France vs Italy Prediction and Betting Tips: Les Bleus could be made to work for win

But for a bit of good fortune France could have been looking at a record of two defeats from two in the Six Nations this year, but a contentious TMO decision left them the winners against Scotland in round two and Les Bleus will hope to kick on against Italy next up.

The hosts have good reason to feel confident given they ran out 60-7 winners against Italy at the Rugby World Cup last October. But that is a tournament where the Azzurri rarely shine and they will be looking to be far more competitive when the teams face off in Lille on Sunday.

France are without stand-in skipper Gregory Alldritt, who is injured. Paul Boudehent takes his place in the back row while giant Posolo Tuilagi makes his first start for Les Bleus at lock.

Italy coach Gonzalo Quesada has made six changes to his side after defeat to Ireland last time out. Martin Page-Relo of Lyon starts at scrum-half, the third player to wear the number nine shirt in as many matches.

France: T Ramos; D Penaud, G Fickou, J Danty, L Bielle-Biarrey; M Jalibert, M Lucu; C Baille, P Mauvaka, U Atonio; C Woki, P Tuilagi; P Boudehent, C Ollivon, F Cros.

Replacements: J Marchand, S Taofifenua, D Aldegheri, R Taofifenua, A Roumat, E Abadie, N Le Garrec, Y Moefana.

Italy: A Capuozzo; T Menoncello, J I Brex, F Mori, M Ioene; P Garbisi, M Page-Relo; D Fischetti, G Nicotera, G Zilocchi; N Cannone, F Ruzza; R Favretto, M Lamaro, R Vintcent.

Replacements: G Lucchesi, M Spagnolo, S Ferrari, M Canali, A Zambonin, M Zuliani, S Varney, L Marin.

Italy are used to being given big handicap starts in Six Nations matches and they have a strong record of keeping within that mark when they take on France.

Les Bleus have covered the handicap in just two of the 12 home matches they have played against Italy in the tournament, and when the line goes to 20 points or more, as it has on eight occasions, that winning record is down to one.

THe handicap is set at 26 points but France have not won a Six Nations home match by more than 27 since 2003 against Wales and their depleted team, already missing world-class half-backs Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack and now without captain Alldritt, may struggle to achieve the attacking fluency to build a big score.

Four of France’s last six home wins against Italy have come by a margin of 11 to 20 points and that looks like the margin to focus on again.

France winger Penaud bagged a brace of tries when the teams met in the World Cup and also crossed in Les Bleus’ opening match against Ireland.

He was kept quiet against Scotland but having been top tournament tryscorer in last year’s Six Nations and second in the charts at the World Cup, it’s unlikely that he will be held down for long.