American Express Tips: Back Patton Kizzire at a three-figure price

Our man Jamie Broadhurst provided profit with three-each way places at 35/1 (x2) and 50/1 last week and he returns with four tips for The American Express in Hawaii. 

Where to begin on last week. Three places for the preview, courtesy of 35/1 selections JT Poston, Ben An and 50/1 shout Keegan Bradley. Massive profit on the week and continues the successful start to the year!

The only downside to the week was both Ben An and Keegan Bradley found themselves in a playoff as they tied for the lead after 72 holes. Unfortunately for us however, they both came up short against eventual winner Grayson Murray.

The American Express

From Hawaii, players will travel East to the city known as ‘The Gem of the Desert’ in La Quinta, California where The American Express will be held at the PGA West Private Clubhouse & Golf Courses.

Players will be playing over three golf courses this week; The Stadium Course (TPC Stadium), La Quinta CC and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. The players along with their amateurs (mostly celebrity) as this is a Pro-am event will play on the three different courses Thursday-Saturday, there will then be a 54 hole cut and then the final 18 will be played on the Stadium Course.

The event returned to the three course format in 2022 after being trimmed down to being over just the two courses due to COVID restrictions in 2021.

Let’s go into the three courses then, luckily for me they are very similar in the way that they play/look but lets run through them anyway! 

Stadium Course

• - Par 72
• - 7140 yards
• - Pete Dye design
• - 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 165-223 yards
• - 10 x Par 4s - ranging from 346-471 yards
• - 4 x Par 5s - ranging from 535-591 yards
• - Bermuda greens with overseed of Poa Trivialis
• - Desert style course
• - Fairly small greens
• - Rough is non-existent

La Quinta CC

• - Par 72
• - 7060 yards
• - Lawrence Hughes design
• - 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 168-206 yards
• - 10 x Par 4s - ranging from 382-469 yards
• - 4 x Par 5s - ranging from 516-547 yards
• - Bermuda greens
• - Desert style course
• - Fairly small greens
• - Rough is non-existent

Nicklaus Tournament Course

• - Par 72
• - 7181 yards
• - Jack Nicklaus design
• - 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 165-209 yards
• - 10 x Par 4s - ranging from 364-462 yards
• - 4 x Par 5s - ranging from 527-572 yards
• - Bermuda greens 
• - Desert style course
• - Larger than average greens
• - Rough is non-existent

As I said, the three courses generally look very similar on the eye. All of them present under 7200 yards in distance, all are Par-72s and all offer the same amount of Par 3, 4s and 5s. Minimal rough on all courses will leave players with birdies opportunities galore. The only feature of the Stadium Course that players need to watch out for is the water hazards that offer themselves Off the Tee, navigating around these and putting the ball in the optimum spot will be one of the trickiest parts of this week, oh and dealing with the stadium like atmosphere especially on the last day!

Just seven of the 30 Par-4s the players will face this week are above 450 yards in length, and 12 of the 30 are under 400 yards. Most of the Par-4s on offer this week should be bread and butter for the professionals to say the least, with driveable holes aplenty with minimal risk on offer.

Previous 7 winners 

• 2023 – Jon Rahm -27
• 2022 - Hudson Swafford -23
• 2021 – Si Woo Kim -23
• 2020 – Andrew Landry -26
• 2019 – Adam Long -26
• 2018 – Jon Rahm -22
• 2017 – Hudson Swafford -20

A mixed bag of winners in terms of what meets the eye but with winners odds of; 60/1, 150/1, 5001/, 10/1, 80/1, 150/1 and 8/1 last year it’s pretty much choose who you like the look of this week regardless of their prices.

Onto the winner’s stat averages now, and it is not the most reliable of stats to go off this week with the only Strokes Gained Data coming from players’ rounds on the Stadium Course! So, an amount of assumption will be used this week in terms of the other two rounds played.

Average stats for the past 7 winners – Average Score -23

• 18th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• 13th Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
• 14th Greens in Regulation
• 11th Strokes Gained: Approach
• 53rd Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• 14th Strokes Gained: Putting

Summary

As I said at the top of this section, these stats are only derived from players playing the Stadium Course, so it is only a glimpse of what went on to those weeks. However, we can see from the above stats that players are tested here with their T2G games and are rewarded by having tonnes of birdie opportunities if they are on song with their Driver/Wedges.

Strokes Gained: Putting in the last four years has also been crucial so a decent week with the flat stick will also be needed to convert the chances created. The majority of the tournaments played so far this season have mostly been on Bermuda Greens, so casting your eye over the Putting Average stats this year will give you a good picture on player’s performances on these surfaces, but don't be too fooled, as these will play a little different with the Poa overseed that has been grown on them this time of the year.

Stats to consider

• • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• • Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity to hole from the fairway
• • Putting
• • Par 4 scoring
• • A little course form/previous form on desert golf courses.

I shall look for strong Strokes Gained: Off the Tee game for my selections, in order to position themselves correctly off the tee to optimise their approach play, and to avoid any water hazards presented in their two rounds on the Stadium Course. Fairways are wide and rough is short here at all 3 courses, so accuracy will not be on my list this week, bringing to the front the streaky, long hitting players in mind.

Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity to the hole from the fairway and Putting reasons I have covered above to optimise the birdie-fest this most likely will turn out as. Par 4 scoring is something I have included in my list and will be taking seriously this week. Par 4s nearly take 55% of the holes these players will face across the three courses this week.

Selections

Four each way selections again this week, in the 8-place market on Bet365. Let’s follow up the success of last week!

Jason Day 25/1
This season’s Form – 10
Course Form – 18-49
A little like Cam Davis below but with more emphasis on this Australian legend. Day is having a little resurgence in the game of golf, and I am here for it. With a new look to a new clothing sponsor, Day looks better than ever, and his swing looks exquisite to match. A 10th place finish at the Sentry to start his year off was full of exciting moments both with the Driver and the putter. Only two visits to these parts before but he improved on his 49th placed finish in 2022 to finish in 18th here last year. He really should suit this course, get on Day now!

Cameron Davis 35/1
Recent Form – 30-MC
Course Form – MC-3-29-28

When the Tour comes to a desert layout golf course, which is littered with natural sandy hazards. I always like to look at the Australian contingent that week. They spend a lot of time in their home country playing on courses with the rough being replaced by these natural wasteland areas, so they feel very much at home when they visit courses like these ones this week. You can see this by Davis’s three top-30 finishes in four attempts here at the American Express. He enjoyed a good end to the season last year and showed us encouraging signs at the start of the week last week in Hawaii.

Andrew Putnam 40/1
This season’s Form – 10-43
Course Form – 36-14-21-10-34-17-MC
Each week, I always tend to back at least one ‘experienced’ golfer who has been here and done it various times. He has not won here, but Andrew Putnam has been mightily consistent here over his seven starts, only missing the cut once and coming in the top-20 four times. A 10th place finish last week saw him on the cusp of contention all weekend, even though he was very solid and went bogey-free on Sunday, he was always a couple of shots too far back. He is a steady golfer who really rolls the putter. I think 40/1 is a big number for Putnam in the current market.

Patton Kizzire 100/1
This season’s Form – 12
Course Form – 11-22-53-MC-42-50-42

We have a guy here in Kizzire that I do not think I have ever backed, but when scrolling through the course form for the outsiders in the betting market this week, there weren’t much better than Kizzire, and at triple digits too!

A 12th placed finish last week in Hawaii at a place he has won previously was a very steady start to his 2024 campaign and returning to a place where the last two years he has steadily improved from a 22nd placed finish to an 11th last year, I do not see why we shouldn’t chance Paton this week.