CJ Cup Odds & Betting Preview: Four each-way tips from our man Jamie Worlsey
After over 18 months since landing his first title in the 2020 Honda Classic, Sung-jae Im doubled his tally yesterday in Vegas. Coming out a four shot winner in impressive fashion at TPC Summerlin. Another strong week for the PGA Tour preview, with Matthew Wolff (45/1) and Marc Leishman (66/1) both picking up full place returns.
Back to Vegas this week for the CJ Cup, the 2nd year the event has been staged there, due to the pandemic. The first three editions all taking place at Nine Bridges in South Korea.
Last year it was the ultra-exclusive Tom Fazio design, Shadow Creek, that played host, with Jason Kokrak picking up his first PGA Tour title. Tom Fazio is the course architect again this week, though we instead head to his Summit Club course, a 7431 yard par 72.
In contrast to last year’s venue, which was essentially a traditional, tree-lined course dunked in the middle of the desert, The Summit Club looks much more at home in Nevada.
Possessing little in the way of tree trouble and a typical desert background. This exposed setup is generous off-the-tee and has large, undulating bentgrass greens. Plenty of eye-catching bunkering about and run-off areas aplenty, which should repel errant approach shots.
It’s often tough to predict how a course new to TV screens will play. There’s some danger around the course but as Summit Club was brought in at such short notice, I don’t expect it to play too difficult. There looks like plenty of birdie chances, with all par 5s scorable and numerous short, sub 400-yard par 4s. I feel the openness off the tee will entice plenty to hit driver and I do see one of the better drivers potentially overpowering the course.
This is the strongest field we’re likely to see in any event Stateside for the rest of the year. Eight of the world’s top ten will tee it up and the majority of the top 50.
CJ Cup Tips:
Viktor Hovland 28/1 - 2 pts ew
Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas head the market at 12/1. Johnson appealed coming off the back of that Ryder Cup performance, but it’s been a few weeks since that event and six weeks total since he played a stroke play tournament, so I’m a little wary about getting involved at such short prices about players who may be lacking a little sharpness. Xander Schauffele next in the market follows a similar thought, as does Summit Club member, Collin Morikawa. I’m also going to bypass Rory Mcilroy and Jordan Spieth, with the next man in the betting my first selection, Norway’s Viktor Hovland.
After the disappointment of the Ryder Cup, Hovland returned to action at last week’s Shriners Open. In a 44th place finish he hit the ball excellently every day, ranking top 25 for both driving and iron play for all four days, besides Friday, where he was just outside the top 25 off-the-tee. He also putt solidly and would’ve been much closer to the eventual winner if he didn’t have such a poor week around the greens.
That quality ball-striking is what we’ve come to expect from the likeable Norwegian. He was 5th off-the-tee and 15th in approach on the PGA Tour last season. This enables him to take it to the par 5s, where he ranked 13th for par 5 scoring.
He has a strong book of form at other Tom Fazio designs: 12th in last year’s CJ Cup at the aforementioned Shadows Creek, he also finished 14th in this year’s Olympics, a course renovated by Fazio and 17th at Caves Valley in the BMW Championship. Also finishing 3rd at the Wells Fargo this year, another course in which Fazio has had a hand in alterations.
With two PGA Tour wins to his name, it’s been a strong start to Hovland’s pro career (Not everyone can be Collin Morikawa), though both wins have come in weaker fields. He has performed well in plenty of stronger fields and it’s only a matter of time before he wins in more esteemed company. Hopefully last week has sharpened up his game and he can use that ball-striking prowess to get the third and biggest win of his PGA Tour career so far.
Joaquin Niemann 55/1 - 1 pt ew
Making a return from a five-week break, following the culmination of the Tour Championship, there was plenty to like about Joaquin Niemann’s 40th place finish in Vegas last week. With a strong tee-to-green game, majorly aided by him being a quality, long driver, and being a good putter, he looks well suited to this week’s test.
Niemann has had a quality year on tour. Just the solo missed cut in 23 events, he’s finished 2nd on three occasions and notched up a further 6 top 25s. The only thing that has been missing from his results is that victory.
After a poor opening last week, where the stats suggest his game was a bit rusty after the break, Niemann responded well over the next three rounds. He shot a 64 on Friday to make the cut, then after a level round on Saturday, shot 67 on Sunday. The only time it all clicked was on Friday, where he was the best player in the field tee-to-green but did everything well throughout the week, with the putter the standout, ranking 18th.
That being his first start in five weeks means we have little to go on in terms of the new season’s stats but if we look at last season, we see just how well suited he should be to this test. 14th off-the-tee and 13th in driving distance, he’s got a strong iron game, ranking 49th and the same goes for the putter, ranking 47th. Also boasting a high ranking in par 5 scoring, in 13th.
He has plenty of form at other Fazio designs, similar to Hovland: 6th in this event last year at Shadow Creek, 10th at the Olympics and a solid 28th in the BMW Championship.
Just the one PGA Tour title to his name, back in the Greenbrier in 2019, he’ll win plenty more and doesn’t shy away when in the mix on a Sunday. He should enjoy the test and with a little rust shaken off, I think he’s a danger this week.
Maverick McNealy 80/1 - 1 pt ew
As a member of the Summit Club, few golfers in this field will be as familiar with this week’s venue than former #1 amateur Maverick McNealy. After a 2nd place finish in the Fortinet Championship two starts ago, where he did little wrong in defeat, he narrowly missed the cut last week at TPC Summerlin but can use his strong driving to go well here.
McNealy has twice finished runner-up this year but has performed admirably on both occasions. A final round 66 in the Pebble Beach Pro-am back in February to finish 2 shots behind Daniel Berger and produced a 68 in the final round of the Fortinet Championship two starts ago to finish 2nd by a shot to an inspired Max Homa.
He’s not just familiar with this course but plays it excellently. Shooting a best of 61 around here and back in 2017 shot a 68 in 40mph winds. Not the only Fazio design in which he is familiar with, as he finished 3rd in the United Leasing Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour at Victoria National Golf Club, another Fazio design that is quite open off the tee with large green complexes.
He’s a player with plenty of pedigree and has shown a fantastic mentality when in contention. He can use his strong driving at this familiar venue and make another push at picking up that elusive first title.
Charley Hoffman 100/1 - 1 pt ew
It’s been a fantastic year of consistency for Vegas resident, Charley Hoffman. 23 events played, with just two missed cuts and four top 10s, including a 2nd and 3rd place finish. Not surprising when you see his stats from last season, showing he played well in almost every aspect of his game.
In 2020/21 he ranked 16th on tour in approach, 25th off-the-tee, 43rd in putting and 47th in scrambling. As a long driver, ranking 28th in driving distance, he fits the bill as the type I’m looking at going well at Summit Club.
His start to this season has been solid if unspectacular, making every cut, a 22nd place finish at the Fortinet Championship his best performance of the last three. He started excellently last week, to sit 2nd after round one but faded as the week went on. Though I’m not overly concerned, as he showed quality in every aspect of his game throughout the week and it’s not an event in which he has a great recent record.
It’s been five years since he last tasted victory but the quality of golf he’s produced this year has far exceeded much of what he’s done in recent years. I think Hoffman can take advantage of his strong ties to the area and his quality long game should set him up for a good week.
