
3M Open Tips: Five selections in Minnesota

Now that the majors for 2023 have finished we get back to the run up to the end of the PGA Tour season and the build up to the FedEx cup playoff events. This week we move onto the 3M Open, which will be competed at TPC Twin Cities in the area of Blaine in Minnesota.
The best finish for us last week at The Open Championship was a tied for 10th finish from 60/1 tip Max Homa, unfortunately missing the places by 1 stroke which provided a very disappointing end to a poor week for the tips.
150/1 shot pre-tournament Brian Harman was an impressive winner by 5 strokes to claim his first career major championship. A massive priced winner for such a prestigious and what was his first since 2017.
This will be the 4th edition of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, succeeding the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour which ran between 2001-2018.
TPC Twin Cities
- Par 71, 7430 yards approx.
- Arnold Palmer design (Tom Lehman and Tim Herron re-design in 2018)
- Bentgrass greens
- 4 x Par 3s – 177-230 yards
- 11 x Par 4s – 379-503 yards
- 3 x Par 5s – 593-596 yards
- Short rough off the easy to hit fairways
- Large greens
- Water hazards in play on 15 holes
On first look at Twin Cities, it seems very easy on the eye and very scorable for all players. When looking at the winning scores on the Champions Tour and that of the last three years, Twin Cities can be seen as a birdie fest, its biggest defence is the amount of water on the course. Coming into play on roughly 15 holes, whether in play for players Off the Tee or beside the greens on their approach shots, the water is always dangerous and can be quite a magnet for golf balls, especially when I play the game! So, avoiding these hazards at all costs will be the play of the week for the guys.
Last Four Winners
2022 winner – Tony Finau -17
2021 winner - Cameron Champ -15
2020 winner – Michael Thompson -19
2019 winner – Matthew Wolff -21
Average stats for the last 4 winners – Score -17
29th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
10th Strokes Gained: Tee2Green
8th Greens in Regulation
6th Strokes Gained: Approach
19th Scrambling
7th Putting Average
TPC Twin Cities sits at a slight altitude so driving distances will be boosted this year and 2/3 of the past winners of this tournament on the PGA Tour are renowned for their SG: Off the Tee prowess, so I will be looking at that as a starting point for sure this week.
Proximity to the hole and SG: Approach will be highlighted again this week, similarly to the last two weeks. Just like at the Renaissance Club and at Royal Liverpool we are presented with large greens again so getting the ball closest to the hole regularly to optimize birdie opportunities will be the play of the week if players want to contend for the title come Sunday.
Putting performances on these wide Bentgrass greens I think will be a factor I look at for this week. There is a knack for playing birdie fests well and a guy who can constantly role their rock on these large greens will have a great chance this week.
Long Par 3 performances/scoring average I will take a look at this week, all four of them are above 175 yards long with the longest at 230 yards, this is one of the longest we see on tour. Players who constantly strike their irons well off the tee will be needed here.
Stats to look for this week
- SG: Off the Tee
- SG: Approach/Proximity to the hole
- Putting experience on large Bentgrass greens
- Par 3 scoring
Field/Odds
SIx of the World’s Top-40 golfers are here this week in Minnesota; Cam Young, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama. And by my calculations 19 players are submitted into this week’s field that tee’d it up last week at Royal Liverpool for The Open. A week after a major you would expect a poor showing indeed, however the FedEx cup playoffs are just around the corner and the criteria to qualify for the first playoff event has got a lot stricter, going from the top 125 in the FedEx Cup to just the top 70. So, competition for these top 70 spaces will be hotter than ever.
World number 19 Tony Finau heads this week’s betting market as favourite at 12/1 on bet365. Since his win in Mexico at Vidanta, Tony’s best finish has been a tie for 23rd the week after the win so he is not in the best form at all. His second big missed cut in a row at The Open last week would not help his confidence levels, despite being defending champion this week, fade Tony at 12/1 for sure.
My pick from the top of the market is second favourite, World Number 15 Cameron Young at 14/1. A tied 8th finish last week in Liverpool to back up a tied 6th finish at the John Deere Classic prior to that. He seems to be piecing things back together after a slow couple of months. On a course that rewards such a good tee shot, he needs to be considered this week to carry on his form.
Only four more players come between Cam Young and the 30/1 mark in the market; Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1, Justin Thomas 20/1, Sungjae Im 20/1 and Emiliano Grillo 25/1. A pretty weak group of guys based on current form, if picking one on current form however it would have to be Emiliano Grillo at 25/1. A good showing again last week from him, which included some very nice tidy play, in addition to a top 5 finish at the 3M open in 2022 makes great reading, but I would never touch the guy at such low odds.
Guys that I am considering a lot this week and may well feature in my selections and bigger than 30/1 odds include; Sahith Theegala, Cam Davis, Nicolai Hojgaard, Eric Cole and Luke List at triple figure odds.
3M Open Tips
3M Open Selections
Five selections for you all this week as usual! 1pt each way with 8 places on all picks unless stated otherwise! Let’s turn our luck around and land a winner!
Cameron Young 15/1 (2pts Win only – Enhanced Win market on Bet365)
Recent Form – 8-6-60-32-57
Course Form - DEBUT
I mentioned earlier in the preview that Cam was my pick of the guys from the top of the market and I have managed to get some extra value from the Enhanced Win market so I thought I would take him. Cameron Young ranks 12th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on Tour this year so far, 27th for Strokes Gained: Tee2Green, 26th for Greens in Regulation and 43rd for Strokes Gained Approach. It is his debut here at Twin cities this week, but I really believe this course suits his eye. I am confident with this one!
Cameron Davis 40/1
Recent Form – MC-17-33-MC-MC
Course Form – 16-28-12-MC
A player I have rarely backed on Tour due to his inconsistencies, but when Davis seems to find a course he likes then he plays well regularly at them. With 3 top 30 finishes in his last 3 starts here I am going to chance my arm! A tale of two stories this season has been for Cameron Davis. When he has made the cut then he has made a really good fight and finished well but when he misses the cut, he seems to miss it by a few! So there really is an element of risk to this selection this week but if there’s a week where he can pull it off then this is one of them.
Patrick Rodgers 40/1
Recent Form – 2-MC-MC-MC-32
Course Form – 32-39
Playoff loser to Akshay Bhatia at the Barracuda Championship, Patrick Rodgers is overpriced considering his play last week, his stats for this season and his history here at Twin Cities. Top-50 for five out of the six main Strokes Gained categories, 37th for Off the Tee and 30th Around the Green being the highlights with also averaging way over 300 yards with the Driver.
Two out of two made cuts here previously and finished in the top-40 each time, gaining good strokes from Tee2Green on both occasions. He can be erratic Off the Tee and on his Approach, but will most likely get away with it this week with these fairways/greens, he makes up strokes around the green and on the greens so I am positive he can go well again here.
Adam Hadwin 45/1
Recent Form – MC-2-59-12-MC
Course Form – 38-6-4
Another horse for this course! Making all three cuts here in his starts he has made and all top 40 finishes. Hadwin has gained strokes in all categories two out of the three times he has played here. He unfortunately lost in a three man playoff two starts back, but showed excellent signs that week. Top-70 for all but one Strokes Gained categories this year on Tour shows he has not got much of a weakness and I genuinely think 45/1 is great value when you look at some of the names that are before him in the market.
Matt Wallace 100/1
Recent Form – MC-42-78-MC-48
Course Form – 28
A flier on a selection for my fifth and final tip for this week’s 3M Open. Matt Wallace may not be in the best form, but has won this season in the Dominican Republic. He missed the cut by 2 shots last week at The Open however played four solid rounds the week before at the Scottish Open which included a 65 on his second round. 28th was his finish last year when he made his debut here in Minnesota. 57th for Approach on the season and 16th for Around the Green game will put him in great stead for this week. There are a lot worse selections to take at 100/1+ for sure!

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