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Corales Puntacana Championship Tips & Predictions: Three against the field in the Dominican

Corales Puntacana Championship Tips & Predictions
Corales Puntacana Championship Tips & Predictions

Our golf tipster Russell Palmer has dusted himself off from last week's US Open grind with another three tips on this week's PGA Tour event...

The PGA Tour resumes this week with three Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship tips from the Dominican Republic.

It's a very different look and feel to last week's challenge at Winged Foot where Bryson DeChambeau overpowered the US Open field to land his first major championship.

I hadn't backed Bryson due to his recent form but he played excellently to finish the only player under par and with ease in the end. I backed him in-running on the Friday when he was midway through his round and snaffled some value at 28/1. I don't often bet in-running on the golf as family requirements mean I don't get to watch much of the play until later in the evening. If I am betting in running I like to have the eye test as well as looking at the stats and the scores and it just felt like Bryson was in control of his game when +1 and knowing the overall scoring was going to come back to level par.

If you backed my pre-tournament trio last week, you'll have picked up a return each-way on Xander Schauffele who finished 5th ensuring full each way payout.

Dustin Johnson finished 6th whilst we can consider ourselves unlucky with Viktor Hovland who was hovering around the places all of Sunday before dropping five shots in his last three holes. That was the difference between finishing in a tie for 3rd or a tie for 17th!

We go again this week though on what looks like being a bit of a putting contest at Corales Puntacana Resort.

We have some course form to go on and I'm specifically looking at those players who have good putting, GIR and shots gained off the tee stats.

Golf odds
Tournament at a glance

The betting is headed by Will Zalatoris who has been carving it up on the Korn Ferry Tour this season, with a win and six top tens from his ten tournaments. Although it's a weakish field this week at odds of 14/1 favourite any value has been well and truly hoovered up.

Instead my first tip comes in the shape of Sam Burns who is a 22/1 chance with William Hill who are paying eight places.

The talented 24-year-old was 7th on his last start in the Safeway Open a fortnight ago in a similar strength field and his stats really stack up this week.

He ranks 4th in this field for shots gained off the tee and maybe more importantly has far superior putting stats than some of those around him in the market, ranking 9th in the field for shots gained putting. Good ball strikers like Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes and Emiliano Grillo are great at getting the ball on the green but their putting just isn't reliable enough on a course like this.

12th here a year ago, Burns has had a good look at the course and is my main play this week.

Masters Odds

Next up is a European making the trip from Winged Foot down to the Dominican.

Thomas Detry has been running hot on the European Tour with three top ten starts (including two seconds) from his six tournaments and is currently 11th in the Race to Dubai standings.

The Belgium didn't disgrace himself in the US Open where he finished in a tie for 49th. He's currently 82nd in the world rankings which puts him bang in the mix here and there's some value about at 40/1 with 888Sport paying six places, on a course which he played last season finishing 33rd.

Ranking 13th for greens in regulation on the European Tour a good week with the putter will see him in the mix here.

Finally I'm looking to Adam Schenk to make up my trio of tips this week.

The 28-year old ranks 9th for shots gained off the tee in the field and 21st for greens in regulation percentage. With a good week with the putter he can represent a nice bit of value at 45/1 with William Hill paying the eight places.

Making eight of his ten cuts since the PGA Tour returned, Schenk also has plenty of course form making the cut all four times he's played here with a high of 12th.

Best of the rest

As mentioned earlier, there are some players with really good ball striking numbers who just need a good week with the putter, but actually rank amongst the worst on tour with the flat stick. Jhonattan Vegas (66/1) could be chanced at a big price given he's the top ranked player in the field off the tee and also a top ten player in the GIR stats. Ranking 158th for putting is crux though as to whether you take a chance or not. I'll be including him in some DFS lineups and also looking at low cost players like Martin Laird (200/1) and Ryan Brehm (200/1).

As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.

Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.

Post-lockdown form:

Winners

  • Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
  • Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
  • Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
  • Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1

Placed

  • Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
  • Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
  • Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
  • Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
  • Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
  • Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
  • Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship Odds

  • PROB
    %
Hudson Swafford
WIN PROB: 64%
Mackenzie Hughes
WIN PROB: 33%
Tyler McCumber
WIN PROB: 8%
Nate Lashley
WIN PROB: 2%
Adam Long
WIN PROB: 1%
Anirban Lahiri
WIN PROB: 0%
James Hahn
WIN PROB: 0%
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-10-26 20:27 Odds subject to change.
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