Alfred Dunhill Championship Tips: Three selections for South African trip
Jamie Broadhurst previews this week's latest on the European Tour as the field make their way to Leopard Creek for the 19th edition of the Alfred Dunhill Championship on this course.
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Moving back over to the DP World Tour this week for their third and final week in South Africa. The players are in Malelane, South Africa this week at Leopard Creek Country Club for its 18th renewal of the Alfred Dunhill Championships. The tournament has been held here since 2004, apart from the year 2021 where the tournament was cancelled last minute due to strict travel restrictions caused by COVID-19. Local boy Ockie Strydom won here last year in 2022 and will be defending his title here this week.
The tournament this week is once again co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour which is South Africa's own tour, so expect some Sunshine regulars to put up a fight in familiar conditions on home soil.
Leopard Creek Country Club
- Par 72, 7250 yards
- Gary Player design
- 4 x Par 3s - ranging from 155-205 yards
- 10 x Par 4s - ranging from 311-489 yards (6/11, 450 yards or under)
- 4 x Par 5s - ranging from 552-580 yards
- Course redesigned in 2017/18 by Gary Player
- Fairways/Rough replaced with Bermuda Grass
- Greens replaced with Bermuda Grass also
- Wide but undulating fairways lined by thick trees/bushes
This course is a beauty to watch on television that’s for sure and one that players look forward to playing for sure. From the neighbouring sites of wildlife from the Kruger National Park which borders the course, too the common appearances of crocodiles in the 'Crocodile River' that situates itself at various points on the course.
The course overall this week is quite a short Par 72, with its yardage made up majorly by the four Par 5s, which in fact are all shortish holes in terms on Tour standards and will be reachable in two shots for most this week. If a golfer gains momentum early on this week the course does present itself vulnerable to a big hitting bomber to overpower it, so i may include one or two of the longer than average hitters in my selections this week.
The hole layout and their yardages on paper make the course look really scoreable, but the new Bermuda turf has provided a very different test the last four times we have seen it since the course revamp. Scores of -18, -14 twice and -8 shows how much the course has changed since the days of Charl Schwartzel's winning score of -24 in 2012. The sweltering hot weather will make the fairways and greens run true and fast, so that will make things even more of a test for the guys this week.
Recent Winners
2022 – Ockie Strydom -18
2020 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout -14
2019 – Pablo Larrazabal -8
2018 – David Lipsky -14
Average Statistics
24th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
32nd Driving Accuracy
12th Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
17th Strokes Gained: Approach
6th Greens in Regulation
8th Scrambling
12th Putting
Stats to consider this week
- Course form
- Strokes Gained: Tee2Green/Greens in Regulation
- Scrambling/Putting
- Par 4 scoring
Course form has historically always held up here and a typical South African course like this has a certain feel too it that the players can get used to and comfy with. So, I will be looking for a player who either has had a good record/finish here before or has consistently performed well in South Africa either on the Sunshine or DP World Tour.
A tough course means players always have to do 2 things correct in order to contend. They must have good iron play and they must be able to grind to scramble pars/bogeys when necessary. Leopard Creek is no exception to this rule. A smattering of players who finished in the top 10 last year found themselves towards the top of the rankings for stats like Strokes Gained: Tee2Green/Greens in Regulation/Scrambling and Putting.
Par 4 scoring is my last stat to consider this week. Over 50% of them this week are under 450 yards, so coming in at well under Tour averages. This means that this is where most of the scoring will occur this week, I am therefore looking for a guy that performs well on these types of holes week in week out.
To contend on this tough track though this week, the players will have to do a lot right and avoid as many mistakes as they possibly can, as if they get out of position at Leopard Creek, big numbers lurk for sure. Especially if the forecast of hot and dry weather comes true Thursday through to Sunday!
Alfred Dunhill Championship Tips
Selections
Just the three each way selections again this week in the 8-place market on Bet365, looking to follow the good 16/1 place in last week’s preview. Again, 10pts across the three. Good Luck!
Zander Lombard 25/1
Recent Form (this season) – 12-4
Course Form – MC-MC
Zander doesn't have the greatest of form at Leopard Creek as of late, however, nobody can deny his form on the DP World Tour over the last nine months or so. Reaching the DP World Tour Championships for the first time in seven years in his career. He has started this season where he left off, where he has has back to back top-15 finishes in his home country of South Africa. I am positive he can come here and continue his brilliant ball striking form and put in another consistent week.
Jayden Schaper 33/1
Recent Form (this season) – 5-9
Course Form – 26-2
One of the futures of South African golf, a star that has risen through from the Sunshine Tour and is now looking to make a name for himself on the DP World Tour. He hits the ball a mile, where he has averaged over 320 yards off the tee in his first two starts this season. He can for sure overpower this course and has had a good crack at it the last two years here at Leopard Creek. Back Jayden at what looks to be a juicy price.
Ross Fisher 66/1
Recent Form (this season) – 17-12
Course Form – 17
A somewhat DP World Tour veteran here, but Ross is very suited to South African conditions as the mistakes he makes are very minimal and he is a very straight hitter of the golf ball. Ross has found some extra yards it seems of late, as he averages almost 340 yards off the tee after his first two starts on Tour this season. 9th for Strokes Gained Tee2Green and 7th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee is nothing to be ashamed of and a continuation of that will put him in great stead this week as he looks to better his 17th place finish here last season.
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