Odds shown as:

US Politics: Will Donald defy the odds again on election day?

On Monday Betfair reported a punter had place a £1m bet on Joe Biden to become the next President at odds of 1/2
On Monday Betfair reported a punter had place a £1m bet on Joe Biden to become the next President at odds of 1/2

The day has come, the 2020 US Election is finally upon us and @AnthonyEadson is here to give us the latest odds and insight into what has been one of the most interesting betting events in history.

I woke up this morning to see a video of Donald Trump dancing to the YMCA, telling his fans to go out and vote for him on his very own Twitter channel. It’s certainly not how many people envisioned US Politics would be translated to the masses in 2020 but in just a few hours time we should be closer to knowing whether or not Donald Trump will win a second term in the White House 

The Latest Odds

Donald Trump - 6/4 

Will history repeat itself? Can Donald upset the odds once again? These are the questions on the minds of many punters on Tuesday and with odds of 6/4 to be the Next President, Trump is certainly the outsider just as he was four years ago. Odds of 6/4 imply a 40% chance that we will be seeing Trump in for a second term. Four of the last five Presidents of the United States have gained a second term and if he was to fail, Trump would be the first since George Bush Senior to do so. 

Joe Biden  - 4/7

Joe Biden has been the favourite with bookmakers since August 1st when the two prices both traded at 2.0 (1/1) on the Betfair Exchange. Since then we have seen a significant swing in the betting markets with Biden’s price continuing to shorten all the way into 4/7. That’s a 64% implied probability of victory for the former vice president.

Records tumbling

Up until around just a week ago the record for the highest total amount placed on a market with the Betfair Exchange in history was £199m which had been placed on the ‘Next US President’ market back in 2016 for Clinton v Trump.

The record has now been completely blown out the water with a staggering £320m having been placed on the event on the Betfair Exchange. Forecasters are now predicting that figure could rise to an eye watering £450m before the close of play on tuesday.

Punters from across the globe are also weighing in with their wagers for the event and yesterday Betfair reported that someone had placed a £1m wager on Joe Biden to be the next President at odds of 1/2 (1.5).

This in fact is the biggest ever Political Bet placed in history with the punter in question set to bag theirselves a cool £500k profit with a combined return of £1.5m if the former vice-president is to defeat Donald and become the 46th President of the United States.

How does this compare to other betting events?

So with the news that The 2020 Next President Market has become the most bet on event in the history of the Betfair Exchange, let’s have a look at how this compares to other key sporting and political events in the past.

2016 very much rewrote the script for Political Betting for certain punters as there were huge shocks in both Trump winning the US election and Britain voting to leave the EU in the referendum. The latter had over £113m placed on the event which is still enormous when you compare to the events below.

Political Betting is clearly a growing area and you only have to see from these figures how they can dwarf some of the biggest events on the planet. The figures below show the amounts placed with the Betfair Exchange.

  • £51m - Floyd Mayweather v Conor McGregor

  • £39m - 2018 World Cup Winner

  • £10m - 2019 Grand National

  • £7m - 2020 Super Bowl Winner
Trump Biden
Political Betting

How and when will my bet be settled?

According to Betfair and their market rules around how the Next President market will be settled, there are three different scenarios.

1) Bet settled on Tuesday night

Out of the three possible scenarios this is the least likely. Joe Biden would need to secure a sizeable win in Florida with other key states having to report their results faster than anticipated.

2) Settled on Wednesday or Thursday

A lot more likely than the first scenario as the logistics behind the election can often take time. There has already been a large increase in the amount of postal voters which will take longer to count than the previous elections. This may cause betting markets to stay open throughout this counting period.

3) Contested Result

A contested result could happen if we see a margin of less than 1% in some of the key swing states. Again Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania could all be key here and this could also potentially lead to a recount.
If there is a contested result, it will most likely lead to a legal battle regarding recount and for the Supreme Court to potentially decide the winner. 

It may be worth checking with your bookmaker around which market rules apply here and how your bet will be settled, but one thing is for sure, if Donald does get beat, he will not go quietly. 

In my opinion, yes there have been big Political betting upsets in 2016 but i don’t see history repeating itself here. We cannot simply base the narrative of this election on the happenings of 2016 and I do think the polls and the betting markets have this one right and that Joe Biden will become the next President. 

It could be a long battle in the Supreme Court with Donald dragging his feet but whatever happens it sure has rewritten the history books in terms of Political Betting.

Free Betting Offers
Advert Disclaimer
Bettingodds.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Bettingodds.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets (APP Only)
#AD New UK, IE & Malta customers only. 18+. Min £10/€10 first deposit using Debit Card or Trustly. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 1.5. Free bets expire in 90 days. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after  settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after  the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Welcome Offer
#AD Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £60 in Bonuses
#AD New UK customers only. Register using the promo code BETFRED60, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £20 in Free Bets to be used on Sports, £10 in Free Bets to be used on Lotto and 50 Free Spins (20p per spin) credited within 48 hours of bet settlement. Further £20 in Free Bets credited 5 days after settlement. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply.
100% Up To £50 Welcome Bonus + 25 Spins
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org; New bettors get 100% of deposit up to £50; Once per household; Min deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Wager a total of 8 times deposit + bonus, with max qualifying bet stake equal to your initial bonus amount; Bonus expires after 60 days; Min odds of 4/5 on singles, or 2/5 per leg for acca; Some bet types excluded; Free spins validity: 7 days; Free spins max. winnings = £100; See full terms; Terms apply.
Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets + £10 Bonus
#AD Promo code: 30FB • Min deposit £10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days and expires after 14 days • To withdraw any winnings from the Casino Bonus, wager the Bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & Full T&Cs apply. 18+ & Begambleaware
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD Min stake £10. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). First bet only. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. Online UK customers only. 30 days to qualify for £20 in Free Bets. 18+. T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins on Big Bass Bonanza, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As CASH If It Loses
#AD New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any Football market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using cards will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD Place a min £10 bet on the Sportsbook on odds of min 1/2 (1.5), get £30 in Free Bets. Rewards valid for 30 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly
£40 In Bonuses
#AD Place a qualifying £25 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. A first free £5 fixed odds bet will be credited upon settlement of the qualifying bet. 4 x following £5 free fixed odds bets will be added to your account on consecutive days. Free bets and spins must be claimed within 28 days of opening. Free bet/spin stake not included in any winnings. Ts&Cs Apply. 18+ begambleaware.org