John Deere Classic Tips: Best plays for this week's event on the PGA Tour

For the second week running, a tense playoff decided the outcome of a PGA Tour event. As talented Aussie, Cameron Davis, picked up his first PGA Tour title over Troy Merritt, on the 5th playoff hole at the the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

A similar birdie heavy test awaits the players this week in the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. With a highly coveted spot in the Open Championship up for grabs for the highest finishing player in the top five, who is not already exempt for the final major of the year.

TPC Deere Run is a traditional, tree-lined 7268 yard par 71, designed by D.A. Weibring and is made up of 3 par 5s, 11 par 4s and 4 par 3s. Most holes are scorable, with a couple of lengthy par 4s ending both nines, as well as the par 4 15th usually asking the most questions. Expect plenty of drama down the 18th hole with water well in-play all along the left hand side of that final green. 

The fairways are generous but heavily bunkered with many gentle doglegs and the bentgrass greens are also heavily bunkered, with the elevation changes into many of the greens one of the main challenges the course has to offer. Though, in truth these difficulties are minor and we should expect the players to once again bombard the course with birdies. In the last 11 years the tournament has only twice been won with a winning score worse than -20, even then the winning scores were -18 & -19. 

The defence in the course may be further weakened, as we once again have a lot of rain in the forecast before and during the event. Which would only make the pins more accessible and birdies easier to come by, with little in the way of wind too.

As expected, we have a weak field, with many players over in Scotland for the Scottish Open and the others getting in some last minute prep for next week. Daniel Berger the standout player in the field, with former champions Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker also teeing it up.

Daniel Berger heads the market at 10/1 and I really couldn’t talk anybody out of backing him. He rates the most likely winner this week but he’s not for me at the price, which would be the case for most players in the world in an event like this. These events are too open to big priced winners, meaning it is not desirable to put all your eggs in one short priced basket. This was shown at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, as both of the last two players in the playoff started the week at 100/1+. With that in mind I have a rare team of six this week, with none below 40/1 and three at 80/1+, starting with Patton Kizzire.

Kizzire has been in a good vein of form since the end of last year, where he finished 2020 with finishes of 24-11-10-32 and has continued in a similar fashion this year. A 7th place finish in Hawaii at the start of the year and 9th in the Texas Open. Then recording back to back 3rd place finishes in the Byron Nelson & Charles Schwab Challenge in May. He followed that with a run of three MCs but came back into form last week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, finishing 25th and signing off with an 8-under 64 on Sunday, the joint best round of the day. 

Kizzire excels in this type of event, where making a hatful of birdies is the main requirement. Four wins as a professional with none of them coming with a score worse than -17. This is backed up by the stats, where he ranks 20th for birdie average, thanks to him being an excellent putter, ranking 11th and being a solid iron player, hitting plenty of greens, ranking 42nd for greens in regulation.

He has a solid record here, playing twice, with finishes of 25th and 30th. Shooting in the 60s in seven of his eight rounds at the course. He comes into this week’s event in much better form than he did when he recorded those finishes and I expect him to go even closer this week.

Beau Hossler feels like he’s been around forever but at only 26 years old, this former world class amateur still has plenty of time on his side and has been showing positive signs of late. Recording a top 25 finish on each of his last three starts.

He’s been driving the ball really well and hits it far. Iron play has been solid too, where he’s ranked 16th, 28th and 4th in his last three events for greens in regulation and at his best he’s an excellent putter. Though not quite putting at that level right now he’s been solid and ranks 87th on tour this year.

Having played the event once before, finishing 26th in 2019 and shooting three out of four rounds in the 60s, he’s shown he can go well at the venue. Also proving capable of competing in a low scoring event, most notably when finishing runner up to Ian Poulter in the 2018 Houston Open, losing a playoff after shooting -19.

An event which has thrown up many a first time winner, including the last two renewals, with Michael Kim in 2018 and Dylan Frittelli in 2019. This represents a great opportunity for Hossler to pick up his first title, in a field weaker than most he will play in on tour.

The two longshots this week are at 200/1+, starting with Argentinian, Fabian Gomez, who put up some really impressive numbers at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Gomez had been having a pretty unremarkable year until a 14th place finish last week. A performance like this after a run of poor results wouldn’t be enough to interest me alone but some of his stats in Detroit were superb and the hope is he can keep that rolling this week. He was the best iron player in the field, ranking 1st in approach and also 6th in greens in regulation, complimenting this by being 5th in putting. 

He’s played the event a few times before and has a pretty uninspiring record but did finish 23rd in 2018 and one of his PGA Tour victories came in a birdie-fest, as he won the 2016 Sony Open with a score of -20.

With one other PGA Tour title to his name, he’s a multiple winner at this level, something that can’t be said about most in this field. If he can keep up that quality play from last week he’s bound to go even closer here. 

My second huge price play of the week is Bill Haas, who’s form has a similar look to that of Gomez, in so much as he broke a really poor run of results last time out. Also putting up some stats which gave plenty of promise going forward. 

Haas’ form was every bit as uninspiring as Gomez before he popped up with a 25th place finish on his last start in the Palmetto Championship four weeks ago. Which was in fact his first top 25 since finishing 11th at the Barbasol Championship in 2019.

That performance at the Palmetto Championship particularly stood out as his iron play was superb, ranking 6th for approach and 1st in greens hit. Though his putting was poor, it has actually been the best part of his game during this poor run.

About as proven a winner as there is in this field, with six PGA Tour titles to his name. The last of those came back in 2015 at the Desert Classic, where he won with a score of -22, showing he is not afraid of going low. If he can keep up that impressive iron play from his latest start and putt more like he had been doing the rest of the season, he represents a real danger in a field so lacking in depth.

The last name off the list was Tyler Duncan, who has form here but hasn’t shown quite enough in recent weeks to tempt me. Instead I’ll finish the week with a couple who have a similar profile, in so much as they’re tour winners showing good form of late, starting with Pat Perez.

Perez just seems an all round good fit for this week’s test with a bunch of solid stats. 45th in putting which was enhanced by being 1st last week in the Rocket Mortgage. He’s solid with his irons and also makes plenty of birdies, ranking a respectable 60th on tour in birdie average. Though these numbers don’t look that impressive, you’ve got to take into consideration how many of the players above him in the rankings are missing here and upgrade those stats rankings in relation to this weak field.

Another sign of his suitability to the test comes in the form of his three previous PGA Tour victories. All have been won with a score of -21 or better, including his last win in 2017 in the CIMB Classic, where he won with a score of -24. He is a player who relishes the necessity to go low.

A really solid run of form, where he’s missed just one cut in seven, including finishes of 10th at the Palmetto Championship and 14th last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Perez is in really good nick and looks a great price at a test that is sure to suit.

Finally we come to Scott Stallings, who has a great record here, with finishes of 16th, 5th and 18th amongst his last four appearances. His current form is solid too, finishing 3rd at the Byron Nelson five starts ago and 25th last time out at the Rocket Mortgage, which could’ve been even better if it wasn’t for a poor 73 in round two. 

An excellent iron player, ranking 31st in approach and 36th in greens in regulation. He replicated this last week, 6th for approach and 16th for greens in regulation. He also had a solid week with the putter, ranking 29th.

A three time PGA Tour winner and another with a win in a similarly low scoring event, as he won the True South Classic (Now the Sanderson Farms) in 2012, with a score of -24. Though his last win came seven years ago, he is an ultra consistent player, shown by the fact his world ranking has barely shifted in that time and has recorded multiple top 10 finishes every year since 2010.

If he can continue that quality ball striking of last week and find a little extra with the putter, he rates another with the game to take advantage of this weak field and bag himself a 4th PGA Tour title.