Hero World Challenge Tips: Three each-way selection in the Bahamas

After returning a 25/1 winner in his most recent betting preview, Jamie Broadhurst returns with three tips for the Hero World Challenge.

Fresh off a winner from my last preview two weeks back at the DP World Tour Championship with Nicolai Hojgaard at 25/1 we move back over to the PGA Tour and the Hero World Challenge. We are off to the Bahamas for a 20 man field, no cut event. List of the 20 can be found below in the order that they can currently be found in the betting market;

The highlight of the field has got to be the return of Tiger Woods after over a year off after yet another surgery, and the return of Will Zalatoris after a long layoff with an aggravated back injury. 

This tournament has been running since 2000 at three or four different courses, but since 2015 it has found a home here at the Albany Course, New Providence in the Bahamas.

Albany Course 

• Par 72
• 7414 yards
• Ernie Els design
• 5 x Par 3s – ranging from 179-217 yards
• 8 x Par 4s – ranging from 307-498 yards
• 5 x Par 5s – ranging from 552-632 yards
• Wide open fairways with wasteland area just off the rough should players miss the short stuff, tough and slick Bermuda grass greens.

A long, relatively straight track that rewards a strong T2G/Approach play and those who favour the unique Bermuda surface. Not many stats are recorded for the previous winners here unfortunately, what I can tell is Driving Accuracy is generally high as the fairways are wide, so a premium is shifted to second shots into the green and the work with the putter.

Recent Winners

• 2022 – Viktor Hovland -16
• 2021 – Viktor Hovland -18
• 2020 – Cancelled due to Covid
• 2019 – Henrik Stenson -18
• 2018 – Jon Rahm -20
• 2017 – Rickie Fowler -18
• 2016 – Hideki Matsuyama -18
• 2015 – Bubba Watson -25 

This is the section where I would normally go into the statistics of the previous winners and look at the averages. However, as the Hero World Challenge is not an official part of the PGA Tour schedule, performance statistics are unfortunately not recorded. 

Fairways are wider than average this week but the rough is not penal whatsoever, so long drivers are the play with not much attention being paid to accuracy. Looking at the set up and previous stats of winners, Albany Golf Club is very much a second shot golf course, with greens needed to be found in the correct areas to avoid the severe contours where possible. which would lead to a long and slick putt on these Bermuda surfaces. 

This further emphasises the second shot angle to Albany Golf Club, with 3 of the 5 Par-5s are above 600 yards and two of them being above 610. Therefore, they will mostly be ‘3 shot’ holes for the golfers, meaning their approach play on these Par-5s will need to be dialled-in if they want to compete this week.

Strokes Gained Off the Tee -
With wide open fairways this week, driving shouldn’t be an issue for any of the professionals, but I still want someone who will consistently drive it powerfully and put it in the right places on these fairways to give them the best chance of hitting these contoured greens.

Strokes Gained Approach/Greens in Regulation -
Contoured/sloped, fast greens are the theme of this week, therefore we need consistent and solid ball strikers that turn up week in week out the Tour to make sure they are found in regulation regularly and in good proximity to the hole. Just like in Dubai for the last preview of the DP World Tour Championship, wind looks to be a factor this year in the Bahamas again, just like it seems to be each year, due to the lack of protection on the course from Trees/Hills. This will only emphasise the need for strong iron play all week to cut though the strong winds.

Selections for the Hero World Challenge 2023

As there are only 20 golfers in the field this week, I will only be having three selections each way in the bet365 market that is offering 4-places, 10pts staked in total once again across the three. Let’s keep the profit going!

Justin Thomas 14/1
Recent Form – 4-5-12-MC-MC
Course Form – 5-5-5-12-11

A guy that really struggled last season with his game, clearly was affected by some slight swing changes he was making with his former coach, who he has since parted ways with and has gone back to his father as his swing coach. A 12th place finish in his last PGA Tour appearance of the 2022/2023 season followed by a 5th place finish in his first PGA Tour start this season, along with also finishing 4th in South Africa at the Nedbank Challenge two weeks ago. Things look to be on the up for Justin Thomas, with some good Strokes Gained: Tee2Green stats to back him up in those two starts in the last couple of months. In the eight years that Albany Golf Club has hosted the Hero World Challenge, Thomas has competed here five times and has had three top-5 finishes in that time. I really like his chances here to kickstart his confidence heading into this season.

Sam Burns 22/1
Recent Form – 4-15-52-14-MC
Course Form – 15-3

Bermuda Burns! When I saw the guy open at these odds in a no cut, small field event, I had to take him. The aforementioned nickname for Sam derives from his wins on the PGA Tour all coming at courses where Bermuda grass is laid on the greens. Okay, he hasn’t played competitively since the Tour Championship where he finished 4th in September, however with his attributes he will be surely suited by the layout for his first start this season. In his two starts here, he was buffeted by the wind from a bad tee time last year that got him off to a slow start so he can be excused as he shot three rounds in the 60s after that. The 3rd place two years back was way more like it when he dominated Tee2Green. Back Burns to go a couple better this week and get the win.

Cameron Young 22/1
Recent Form – 38-54-15-31-MC
Course Form – 3

My pick of the week is Cameron Young. He is potentially the longest hitter and the most powerful in the field this week. A 3rd place finish on his course debut last year in demanding conditions was nothing to criticise at all. Two decent starts this season on the PGA Tour on courses that perhaps do not suit his long hitting game. He will be coming here looking to pick up his form from late last season, at 22/1 I think this is real value.