Italy vs Wales Prediction, Odds and Lineups: 6/1 fancy in the Tryscorer market

A clash that is likely to have a significant impact on the destination of this year’s wooden spoon, Italy and Wales go head-to-head at the Stadio Olimpico in the Six Nations on Saturday (14:15, ITV1).

Read on for our prediction, the latest odds, and the starting lineups.

Winning two of their last three meetings with Wales, Italy know what it takes to overcome the men in red and they look capable of landing another defeat on the Welsh this weekend in Rome.

This young Welsh side looked like rabbits in the headlights at times against France on the opening night of the Six Nations, as Wales suffered a 43-0 defeat in Saint-Denis.

From the frying pan of the Stade de France and into the fire of the Stadio Olimpico, a packed house filled with passionate Azzurri fans will be expecting a result against a Welsh side who are on a 13-match losing streak at Test level.

Surprisingly, Italy’s two recent wins over Wales have both come at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff and the Azzurri are looking for their first win in Rome against the Welsh since 2007.

Head coach Gonzalo Quesada will want to see more of the ball in hand from his side than they showed in their 31-19 defeat to Scotland at Murrayfield.

The Italians gave the hosts a scare when getting the scoreline back to 19-19, but they will need to see more phases in the Welsh half this weekend if they are to win.

Italy are moving in the right direction and should overcome the -8.5 handicap on offer at 27/25 with BetMGM.

Expect Italy to play to their strengths on Saturday and use their powerful forwards to try to dominate a Welsh pack dotted with inexperienced players.

If the ball is close to the Welsh line, the Italian backs may as well stop for a quick espresso as they are unlikely to see the ball in a hurry.

Sebastian Negri is a powerful back-rower for the Italians and he scored a try the last time Wales travelled to the Stadio Olimpico.

With his physical presence close to the line, the 6ft 4in and 111 kg Negri looks good value to add to his try collection against Wales on Saturday.

Italy vs Wales Odds

Italy vs Wales Lineups

Italy

Italy have made two changes to the 23-man squad from the defeat to Scotland, with lock Niccolo Cannone replacing Dino Lamb the only alteration to the starting XV.

Jacopo Trulla replaces Simone Gesi in the one change on the bench as Italy once again go for a 6-2 split of forwards and backs on the bench.

Italy Lineup: Allan; Capuozzo, Brex, Menoncello, Ioane; P Garbisi, Page-Relo; Fischetti, Nicotera, Ferrari, N Cannone, Ruzza, Negri, Lamaro, L Cannonne.

Replacements: Lucchesi, Rizzioli, Riccioni, Lamb, Zuliani, Vintcent, A Garbisi, Trulla.

Wales

As for Wales, Warren Gatland has made two changes to his starting XV, with Taulupe Faletau coming in for Aaron Wainwright, who drops to the bench, and Eddie James replacing the injured Owen Watkin.

This will be James’ first start for Wales and a big challenge for him as he comes up against the formidable Italian centre partnership of Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex.

Wales Lineup: L Williams; Rogers, Tompkins, James, Adams; B Thomas, T Williams; G Thomas, Lloyd, H Thomas, Rowlands, Jenkins, Botham, Morgan, Faletau.

Replacements: Dee, Smith, Assiratti, F Thomas, Wainwright, R Williams, Edwards, Murray.