Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Tips: Rasmus Hojgaard to go well in Scotland

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship takes place in Scotland this week and after a winning 6pt tip for Europe to win the Ryder Cup, Jamie Broadhurst returns with his best bets.

What a week it was last week in Italy, as Europe were victorious over the United States team with a final score of 16 ½ - 11 ½ after a late charge from the Americans. Europe regained the Ryder Cup, mainly thanks to a dominant showing in the pairs matches the first two days.

In last week’s preview, Europe were tipped up by myself to win the Ryder cup outright as my headline tip of the week, which was advised at a massive 6pt stake, returning over 13pts in total – making it a profitable week indeed. 

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

A slightly stranger format to what guys are used to this week in Scotland. Players will be partnered each with an Amateur golfer who will play 36 holes of the tournament with them, so play can be slowed down quite a bit to what the professionals are used to.

The tournament consists of the players each playing a round at the three courses of; Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St. Andrews. A cut will then be made, with all players then playing their last round at the 2022 Open Championship venue of St. Andrews.

St. Andrews – Old Course

• Par 72, 7300 yards approx.
• Designer – Old Tom Morris
• Links/Coastal style track
• Fairways – Fescue/Bentgrass
• Rough – Fescue/Bentgrass
• Greens – Predominantly Fescue grass
• 2 x Par 3s – 174 and 188 yards
• 14 x Par 4s – ranging from 348-495 yards
• 2 x Par 5s – 568 and 618 yards

Carnoustie Golf Links – Championship Course

• Holder of 8 Open Championships (latest being 2019, won by Francesco Molinari)
• Par 72 – 7400 yards approx.
• Designer – Old Tom Morris
• Links style track
• 3 x Par 3s – 174, 188 and 249 yards
• 12 x Par 4s – ranging from 348 – 499 yards
• 3 x Par 5s – 505, 510 and 579 yards

Kingsbarns 

• Regular in the Aflred Dunhill Links, holder of the 2017 Women’s Open
• Par 72 – 7230 yards approx.
• Original Designer – Kyle Phillips
• Links/Coastal Track
• 4 x Par 3s – ranging from 148 - 212 yards
• 10 x Par 4s – ranging from 338 – 481 yards
• 4 x Par 5s – ranging from 520 - 606 yards

From a punters point of view reading the above, it is a lot to take in for sure. But let me try and simplify it for you this week; the weather always plays a massive part in this tournament every year, so it really is down to luck (you don’t want to be on the harder course when the wind blows!).

Carnoustie is notoriously the hardest out of the three courses, Kingsbarns is the more scorable course and St. Andrews for the Championship Sunday gets tougher as no Amateurs are involved on Sunday.

Weather for this week so far reads: 

• Thursday – looks dry and settled most of the day, a steady wind with gusts up to 15mph
• Friday – heavy rain starting mid-morning with wind gusts reaching a potential 40mph
• Saturday – dry all day, steady wind of 20mph, gusts up to 30mph
• Sunday – More settled day, dry with winds of 15-20mph

With most of the courses in play this week near the coast, the weather can change in a split second so do not rely too much on this early weather reading.

Most recent winners and their stats

• 2022 winner – Ryan Fox -15
• 2021 winner – Danny Willett -18
• 2019 winner – Victor Perez -22
• 2018 winner – Lucas Bjerregard -15

Average stats for the past 3 winners – Score -16

• 24th Driving Accuracy
• 3rd Greens in Regulation
• 28th Scrambling              
• 10th Putting

No Strokes gained stats have ever been recorded for this event, probably to do with the fact it's at 3 different courses every year and hard to measure. So, we just have the old faithful performance stats to go over this week.

The rough in Scotland is always tricky - the wispy Fescue grass can provide inconsistent torrid lies and the odd natural hazard, burn or bush can prove tricky to avoid or navigate if found. Accuracy is always going to be key, both off the tee and with the irons, so Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation are a must when looking at the stats of our selections this week.

Putting is always going to be a factor on the large greens we are used to seeing in Scotland. Especially at St. Andrews where there are seven shared greens which are huge - errant approaches can easily leave 100 feet+ putts. So, Putting Averages and 3-putt avoidance will also be key this week.

The last stat I will look at is Par 4 scoring, with players playing on Par 4s 66% of the time this week, they take up 36 of the 54 holes they will face on the three courses. So, looking at that, a glance over how guys have performed on Par 4s this year will not go amiss.

Selections for the Dunhill Links Championship

Three each way selections this week for you guys, 1.65pts each way on each of the three selections gives us a 10pt stake again in total, good luck!

Billy Horschel 25/1
Recent Form – 20-18-45-4-13
Tournament Form – 10-36

Starting the card off with an American in the field and it really is good to see a few of them making the trip up to Scotland! He loves playing on the DP World Tour with his biggest win in Europe being the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth GC. He is an accurate and gritty sort of player whose skills will really suit this track, as shown in his last two showings here in Scotland.

Rasmus Hojgaard 33/1
Recent Form – 4-T45-MC-MC-T39
Tournament Form – 17

A very inconsistent year for Rasmus following a nasty injury around the start of the year which forced him to pull out of the Hero Cup team event which seemed to be the Ryder cup warm up for the lads. A 4th place finish last time out was much better at a really solid track, in his prime we definitely wouldn’t be getting 33/1 on him and surely he is buoyed with confidence after watching his twin brother being part of the winning European team last week in Italy!

Niklas Moller 80/1
Recent Form – MC-T45-T36-T14-MC
Tournament Form - 7

A youngster on the Tour, who is gaining more and more good experience as he goes on. Moller hits it a mile and really impressed me when following him during his final round at The British Masters where he did unfortunately falter away towards the end, but his Tee2Green game is excellent and clearly loves windy conditions. A 7th placed finish here last year on debut is no mean feat either! All signs are positive indeed for this 80/1 shot.