes but I was delighted to get into the winning circle as 40/1 tip John Catlin did the business on Sunday to win the Irish Open.
I felt as though given his form and ability to win he was overpriced in last week's field and as much as I liked runner-up Aaron Rai to do well last week as well, the American would have the edge if the opportunity of a W arose.
Lets hope for a bit of momentum going into this week's tournament, the Scottish Open which is being played for the second year running at the Renaissance Club in Dirleton, Berwick. The tournament is being played much later in the year this season due to it being postponed during lockdown. It means the track will be playing longer as a result with it being much cooler than in July plus the course has added an extra 200 yards.
There are four par 5's and five par 3's this week which is pretty unique so I've had a look at the par 5 and 3 scoring in the stats to help find my selections.
It's the best field assembled on the European Tour since lockdown thanks to the €7m prize money (compared to €1.25m last week), with Tommy Fleetwood heading the betting at 11/1, whilst Matt Fitzpatrick (12/1) makes his first start on the European Tour since lockdown having played well in America throughout the late part of the summer.
I'm interested in three players further down the betting though, so strap yourself in and lets get some winners.
With the likes of Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick in the field plus a rejuvenated Thomas Pieters (22/1) who played well in the US Open last time out, there's some value to be had further down the betting, none more so than with Andy Sullivan who is available to back at 33/1 this week with Paddy Power who are going eight places.
The Englishman has three top ten finishes in his seven starts, including a win at the English Championship eight weeks ago, his fourth victory on the European Tour.
A missed cut at the US Open a fortnight ago in his latest start is nothing to lose sleep about and he faired okay here last year finishing in the top 30.
What jumps out to me for Sullivan is his high scoring stats scores for Par 5's where he ranks 11th on the European Tour and Par 3's where he ranks 5th. It only makes sense that his shots gained approaching the green also stack up where he's ranking 3rd and he just jumps off the page to me as a serial winner on Tour.
He ranks 14th for greens in regulation and third for scoring average and I think he's a cracking price at 33's this week.
Next up I go a litter deeper into the betting and find Benjamin Hebert at 50/1 with William Hill who pay the six places this week.
The Frenchman has missed his last two cuts but prior to that he carded a third place at Celtic Manor where I think we'll see the same kind of attributes this week (wet, cold and long).
Hebert ranks 3rd for Par 5 scoring on the European Tour this season and also 8th for shots gained approaching the green.
He was second at this track last year and at 50/1 I like his chances each-way.
My third pick is a player I put up a lot at the beginning of the UK Swing, Gavin Green who is a 66/1 chance this week.
The Malaysian is a great ball striker and has an excellent all-round game.
Ranking 2nd on Tour for stroke average, he averages over four birdies a round (10th) and 11th for eagles per round. His par 3 scoring is solid as well averaging under par and ranking 13th on Tour and I think he's a big price here given he's recorded an 8th place and 11th place finish from his four starts so far since lockdown.
He missed the cut here last year and last time out, but that's factored into his price which is twice as big as when I was putting him up earlier in the summer.
Best of the rest
Of the market leaders, Thomas Pieters (22/1) and Martin Kaymer (25/1) make the most appeal but are both quite short in the betting. Pieters blows hot and cold but played well in the tough conditions of the US Open, whilst Kaymer is 3-2 from his last two starts in Europe.
Thomas Detry (35/1) also shapes well this week but comes here fresh off a US Open/Dominican Republic double header.
I wouldn't be surprised if either Laurie Canter (80/1) or Connor Syme (80/1) go well but I've literally put one or both of them up most weeks since the European Tour restarted and they might just have boiled over. Whilst at big prices I wouldn't put you off including Dean Burmester (100/1) and Guido Migliozi (100/1) in DFS lineups or small each-way action.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
- Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
