Genesis Invitational Tips & Predictions: Cantlay can follow Berger in at Riviera
Our golf tipster Russell Palmer is back fresh from a winning 14/1 bet in the shape of Daniel Berger in the Pebble Beach Pro Am on Sunday, with three more golf betting tips on the PGA Tour this week...
I won't lie, it feels good to get the first winner on the board in 2021 on Sunday, as Daniel Berger sunk a 30 footer for eagle on the 18th hole to win the Pebble Beach Pro Am.
Berger has been in fine form since the lockdown on the PGA Tour was lifted last June and followers were rewarded their patience after he bounced back from a missed cut when put up in the Phoenix Open a fortnight ago.
It was a really good tournament in the end with plenty of players in the mix coming down the stretch.
I felt unusually confident in our man with a few holes to play as it looked like Nate Lashley would be the big danger, but a four putt on the 16th put paid to his chances.
If last week's contest lacked depth, the Genesis Invitational makes up for it this week with an absolutely stellar cast.
Dustin Johnson heads the betting at 4/1, looking for a third win in four starts, the world number one sat out last week's contest to give himself an extra week to recover from his exploits winning the Saudi International on the European Tour a fortnight ago.
It's no secret that I'm a massive DJ fan (who wouldn't be?), but at 4/1 he's too short in the betting for me here and I'm happy backing him a tenner each week on the Open Championship at Royal St George's later in the year at around 10/1.
There's plenty of course form to go on this week, on a tight course with small greens it stands to reason and DJ has nine top ten finishes (six top-5's and win in 2017) in his last 12 visits.
Usually well participated due to the 'Invitational' nature, there's been some big priced winners down the years and I've put three up who I think represent a bit of value at the prices. Johnson was 7/1 when winning here, but DJ aside we've seen SPs of 125/1, 28/1, 150/1, 25/1, 45/1, 150/1, 33/1 in the last eight years.
First up this week is a guy who went close at Pebble finishing third and has shown he can play at Riviera.
Patrick Cantlay is a best price 18/1 this week with William Hill paying eight places and I like his chances.
The 28-year-old ranks 8th on the PGA Tour for shots gained tee to green and 6th for shots gained around the green which will come in handy on this course with small greens.
He's not been out of the top 17 in his three trips to Riviera and the Californian was 4th here in 2018.
Already a winner on the PGA Tour this season in the Zozo Championship in Vegas before Christmas, Cantlay has finished 13th, 2nd and 3rd in his three appearances in 2021 and he got an up close look at how to do it playing with Daniel Berger on Sunday.
He didn't do a lot wrong at Pebble, in fact he equalled the course record on day one at Spyglass, which, incidentally was his second successive course record having also equalled the record in his fourth round in the American Express in his last start.
A final round 68 wasn't enough to get the win and he left a few too many putts out there. Perhaps he used them all up in his first round -10, but it looked like he struggled to get to grips with the pace of the greens at Pebble in particular.
Quicker greens and warmer conditions I fancy his chances. He's got a lot of quality ahead of him in the betting but last week's performance moved him into the top ten in the world and I fancy he'll snaffle a big prize like this soon enough.
Further down the betting I think I've found a bit of value in the shape of Joaquin Niemann at 50/1 with William Hill.
The Chilean comes here fresh having taken off the last four weeks, but prior to that he finished second in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and second in the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Still only 22, he's played Riviera twice, missing the cut last year and a 44 in 2019 in his first visit.
Strong off the tee and a good ball-striker Niemann ranks 6th on the PGA Tour this season for total shots gained and his approach play is particularly strong, ranking 12th for GIR and also 22nd for scrambling which will come in handy around this track.
At 50/1 I think that's tremendous value and he might be one to get on quick.
I've gone for a bit of a flyer as my third selection this week in the shape of Charley Hoffman at 150/1 with Paddy Power paying eight places.
I usually reserve my interest in Hoffman for the Masters first round leader market, but having struggled a little with injury of late he's obviously playing well, a 14th place and 7th place last week either side a couple of withdrawals and a missed cut.
He's got some course form in the bag with a 4th placed finish here four years ago, where he's been an ever present at Riviera in the last twelve years, missing the cut just three times.
I always think Charley as being a bit of a streaky player and I'm happy to ride on the back of his top ten last week at three figure prices, especially given his final round 66 which saw five birdies on the back-nine. He ranks 25th for GIR on the PGA Tour this season and is sneaky long for an 'old guy' (44), I look forward to following him from Thursday.
Best of the rest
I think Maverick McNealy and Max Homa will be pretty popular this week given their exploits at Pebble, whilst Bubba Watson will be looking to add to his three wins here since 2014. I backed the lefty here last year and he missed the cut, as Bubba continues to be a player I NEVER catch right, he maybe one to worth watching this week.
As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly. I'm going to keep showing my record post lockdown for a few weeks until we have some 2021 results to show.
Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.
Post-lockdown form:
Winners
- Daniel Berger - Pebble Beach Pro-am - advised at 14/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - BMW PGA Championship - advised at 16/1
- John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
- Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
- Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
- Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
- Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1
Placed
- Colin Morikawa - T7 Sony Open In Hawaii - advised at 14/1
- Xander Schauffele - T5 Sentry Tournament of Champions - advised at 10/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Italian Open - advised at 45/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
- Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
- Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
- Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
- Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
- Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
- Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
- Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
- Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
- Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
