Greece vs Spain Odds: Visitors to dominate in Athens

Luis Enrique’s men are all set for a trip to Athens to take on Greece in a pivotal World Cup qualifier. The qualifiers draw to a close this month and many of the groups are still hanging in the balance, Group B is no different.

Surprisingly, Spain currently don’t occupy top spot in the group. Sweden are two points above the 2010 World Cup winners and finishing top will beyond their reach should Enrique’s side drop points to third-placed Greece.

The reverse fixture finished 1-1, with Greece scoring the goal that earned them the point with their only shot of the game. Spain managed a staggering 79% of the ball in that fixture and I expect that to be the trend here, with Greece sitting deep and looking to hurt their opponents on the break.

Greece will be without Chatzidiakos and Bakasetas for the clash, while Enrique has a full strength to team to choose from.

Greece had mixed results in their two World Cup qualifiers last month, beating Georgia 2-0 before losing to Sweden by the same scoreline. They may have found the net in their last match with Spain, but there was an element of good fortune with their only shot of the game coming from the penalty spot.

Spain have conceded 2 goals in their last five matches when they have been similarly priced to win the match, an average of 0.4 goals against per game. Greece are averaging under a goal per game in their last five matches when they’ve been priced similarly.

A previously mentioned, this is a massively important game for Spain and only the three points will do to set up a showdown with Sweden for the top spot in Group B on the final matchday of qualifying.

The state of the group plays into the hands of this bet and Spain’s corner numbers against weaker opponents add to that promise. Spain’s opponents average 2 corners per game in their last five matches when the odds have been similar. Spain themselves average just under 8 corners in those games.

Spain are the far superior team in terms of quality and this bet requires them to show that quality from the get-go and comfortably sweep aside their opponents. The last time these sides met, Spain managed just 2 shots on target despite their dominance of the ball. They will be keen not to make the same costly mistake here.

Greece failed to win a single corner in that previous meeting and have only managed more corners than their opponents on one occasion in the last ten matches, in that time Greece average just under 4 corners while their opponents average just under 6. By contrast, Spain have only had less corners than their opponents in one of their last ten matches, averaging over 6 corners per game to their opponents 3.