Dutch Open Betting Tips: Six picks for Holland including a 150/1 shot

Last year’s Dutch Open at Bernardus Golf supplied us with one of the biggest shock victories on the DP World Tour last season. Six years after picking up his first DPWT victory in China, the once highly rated Swede, Kristoffer Broberg ran rings around the field the opening three rounds, opening up a huge lead heading into Sunday, with a final round 72 enough to see him run out a three shot winner and pick up that 2nd title. A memorable victory for a player who had been through a self-described “Six years of Hell” due to injury troubles in the years following his breakthrough win in 2015.

Previously the KLM Open and held at many different courses, the Dutch Open returns to Bernardus Golf for the second year in succession. Though it has changed its spot on the calendar from September to this week at the end of May.

The Course

Bernardus Golf was designed by American architect, Kyle Phillips, who has lent his hand to a variety of other DP World Tour event courses over the years. Such as Kingsbarns, one of the three courses used in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, PGA National Sweden, host of the Nordea Masters in 2014 & 2015 and 2017 Scottish Open host, Dundonald Links.

The course is pretty lengthy, measuring 7425 yards, though plays to a par 72. There are no overly long holes, with just the two par 4s measuring over 470 yards, all the par 5s are reachable for most and the par 3s are split between two lengthy 200+ yard holes and two around 160 yards.

Combined with wide open fairways, large greens and little in the way of penalty, providing you don’t find one of the many water hazards, this exposed, links-like course is one which is there for the taking.

This was proven to be the case with Broberg’s win last year, as he won with a score of -23, which included a round of -11 in round three. The top 5 made up of runner-up Matti Schmid, who shot -20, 3rd place finisher Alejandro Canizares, who shot -18, with -15 only good enough for a distant 4th place finish.

As impressive as Broberg’s win was, how he managed to do it didn’t really show us an awful lot about the course from a statistical point of view. AEs the main reason for his win was a lights out putting performance, one that saw him gain 3.5 strokes a round with the flat stick, almost 2 strokes more than the next best. Across his other stats he scrambled well and was solid enough in approach, but the putter did all of the hard work.

As with most low scoring contests, it’s not really a surprise to see the putter engineering the performances of those near the top of the leaderboard. Of the top 5 last year, we also had Alejandro Canizares in 3rd, ranking 5th with the putter, 4th place finisher, Thomas Detry ranking 4th and Matti Schmid in 2nd, ranking 14th. 

The other member of that top 5, Darius Van Driel didn’t get anything going on the greens but did lead the field in approach, the other key ingredient in making the birdies needed to contend on this type of setup. The other top 5 players also performing at least adequately with their irons, as Canizares ranked 3rd, Schmid 8th, Broberg 25th and Detry 38th. 

In addition to this the generous fairways should favour the bigger hitters. Matti Schmid and Thomas Detry show this, but we can also look a little further down at the likes of Richard Mansell and Johannes Veerman in 6th. Even Broberg is more power than accuracy off-the-tee.

Correlating Courses

After just one year hosting the event, it’s hard to be overly confident about any potential form-ties to Bernardus Golf. I would favour form at UK links courses because of the exposed, links style here. 

The Alfred Dunhill Links makes a lot of sense, not least because of the Kyle Phillips link at Kingsbarns. The three courses are always set up to be friendly due to the Pro-Am element and we’ve seen some low winning scores there. Broberg himself finished 9th last year after his victory here and shared that placing with Matt Schmid. The links golf correlation is enhanced further by Broberg, who has recorded a 2nd place finish in the Scottish Open.

Outside of that I like form in the Middle-East, often played on exposed layouts with leaderboards dominated by players who then perform well on links-style courses. The Qatar Masters and Abu Dhabi Championship appealing most from the small sample size. 

Finally there was an interesting link between the Porsche European Open and here, played at the Green Eagles North Course in Germany. This brute of a course has generous fairways, plenty of water in-play and is rather exposed in places. Most noteworthy is the fact that the last time we visited the event in 2021, we find Thomas Detry and Darius Van Driel finishing in the runner-up spots behind Marcus Armitage, before coming here to Bernardus Golf later in the year and tying for 4th. 

The Weather

Scoring conditions may be a little trickier this year, with some strong(ish) winds currently on the forecast throughout the four days, though does appear to die down a little on Sunday. There’s also some potential for some rain to fall throughout the week, not only before but during the event. With Thursday and Sunday looking the wettest days at this point. Though as always this is subject to change.

The Field

This is a decent enough DPWT field, though world #36, Thomas Pieters is by far the standout entry and the only one from inside the top 50. He’s joined by four more from inside the top 100, including Bernd Wiesberger, Ryan Fox, Oliver Bekker and Dean Burmester, all arriving here off the back of a trip to Southern Hills for the PGA Championship.

Selections

Bernd Wiesberger heads the market at 20/1, followed next by Thomas Pieters at 22s. Both possessing the game to be a real threat this week, though with the frailties in Bernd’s putting persisting he wouldn’t be for me. Whereas Pieters was much more to the front of my mind here but he’s still not hitting the ball as well as he was late last year and early this, so he’s passed over this week.

As usual with the DP World Tour, the field is wide open and there’s few hanging around at the top of the betting that I’d be surprised to see winning. However I start a little further down the betting with Romain Langasque, who bounced back to form last time out at the British Masters, putting behind him the two missed cuts in Spain and fits the profile for the test this week at Bernardus.

Langasque started to show form at the back end of last year, after a largely disappointing middle point of 2021. He’s carried that form over into this year, where though he’s had a couple of pairs of missed cuts, he’s finished top 25 on his other six starts, including three top 10s.

The latest of them came last time out at The Belfry in the British Masters, where he finished 8th despite opening with a 76. It was a superb ball-striking performance that engineered this result, with his approach play particularly firing, as he ranked 3rd in the field and if it wasn’t for a misfiring putter, a club which bar the occasional shocker has fired more often than not this year, he’d have surely gone close.

Quality approach play has very much been the key to Langasque this season and sees him rank 22nd on the DPWT. Though he is actually playing pretty well across the board, with his game looking ideal for this type of setup, not only producing that high level of approach play but as someone who is more powerful than he is accurate, he will surely benefit from the generosity off the tee here.

This was on show when he visited the course last year, as he finished 22nd, shooting three of his four rounds in the 60s before a disappointing 73 in the final round. Noteworthy is the fact he arrives at the course this year in much better form, as last year he’d recorded six MCs in the eight starts prior to finishing 22nd here, surely a big positive as to his suitability to the course.

We find more evidence of this in the shape of a 3rd place finish in a low scoring 2019 Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club. Also looking at some of that form from earlier this year, where he opened the season with a 12th place finish at Yas Links in the Abu Dhabi Championship and even the two top 10s in South Africa, played on open, generous driving courses working to some extent.

This former winner of the Amateur Championship looks more at home on these more exposed courses and if able to reproduce the type of approach performance that we saw at The Belfry, he can improve on his 22nd place finish here last year.

Two Frenchman for the price of, well two this week, as I’m taking Victor Perez to go well at Bernardus. He’s been producing some quality approach play this season, combined with the putter firing in recent starts and with the power first, accuracy second game he possesses, I think he’ll be suited by this test.

 After a solid but unspectacular start to the season, though in some strong fields, Perez has produced some better finishes on the leaderboard in recent starts. Following an 8th place finish in the ISPS Handa Championship at Infinitum in Spain, he then missed the cut in Catalunya but has since finished 21st at the British Masters and was 33rd last time out in Belgium at the Soudal Open.

Approach play has been the clear biggest asset to his game this season, ranking 16th on the DP World Tour and he has consistently produced positive strokes-gained performances in this area right through from the beginning of the year to now. The putter has started to fire more recently and though his short-game remains the big issue, I believe the reason he only has the one top 10 this year is because of inaccuracy off-the-tee. Ranking 160th in driving accuracy on tour this season.

With that, it’s no surprise his best performance this year came at Infinitum, an exposed course with generous fairways and also why he should appreciate the wide open expanses of Bernardus Golf this week.

As a past winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links, Perez enhances the opinion further about this type of setup suiting his game. As does a 2nd place finish in the Abu Dhabi Championship at Abu Dhabi Golf Club, another generous off-the-tee, exposed course. A 4th place finish in the Saudi International in 2021 providing further encouragement.

Like his countryman Langasque, Victor Perez is one of the classier players on tour and with the ideal game for the test that awaits, can join Romain in contending this week in the Netherlands.

Germany’s Yannick Paul has enjoyed a strong start to his DPWT career so far, after earning the step up thanks to an excellent year on the Challenge Tour last year. With a quality iron game he can go one better than his 2nd place finish last time out in Belgium and pick up that first professional title.

Paul has impressively missed just one cut in ten starts in his rookie season on the DPWT, with his three best finishes of the season coming in his last four starts. These came in the form of a 10th place finish in the ISPS Handa Championship, 16th place finish in the British Masters and then that 2nd last time out in the Soudal Open.

He was solid across the board two weeks ago in Belgium though it was the approach play that stood out, as he ranked 4th in the field. This indicative of his play this year, where he ranks 27th for approach. Paul has also scrambled well and is solid off-the-tee, again, more powerful than he is accurate. Another who should be suited by the lack of penalty aside these fairways. 

Paul wasn’t amongst the starters here last year and with a career still in its infancy, correlating form isn’t easy to find. However, I did like his 8th place finish in the B-NL Challenge Trophy on the Challenge Tour last season played in the Netherlands at The Dutch, another linksy, water-laden course. Amongst the runners-up there was Denmark’s Marcus Helligkilde, who went well here last year, finishing 12th and looked set to finish much higher before a final round 75.

The young German did little wrong in that T2 finish behind Sam Horsfield two weeks ago. With that first contending performance surely a confidence booster he can take advantage of his strong iron game to go one better this week.

Though I was obviously disappointed by Marcus Armitage’s final round at the British Masters three-weeks ago, which saw him go from right in contention to a 21st place finish, there was enough quality there, particularly in his ever impressive approach play that made me go in on him again this week, on a course that should suit.

One of the main reasons for that final round disappointment was that he just couldn’t find a fairway, which put too much strain on the rest of his game, something he shouldn’t be as troubled by this week. In addition to that he once again shone in approach, ranking 7th there and ranks 7th overall for the season but perhaps more optimism can be taken from a much improved putting performance at The Belfry, his best since Dubai at the start of the year.

Armitage didn’t play here last year, though does have some really interesting pieces of form. As suggested, the Porsche European Open could prove to be a good guide and Armitage picked up his first DPWT title there last year in a shortened 54-hole event. In addition to that he’s gone well at Ras Al Khaimah this year, finishing 9th, where wide fairways, plenty of water and little rough were the name of the game. Whilst an impressive 5th place finish in a tough, windy Qatar Masters would look very attractive should we get the toughest of the conditions this week.

Personal disappointment aside from the British Masters, it was another strong performance from Armitage this season, in a year where he’s recorded 6 top 25s and 2 top 10s. On a more forgiving driving course, with his continually thriving iron game and improved putting performance at The Belfry, he looks well placed for another strong showing.

There’s no doubt Matt Wallace has had a torrid time on the PGA Tour this season, with just the two made cuts to his name, one of them coming in the Zurich Classic team event where he was pulled through by Sam Horsfield. Though there’s been enough in recent performances, where he’s started to show some improved form in approach that tells me this return to Europe might bring about some better results for the Englishman.

That improved approach play has seen Wallace gain strokes in four of his last six starts. He’s also shown some decent enough form around-the-greens, with the putter and particularly the driver the main cause of his woes. Where he’s struggling to keep the ball in play. 

He has, however shown some more positive signs of late in that regard, gaining strokes in both his missed cuts in the Texas Open and Byron Nelson. Also producing positive accuracy numbers in both of those events as well as the Wells Fargo. Add this to the fact he will get away with a little more this week on this setup and he can take a further step forward with this club. 

Indeed, Wallace’s only made cut in a regular event on the PGA Tour this season came three starts ago in Mexico on a generous driving course. 

He didn’t play here last year though has plenty of form at comparable courses. A 2nd place finish in the Scottish Championship in 2020 at the open, generous Fairmont St Andrews shows how he can go on a course where you’re forgiven waywardness off-the-tee. As does a runner-up finish that same year in the Dubai Championship. In addition to this is a 7th place finish at Abu Dhabi last year.

The results haven’t been there but as Tom Lewis showed with his 10th place finish a few weeks ago in the ISPS Handa Championship, players seem to be able to leave behind difficult form stateside when they return to this side of the pond. With some genuinely good iron displays in recent starts and some encouragement with the driver, Wallace can follow in his footsteps here and at an almost unthinkable 80/1 in this field for a player of his talent, is more than worth the risk.

I considered the monstrously long Wilco Nienaber here and Daniel Gavins may well have been amongst my selections again if he hadn’t dropped off with the irons in recent starts. Instead I’m going to finish with Malaysia’s Gavin Green, who’s starting to show some better form and should appreciate the setup this week.

After a largely disappointing 2021, Green appears to have found something this year. Following a couple of solid performance on the Asian Tour to start the year, including a 38th place finish in a strong field in the Saudi International; Green missed cuts in his first two events on the DPWT but has since made his last five cuts on the bounce. 

The best of these was a superb 5th place finish in Qatar, where an excellent short-game display did all of the heavy lifting. Though he added to that with back-to-back top 25s in Spain and has been solid enough in his last two starts, finishing 48th in the British Masters and 44th in the Soudal Open.

Quality putting has been the key to the success of this big-hitter this year, where he ranks 5th for the season and though it appears as if he’s not pulling up any trees with the long-game the improvements are there. He’s driving it better and straighter than last year, whilst his approach play has improved markedly, also finding more greens.

Green missed the cut last year, with a disastrous approach display but his game was in a generally worse place, lacking any real consistency. We can take confidence from that 5th in Qatar, particularly if the wind blows but with just a small glance at his career best performances on the DPWT, we find 3rd place finishes in the Saudi International and Czech Masters, both on exposed, open courses, where bigger hitters have often thrived. An ability to handle the wind once again on show in Saudi.

Green possesses both the ability to handle the wind if it gets tricky but also, if it turns into a putting contest like last year, there’s few players showing the quality with the flat-stick that he is this year. If he can continue to make small improvements with the long game he looks a lively outsider this week.