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CJ Cup Tips & Predictions: Back Berger at Shadow Creek

Daniel Berger features in this week's CJ Cup Tips & Predictions
Daniel Berger features in this week's CJ Cup Tips & Predictions

Our golf tipster Russell Palmer returns with another three tips from the PGA Tour which this week takes place in Las Vegas with the CJ Cup...

The PGA Tour returns this week for an extra week in Las Vegas and we are treated to a top class field as the players get some game-time in before next month's Masters.

The betting is dominated by the world number one and two in Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm who are both available at 10/1.

With Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy also lining up, I'm delving a little deeper to try and snaffle some value.

This is the first PGA Tour event to be played at Shadow Creek, a massive 7,527 yard track which should benefit the long hitters, the event has been switched from it's usual location in South Korea due to the COVID situation and as a result we don't have any course form to go on.

Last week's winner on the PGA Tour was a 250/1 poke in Martin Laird and whilst this standard of field it's hard to imagine a similar priced springer and an all out putting competition, but I still think with a stacked field there's value to be had further down the betting.

Golf odds
CJ Cup at a glance

I had liked the look of Tony Finau this week but due to his COVID related withdrawal I've subbed him for Daniel Berger who is available to back at 33/1 with Bet 365.

The 27-year-old might not have Finau's length off the tee but he still sails it out over 300 yards and it's his short game especially that attracts me to him this week.

Ranking 1st for scrambling on the PGA Tour last season, Berger amassed 13 top 25's from his 17 tournaments played, missing just two cuts and picking up a win in the Charles Schwab Challenge, the first tournament back after lockdown.

Good with the putter, Berger ranked 7th in the field for shots gained putting last season and can feature here at decent odds given the lack of recent game-time for the leading players may spring up some surprises.

Masters Odds

Whilst the likes of last week's winner of the BMW PGA Championship Tyrrell Hatton (tipped up at 16/1 by this column), Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry are all high profile European Tour players who've made the trip to Vegas this week, it's another that catches my eye at a big price.

Whilst Shadow Creek will suit the long hitters, it's Ian Poulter's all round game at the moment which appeals to me, the Englishman finishing 5th and 6th on his last two starts, he's no stranger to jetting back and forth across the world to play and I think he can make an impression here.

Ranked the 16th best player at scrambling on the PGA Tour in this week's field last year, Poulter is also good with the flat stick where he tied 6th on the PGA Tour last season for shots gained putting.

Ever the competitor I like Poulter to scrap his way into contention at odds of 66/1. 

My last pick this week comes in the shape of Colombian Sebastian Munoz.

The 27-year-old has been ultra consistent on the PGA Tour finishing in the top 30 in five of his last six tournaments, including two top tens.

Long off the tee, ranking 23rd in driving distance in this field, he's also got good scrambling skills where he ranks 31st and whilst we need him to have a good week with the putter, that's factored into the price at 125/1.

As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly.

Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.

Post-lockdown form:

Winners

  • Tyrrell Hatton - BMW PGA Championship - advised at 16/1
  • John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
  • Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
  • Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
  • Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
  • Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1

Placed

  • Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
  • Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
  • Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
  • Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
  • Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
  • Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
  • Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
  • Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
CJ Cup Odds

  • PROB
    %
Dustin Johnson
WIN PROB: 8%
Jon Rahm
WIN PROB: 8%
Rory McIlroy
WIN PROB: 8%
Brooks Koepka
WIN PROB: 7%
Justin Thomas
WIN PROB: 7%
Xander Schauffele
WIN PROB: 6%
Collin Morikawa
WIN PROB: 4%
Hideki Matsuyama
WIN PROB: 4%
Patrick Cantlay
WIN PROB: 3%
Tommy Fleetwood
WIN PROB: 3%
Tony Finau
WIN PROB: 3%
Daniel Berger
WIN PROB: 3%
Viktor Hovland
WIN PROB: 2%
Jason Day
WIN PROB: 2%
Tyrrell Hatton
WIN PROB: 2%
Justin Rose
WIN PROB: 2%
Sungjae Im
WIN PROB: 2%
Rickie Fowler
WIN PROB: 2%
Matthew Wolff
WIN PROB: 2%
Matthew Fitzpatrick
WIN PROB: 2%
Jordan Spieth
WIN PROB: 2%
Paul Casey
WIN PROB: 2%
Harris English
WIN PROB: 2%
Louis Oosthuizen
WIN PROB: 2%
Sergio Garcia
WIN PROB: 2%
Shane Lowry
WIN PROB: 1%
Gary Woodland
WIN PROB: 1%
Brendon Todd
WIN PROB: 1%
Joaquin Niemann
WIN PROB: 1%
Abraham Ancer
WIN PROB: 1%
Cameron Champ
WIN PROB: 1%
Marc Leishman
WIN PROB: 1%
Bubba Watson
WIN PROB: 1%
Matt Kuchar
WIN PROB: 1%
Si Woo Kim
WIN PROB: 1%
Billy Horschel
WIN PROB: 1%
Kevin Kisner
WIN PROB: 1%
Alex Noren
WIN PROB: 1%
Jason Kokrak
WIN PROB: 1%
Byeong Hun An
WIN PROB: 1%
Ian Poulter
WIN PROB: 1%
Kevin Na
WIN PROB: 1%
Corey Conners
WIN PROB: 1%
Cameron Smith
WIN PROB: 1%
Kevin Streelman
WIN PROB: 0%
Keegan Bradley
WIN PROB: 0%
Ryan Palmer
WIN PROB: 0%
Brian Harman
WIN PROB: 0%
Joel Dahmen
WIN PROB: 0%
Each Way Terms
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We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-02 23:43 Odds subject to change.
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