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Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips & Predictions: Europeans to put up strong showing in Florida

Molinari & Fleetwood feature in our Arnold Palmer Invitational tips & predictions.
Molinari & Fleetwood feature in our Arnold Palmer Invitational tips & predictions.

Russell Palmer is back with another three golf betting tips for this week's event on the PGA Tour, the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill in Florida...

Following on from last week's WGC-Worlkday Championship won by Collin Morikawa and just over a week until the The Players Championship, plenty of Europe's best players are on display this week in Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Won by Tyrrell Hatton twelve months ago, he and this week's favourite Rory McIlroy are two of five Europeans in the top ten in the betting at Bay Hill.

9/1 favourite McIlroy heads the field with Norway's Viktor Hovland as short as 11/1 second favourite in the betting following his second place last week.

Hatton (18/1) is joined by Matt Fitzpatrick and Paul Casey in the top ten of the betting at 25/1 and 28/1 respectively.

Having had a long look at Casey who is in fine form having won recently in Abu Dhabi and has two career wins in Florida, I've plumbed for three players (two Europeans) at bigger prices.

Golf betting odds
Arnold Palmer at a glance
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Thu
Francesco Molinari each-way (8 places)
30/1
Odds correct as of 2021-03-01 20:45 Odds subject to change.

First up this week I like the look of Francesco Molinari at the prices.

The Italian is a 30/1 chance with Paddy Power paying eight places this week and comes here fresh having missed the WGC last week after slipping out of the world top 50.

Having taken an extended break during 2020 Molinari seems to have shaken off his rustiness with three top tens in his last four starts and arrives back at a track where he won in 2019 and has another three top tens in his last six visits.

His stats stack up as well this week, ranking second in the field for scrambling and T3 for par three scoring (the par 3's are long at Bay Hill).

US Masters betting
Thu
Tommy Fleetwood each-way (8 places)
40/1
Odds correct as of 2021-03-01 20:45 Odds subject to change.

Second up this week is Molinari's mate Tommy Fleetwood at 40/1 with Paddy Power.

The Englishman is going through a bit of a drought in terms of winning and he has been trending in the wrong direction with his last three starts finishing 17-26-44.

I feel though his current form has been factored into his price though and he's a value play at 40/1.

He missed the cut last year but he has two top tens in his other three visits to Bay Hill and it was only six weeks ago where he opened up 2021 with a 7th place finish in the Abu Dhabi Championship.

Thu
Luke List each-way (8 places)
110/1
Odds correct as of 2021-03-01 20:45 Odds subject to change.

Finally I've gone for a big priced selection in the shape of Luke List at odds of 110 with Bet365 paying eight places.

The American is a good ball striker whose putter can let him down (a bit like Tommy). I like him here on a course where he's had back to back top ten finishes (plus a T17) and he's in decent enough current form too with three top 30 finishes in his last four starts, including T10 at the Farmers.

The 36-year-old has some decent form in the book in Florida, having a 2nd place at the Honda in 2018 alongside these two top tens at Bay Hill. He ranks 6th in shots gained off the tee in what is a particularly strong school. A good week with the putter and we might have an each-way shout at triple figure figures.

As ever, good luck with your bets if you're following and please gamble responsibly. I'm going to keep showing my record post lockdown for a few weeks until we have some 2021 results to show.

Follow me at Twitter @rustyboy75.

Post-lockdown form:

Winners

  • Daniel Berger - Pebble Beach Pro-am - advised at 14/1
  • Tyrrell Hatton - BMW PGA Championship - advised at 16/1
  • John Catlin - Irish Open - advised at 40/1
  • Jon Rahm - BMW Championship - advised at 14/1
  • Dustin Johnson - Northern Trust - advised at 20/1
  • Justin Thomas - WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 12/1
  • Webb Simpson - RBC Heritage - advised at 30/1

Placed

  • Colin Morikawa - T7 Sony Open In Hawaii - advised at 14/1
  • Xander Schauffele - T5 Sentry Tournament of Champions - advised at 10/1
  • Laurie Canter - 2nd Italian Open - advised at 45/1
  • Kristoffer Ventura - T6 Sanderson Farms Championship - advised at 80/1
  • Xander Schauffele - 5th US Open - advised at 16/1
  • Kristoffer Ventura - T7 Safeway Open - advised at 80/1
  • Laurie Canter - 2nd Portugal Masters - advised at 66/1
  • Si Woo Kim - T3 Wyndham Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Jason Day - T4 USPGA Championship - advised at 40/1
  • Phil Mickelson - 2nd WGC FedEx St Jude - advised at 110/1
  • Viktor Hovland - 3rd Workday Charity Open - advised at 25/1
  • Kevin Streelman - T7 Workday Charity Open - advised at 60/1
  • Tyrrell Hatton - T4 Rocket Mortgage Classic - advised at 16/1
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