Masters Tips & Predictions: Three long shots for each-way bettors
Our golf tipster Russell Palmer is back with another three tips and predictions for this week's Masters tournament from Augusta, with some big priced selections...
- Scottie Scheffler - 1pt each-way @ odds of 66/1 with Bet Victor (6 places)
- Sebastian Munoz - 0.5pts each-way @ odds of 150/1 with Bet365 (8 places)
- Lanto Griffen - 0.25pts each-way @ odds of 175/1 with Bet365 (8 places)
We have an absolutely stacked field for this week's Masters, the biggest event of the golfing year and I've nailed my colours to the mast with three outright selections in my Masters tips and predictions article posted on Monday.
However, with plenty of you having their first golf bet of the year this week, I've picked out some at big prices who I think can go well this week based on their stats around what I consider the key metrics this week - driving distance, shots gained approaching the green, scrambling and par 5 scoring.
None of my three longshot picks have played in the Masters before, which I should warn is a big negative at the trends, but we have seen plenty of first timers contend and with some bookmakers paying up to a fifth the odds down to ten places, then there's some value to be had I'm sure, especially with a mind that there are no patrons on the course this week which I'd treat as a positive for newbies.
What defines a longshot and can they win a Masters? If you're not familiar with betting on golf, you might consider anything bigger than 25/1 to be a big price and depending on your staking plan a winner can yield some big returns. The point to note in the Masters is that it's a smaller field than usual, with just 91 (Sergio Garcia withdrew on Monday), that's roughly 50 players less than a 'normal' week on Tour.
The top of the betting is stacked with the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy but none of this quintet have won the Green Jacket before and you can see from the starting prices of the recent winners below you often have to dig deep to find the winner (source Green Square Golf).
| Thu |
each-way (6 places)
|
|
|
|
66/1 | |
- 4th in the USPGA, he won't be phased
- Two top 10's in his last eight tournaments
- Ranks 10th in the field for driving distance
First of my three longshot picks is Scottie Scheffler who is 66/1 with Bet Victor who are paying six places this week.
The 24-year-old is making his debut at Augusta but has enjoyed a brilliant year on the PGA Tour, recording 13 top 25's and seven top tens.
A fourth place finish in the USPGA Championship in August shows he can mix it in a major and his stats are impressive.
Ranking 10th in the field for driving distance bombing it an average of 309 yards, Scheffler's prowess off the tee can see him put himself into good positions for the all-important second shots. The American also ranks inside the top twenty in the field for shots gained approaching the green and he's tied 14th in the field for par 5 scoring.
With two top tens in his last eight starts, I think he's sneaking under the radar at the prices and there's also some value backing him at 7/1 to be the top debutant.
| Thu |
each-way (8 places)
|
|
|
|
150/1 | |
- Debut win on Tour this season
- Ranks 15th in the field for scrambling
- Ultra consistent with three top 10's in his last eight starts and no missed cuts
Second up is Sebastian Munoz who is a massive price of 150/1 with Bet365 who are paying down to eight places.
The Colombian has been on my radar over the last couple of months having tipped him up a couple of times.
Winner of the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier this year, Munoz has been ultra consistent, with three top tens in his last eight tournaments, six of which were top 30 finishes and made the cut in all eight.
Add to his recent form his key stats, Munoz is long enough off the tee averaging over 300 yards plus he ranks 15th in the field for scrambling and tied 22nd for par 5 scoring.
We don't know how he'll handle Augusta for the first time but I'm happy to take a chance on him at 150/1, plus I wouldn't put you off including him in DFS lineups as a cheap option under $7k or backing him at 9/2 to finish in the top 20.
| Thu |
each-way (8 places)
|
|
|
|
175/1 | |
- Ranks 11th in the field for scrambling
- Two top tens in his last eight starts
- 23rd in the field for driving distance
Last up is another big priced selection in Lanto Griffin at 175/1 with Bet365.
Griffin will be unfamiliar to a lot of readers but has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks. The American has two top tens in his last seven starts on the PGA Tour and four top twenty finishes.
He ranks 23rd in the field for driving distance so hopeful he'll get in some good positions for the all important second shot, whilst he's 11th in the field for scrambling. Tied 18th for par 5 scoring, Griffin feels like a bit of a flyer.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- Tyrrell Hatton - BMW PGA Championship - advised at 16/1
- John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
- Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Italian Open - advised at 45/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
- Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
