Odds shown as:

Wakefield By-Election Odds: Labour open as short-priced favourites

Sir Keir Starmer can lead Labour to a big by-election win if the odds are to be believed
Sir Keir Starmer can lead Labour to a big by-election win if the odds are to be believed

By-elections for the governing party are rarely plain sailing but even so - the recent history for Boris Johnson has been rather choppy waters. Now the Tories will have to defend a so-called ‘red wall’ seat gained in 2019 and the bookies do not expect them to do so.

Neil Monnery takes an early look at the betting ahead of the Wakefield by-election, which should happen at some point later this summer...

Conservative MP for Wakefield, Imran Ahmad Khan, was found guilty of assaulting a 15 year-old boy. Despite initially saying he was going to appeal the verdict and attempt to stay on as an MP, he announced last Thursday that he would indeed be stepping down from his position whilst continuing his legal proceedings in an attempt to clear his name.

That statement meant that a by-election writ would be moved in the House of Commons in due course to elect a new MP for the seat, one which hadn’t returned a Member of Parliament who didn’t wear the red rosette of Labour since 1931 before the 2019 General Election.

Don’t be fooled however into thinking of this as a traditional red wall seat despite it posting a 66% Leave vote back in the 2016 EU Referendum as the Tories have been knocking on the door of taking the seat ever since the 1979 General Election, with only the John Major close win of 1992 and Tony Blair years seeing significant majorities for Labour.

This then on paper should be a real slugfest but the early odds indicate that Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party are expected to pull off the big win with BetFred (1/8) the best price available at the time of writing. Don’t be at all surprised by this because the Conservative Party are languishing in the polls and are strewn with political scandals from the top down. This by-election will also come on the back of a Cost of Living crisis, which is affecting constituents up and down the land.

The ‘Partygate’ scandal, which has seen a sitting Prime Minister found guilty of breaking his own Coronavirus rules has not gone down well. His colleagues are rallying around claiming it was a very small issue and with more important things going on in the world, it should basically be a footnote at best. The problem with that attitude is millions of people did follow the rules and knowing the Prime Minister was having a short birthday party makes them feel stupid for obeying the law. Stories of people being given huge fines whilst the PM and Chancellor of Exchequer get a £50 slap on the wrist also boils the blood.

This by-election won’t be played out in front of a backdrop of the House of Commons being paralysed by Brexit either. In 2019, many just wanted it over so the government could get on with the job of governing the country. This time round it will be yet another referendum on how they are doing having been given the green light to get on with running the country.

They flunked that referendum in Remain voting Chesham & Amersham but when they got beaten by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire, it showed that this wasn’t just a small protest vote in a leafy area. If Sir Ed Davey’s party are beating the Tories in a big Leave voting area, anything goes in by-elections.

Labour won’t be putting forward former MP Mary Creagh as the 14-year veteran of the role has announced that she won’t be seeking the Labour nomination for the seat. Whoever gets the nod though will start as a very short-priced favourite to give Boris Johnson another by-election bloody nose.

The truth is the pressure will be off Boris Johnson in terms of how the media will portray the result. Yet a big defeat will see plenty of the 2019 intake of Tory MPs feel very uneasy about their chances of retaining their seats at the next General Election and that in itself could cause the PM problems.

For Sir Keir Starmer, this should be an open goal. Leading his party to victory and putting in a performance where they clear 50% of the vote seems more than feasible. Doing so would give him ample ammunition to signal that he’s taking Labour in the right direction as they look to win the next General Election.

A win with under 50% will give those in the party still loyal to two-time General Election loser Jeremy Corbyn something to crow. They still want the party to move further left as they believe principle is more important than victory and with it, the power to enact policies. So a strong victory here will shore up his own position along with showing the country that Labour to where they can win swing seats.

George Galloway has signaled that his Workers Party of Britain will field a candidate along with the Yorkshire Party. This is likely to muddy the waters a little bit but a Labour romp is the rightful favourite as the contest starts.

Politics Betting
Advert Disclaimer
Bettingodds.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Bettingodds.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As Cash If It Loses
#AD 18+ New Customer Offer. Place your FIRST bet at odds of min 2.0 (EVS) and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using debit cards will qualify for this promotion (Apple Pay deposits excluded). T&C's apply, BeGambleAware.Org
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
#AD New UK customers (Excluding NI) mobile only. £30 in FREE Bets (FB) as £20 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. FB applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. FB 7 day expiry. 1 FB offer per customer, household & IP address only. Payment restrictions. 14 days to accept £10 CB, then active for 3 days. CB 5x wagering & max redeemable £100. Game restrictions apply. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&C's Apply. **18+. Prices subject to fluctuation and availability.  T&Cs apply
Welcome Offer
#AD Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+ New Customers Only - Place a £10 Sportsbook bet on at min. odds 1.5 (1/2) — get £30 in free bets. Only deposits via cards will qualify, Apple pay not valid on this promotion. T&Cs apply, BeGambleaware.org
Money Back As A Bonus Up To £40 If Your First Bet Loses + £10 casino
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org. New customers only. Min deposit £10. Money back as bonus if first sports bet loses. Wagering requirements: sportsbook 3x at min. odds of 1.40 (2/5), casino 50x. Unless forfeited the sportsbook bonus must be wagered before using the casino bonus. Bonus expires 7 days after opt-in. Visit Unibet.co.uk for full T&C's.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code R30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 3 x £10/€10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins on Big Bass Bonanza, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly.
Double the odds, any sport, any bet, any odds!
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org Only valid for new registrations to Grosvenor Existing members do not qualify, Bet must be placed using real money in combination with the Odds Boost Token, Offer applies to Sport bets only. Max stake is £10. Each way bets are a maximum of £5 each way (£10 total). Customers have 60 days after registration to use the Odds Boost token. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets
#AD 18+, New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 on any sports (odds 2.00+) in 7 days. No cash out. Get 4x£5 sports free bets for set markets (odds 2.00+), which expire in 7 days. Offer is valid from 10:00 UK time on 16/01/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply. begambleaware.org | Please Gamble Responsibly
£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 50 Bonus Spins
#AD 18+ New UK customers only. Min Deposit: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. This is offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. 50 Bonus Spins credited on placement of qualifying Acca bet.50x bonus wagering applies as do weighting requirements, bonus Spins only available on selected games and expires 7 days after being awarded. Debit card deposits only (exclusions apply). 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Bet The Responsible Way. Full terms apply
Bet £25 get £50 In Bonuses
#AD Place a qualifying £25 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater and get £50 in bonuses 5 x £5 free fixed odds bets, 4 x free £5 spread bets + 50 free spins on Starburst. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. T&Cs Apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
New 18+ UK customers only. Register using the promo code WELCOME40, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets and £10 in Free Spins (50x20p) credited within 10 hours of bet settlement. Free Bet stakes are not included in any returns. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets
#AD New customers only - Significant terms: opt-in and deposit within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 free bets. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.3) or greater, stake not returned. T&Cs apply, BeGambleAware.org
Bet £10 Get £10 In Free Bets (APP Only)
#AD New UK, IE & Malta customers only. Min £10/€10 first deposit using Debit Card. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 1.5 and get a £10 free bet. Full T&Cs apply.18+. BeGambleAware.org.
100% Profit Boost up to £100 (Mobile Only)
#AD New UK customers only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via "My Offers" page within 30 days. Skrill/Neteller deposits excluded. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play. Max. extra winnings £100.T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 get £15
#AD New customers only. 18+ begambleaware.org 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £15 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at a min. odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.T&C's apply.
Bet £10 get £10
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org, Welcome Bonus: This offer is for new customers only and is available once per household. Max. FreeBet amount: £10 Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is: £10 void/cancelled or cashed out bets do not count towards wagering to activate the free bet. Offer valid only to customers making a first deposit of £10 or more. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 get £20
#AD New customers only, welcome bonus: 1st deposit, min deposit: £10, max £20 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. system bets are not eligible. Neteller, Skrill, and PayPal are not eligible. , 18+ begambleaware.org
50% Up To £50 Welcome Bonus
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org; New bettors get 50% of deposit up to £50; Once per household; Min deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Wager a total of 8 times deposit + bonus, with max qualifying bet stake equal to your initial bonus amount; Bonus expires after 60 days; Min odds of 4/5 on singles, or 2/5 per leg for acca; Some bet types excluded; See full terms.
£35 Free Bet + 10 Free Spins
#AD If your account has Sportsbook losses at the end of your first day's betting, QuinnBet will refund 50% of your losses as a Free Bet up to £35 (min 3 bets) Plus 10 Free Spins. Even if your account is up, you're guaranteed a £5 Free Bet Plus 10 Free Spins provided you place at least 1 bet of £10 or greater at the minimum odds. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | BeGambleAware.org