The American Express Betting Tips: Best bets as the PGA Tour moves to mainland USA

After a two-week stint in Hawaii we’re back on mainland USA and start with the traditional West Coast swing, where we visit some of the most famous venues on the calendar. But before we take in the delights of Riviera and Pebble Beach, we kick-off this quintet of events in La Quinta, California with The American Express.

Tournament History

Known as the Bob Hope Classic for much of its 60+ year history, this event – which has a pro-am element – sees the field split their time between three courses in the La Quinta area. All players will rotate across PGA West’s Dye Stadium Course, PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club over the first three rounds, with the cut-makers returning to the more renowned Dye Stadium Course for the final round.

This multi-course element has been in play throughout the event’s existence, however both of the PGA West courses now on rotation were only introduced in 2016, making form in the AmEx prior to that of little relevance.

Scoring is typically low here, with that previously mentioned pro-am element meaning they will never set the course up to play too difficult. Joe Durrant holds the tournament record, shooting -36 in 2001, however that was played over five rounds; though since the event turned into a more traditional 72-holes in 2012 scoring has continued to be low, with each renewal requiring -20 or better to win; Patrick Reed’s -28 in 2014 the best winning score in that time; Andrew Landry in 2020 and Adam Long in 2019 shooting -26 to win – the best score since this current three-course setup came into play.

The legendary Arnold Palmer is by far the most successful player in the tournament’s history with five victories, with a host of players on two; including Corey Pavin, Phil Mickelson and last year’s winner, Hudson Swafford, who took home the title with a score of -23 – two ahead of Tom Hoge – and five years after his first victory on these three same courses.

The Course(s)

All courses are par 72s and play to the following measurements:

PGA West (Dye Stadium Course): 7187 yards

PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): 7147 yards

La Quinta Country Club: 7060 yards

They have birdie chances at every corner and are easy to score on, though the Stadium Course has a little more danger with water in-play on 1/3 of the holes. Ultimately, the amateurs dictate the necessity for an easy course setup, with rough low/non-existent and greens slower than usual. 

With this the tournament ranks easy in every stat on the PGA Tour over recent years; the absolute easiest event in which to hole putts on the bermudagrass greens, as well as being one of the easiest in scrambling % and GIR when missing the fairways. 

Conditions are the only things that would cause you serious worry around here and with little in the way of wind or adverse weather currently forecasted, you’d have to be making some poor unforced errors to be giving away too many shots around any of these courses.

Get your ball in-play off the tee and find a way to make birdies; whether that be through quality iron play, a hot week on the greens or preferably both - you must simply score well.

The Stats

Unfortunately, any strokes-gained data we have for this event is solely taken from the two rounds played at the Stadium Course. With numbers missing from half of the tournament it’s hard to know how much value to put into these stats.

Leaderboards here are usually well packed; no event has been won by more than two strokes since 2009 and with that it may pay to look at what usually drives those final round performances at the Stadium Course that ultimately decides the champion.

When firing a sensational 64 in the final round to win last year, Hudson Swafford produced a solid tee-to-green performance but the key ingredient to his success was the putter, where he ranked 2nd in the field for round four, gaining almost four strokes. His score was the joint-best of the final round; Brian Harman also shot -8 and like Swafford, produced quality on the greens, ranking 5th but backed it up with a quality approach performance, ranking 2nd. Notably, runner-up, Tom Hoge didn’t hit the ball particularly well but only lost strokes on the greens; where the putter carried Swafford to victory, it was the biggest hindrance to Hoge’s hopes.

Jump back to 2021, where three rounds were played at the Stadium Course. The top three finishers there: Si Woo Kim, Patrick Cantlay and Cam Davis, ranked 8th, 3rd and 4th on the greens respectively, combining it with quality iron play, Kim ranking 2nd and Davis 5th. The majority of players near the top of the leaderboard excelling in putting and or approach during the final round.

This is a story repeated throughout the years at this event, from Adam Long in 2018 to Hudson Swafford in 2017, winners and tend to get hot with the putter and/or irons, particularly during the final round.

Further to this, proximity from 150-175 yards once again looks key over those two rounds at the Stadium Course, whilst birdie average is an obvious way to go in a low scoring contest.

Finally, whilst the driver hasn’t been a huge contributing factor to success here, I feel with the lack of penalty for missing fairways and colder conditions this week, big hitters may well have an advantage.

Key Stats: SG: Putting, SG: Approach, Birdie Average

Secondary Stats: Proximity 150-175 yards, Driving Distance

Correlating Courses

As far as correlating courses go, there’s a few routes to take. We can look at the Pete Dye angle, with courses like Harbour Town Golf Links, host of the RBC Heritage and TPC Sawgrass, where the tour’s flagship event, THE PLAYERS Championship takes place every year. Typical Dye designs with bermudagrass greens, though obviously played to a higher degree of difficulty. 

We at least have Si Woo Kim as a fine tie between the events, as a past champion here and at THE PLAYERS, whilst he’s also finished runner-up in the RBC Heritage. Additionally, his win at the Sony Open last week could prove a good pointer, with Waialae Country Club a short scorable course, where a hot putter often does the job on the bermudagrass greens.

This event wasn’t formerly called the Desert Classic for nothing and other desert form should surely be seen as a positive. TPC Summerlin and the Shriners Open looking a standout in this regard, not only because of the desert link but the Shriners is also one of the lowest scoring events of the year and ranks closely to the stats from The AmEx in most areas in terms of difficulty.

Lastly I’d look at the RSM Classic at the Sea Island Resort. Though on the opposite side of the states, this multi-course event is played on short courses with bermudagrass greens and ranks closely to The AmEx in relation to how little pressure it puts on your ball-striking. Hudson Swafford is a member there and of course a two-time winner here since 2016. 

The Weather

There is little in the way of wind on show this week and conditions should allow for the traditionally low scoring. Low temperatures the one negative, particularly for those earlier starters throughout the week, which will mean players are losing distance.

The Field

We have five of the top 10 players in the world in attendance this week. Scottie Scheffler heads them at #2 in the world, joined by #4 Jon Rahm, #5 Patrick Cantlay, #6 Xander Schauffele and #7 Will Zalatoris. Further strength added to the field by Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Cameron Young and Sungjae Im from inside the top 20.

Unfortunately, we have no defending champion as Hudson Swafford is now of LIV Golf.

Selections

This is as strong a field I can remember in this event and as such the top of the betting is strong, with Jon Rahm (13/2), Patrick Cantlay (11/1), Scottie Scheffler (11/1) and Tony Finau (14/1) heading the betting.

They’re a tough quartet to get beat but if you’re going to do it anywhere, it’s in a quirky three-course event, where playing time is increased further because of amateurs and a format which generally creates less predictable outcomes.

Indeed, Swafford last year was the latest three-figure winner in an event with a history of it. This following Si Woo Kim who was not short at 60s in 2021, with Andrew Landry and Adam Long the previous two years gettable at prices of 250/1 & 500/1 plus.

With that I’m going to mix some quality from the low-mid/mid range, with a couple of larger priced shots at the end.

Sam Burns 28/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfair) – 2 pts ew

First up is Sam Burns. We were on him two weeks ago in the Tournament of Champions where he ultimately disappointed in a 32nd place finish but he got better over the weekend and as a typically good putter who has a good record in this event, I’m taking him to bounce back in La Quinta.

In Hawaii it was the T2G game that caused concern for Burns, with the putter looking in excellent condition, ranking 3rd in the field. I was buoyed by him producing his two best approach performances of the week over the weekend, culminating in his better scoring and hopefully pointing to a player who had shaken off a bit of rust after the break.

He arrives at a course where his record is strong. Burns followed an 18th place finish on debut in 2019 with a 6th place finish in 2020, before missing the cut for the first time in the event in 2021; though even there he shot -6 in round two following a poor opening +5; that taking him to nine under par rounds in the event out of the ten he’s played and he’s shown a particular ability on the greens at the host Stadium Course.

Burns has been one of the best combined iron-play/putters around over the last two years and it is largely this that has enabled him to start to tot up PGA Tour wins, with four coming in that time. We saw how good the putter was two weeks ago and if the improved weekend approach play continues this week, he can add a 5th title.

Cam Davis 45/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1.25 pts ew

Cam Davis made a solid return to action last week in the Sony Open and with a strong record here, which includes an excellent 3rd place finish in 2021, I fancy him to kick on from there and contend at PGA West.

Davis started well last week with a -4 to sit two off the lead and with the way he hit the ball during that first round – ranking 3rd with driver and iron in hand – was expected to be a big player come Sunday evening. Unfortunately, the irons cooled off a little and he struggled to really get anything going on the greens - despite improving somewhat over the weekend - though he maintained form with the driver, leading the field off-the-tee for the week.

He has quality in each area of his game; an excellent ball-striker who has been consistent in the main with the putter over the last twelve months. He has consistently ranked in the top 25% of players on tour in birdie average; combined with his length off the tee and a good ability in that 150-175 range, where he ranks 27th on tour this season, he looks a good fit for this test.

We certainly have evidence of this in his starts to date. Davis finished 28th on debut in 2019, before returning to finish 29th in 2020 and on his last visit in 2021, was excellent in approach and on the greens, helping him to a 3rd place finish. 

He also has previous at Dye tracks, finishing 3rd in the RBC Heritage last year and a strong record in the Sony, including a best of 9th in 2020 improves my belief this test is ideal for the Aussie.

Sahith Theegala 50/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfair) – 1 pt ew

Hugely talented Sahith Theegala is surely a winner in waiting on the PGA Tour and born just a couple of hours away from this week’s host venue – short by USA standards – this home game looks an ideal chance for him to get his breakthrough win.

He comes here following a subdued first outing of the year two weeks ago in the Tournament of Champions, where he finished 33rd. An event he got into thanks to an excellent first full season on the PGA Tour that saw him put up contending performances with a 2nd place finish at the Travelers Championship and 3rd at the Phoenix Open amongst other strong efforts, resulting in him finishing top 30 in the FedEx Cup and earning him a trip to East Lake for the Tour Championship.

He finished last year in excellent form in the wraparound season, with three top 6s in his final six starts, concluding with another close call when 2nd in the RSM Classic. Showing quality across the board throughout these final events.

This all-round quality has been on show for much of his young career, capable of lights out putting performances and high-class precision iron displays, he makes birdies in bunches and this setup should suit his game. 

We saw this last year, in which a 33rd place finish doesn’t tell the whole story, as he entered the final round in 11th just four off the lead – thanks largely to a superb -10 in round two – before a struggling round four had him falling down the leaderboard.

His best performances from last year all offer further promise, from the similarities in the challenge at the RSM Classic, another Dye course in River Highlands at the Travelers Championship and at TPC Scottsdale in the desert at the Phoenix Open.

He struggled with the driver and putter at Kapalua but there was plenty to like about his iron play, giving us something to work with. Hopefully that effort blew the cobwebs away and he’s set for a big performance this week.

Keith Mitchell 100/1 – 1/5 8 places (Betfair) – 1 pt ew

Keith Mitchell missed the cut at last week’s Sony Open, though he showed a marked improvement in round two which offers plenty of encouragement. Combined with his length off the tee, which I feel could be an asset this week, as well as his well-documented liking for bermudagrass greens, I think he has the profile to perform well this week.

Mitchell had some solid results in 2022: six top 10s with a best of 6th in the Travelers Championship; looking in good nick right before the break, finishing 9th at the Houston Open on his second-to-last start of 2022. Form largely engineered by his typical skillset; a strong power-packed driving game - one which sees him rank amongst the very best drivers on the planet – and quality on the greens, particularly bermudagrass. 

He shot +4 in round one last week, with little to shout about in any area of his game, though turned it around in a big way in round two, gaining strokes in every area and striking the ball well to shoot -4; however, a case of too little too late. Though if he can carry that momentum forward he’d look a lively outsider this week.

Mitchell has only played this event once, finishing 69th in 2018, however his game wasn’t in any shape back then and he wasn’t the PGA Tour winner that he is now – I’m convinced he’s capable of better.

Strong records at the Sony Open and RSM Classic increase my optimism, as does a 13th place finish at last year’s PLAYERS Championship and if Mitchell is able to pick up where he left off in round two of the Sony Open, he can go well this week in La Quinta.

Justin Suh 160/1 – 1/5 8 places (Bet365) – 1 pt ew

I’m going to finish with another California-born player and someone I’m expecting big things of this year. Justin Suh is a former #1 amateur and earned his way onto the PGA Tour thanks to a superb year on the Korn Ferry Tour last season; he hasn’t quite shone yet in the big league but I’m hoping a return home will spark him into life this week.

Suh produced an outstanding ten top 10 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, finally getting that deserved breakthrough victory in the last event of the year: the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. This form came thanks to a game that showed little weakness, ranking amongst the highest players on the tour in birdie average, GIR and overall putting.

This didn’t transfer automatically to life on the PGA Tour, though following missing his first three cuts, he’s made his last four and we’re starting to see more of the ability he possesses in his ball-striking, ranking 14th off-the-tee and 28th in approach last week in the Sony Open when finishing 41st.

He should appreciate this test, not just in his home state but he’s no stranger to desert golf living out in Las Vegas and regularly practicing at TPC Summerlin, where he finished 8th in the 2021 Shriners, a good pointer to this week.

We’re yet to see that putting ability he showed on the KFT last season though he did put solidly for the first two rounds last week, if able to kick on further from there this immensely talented player can finally show everyone what he’s all about this week.