US Open Women's Final Predictions: Best bets for Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka
A coveted place in the history books is up for grabs for one of Jessica Pegula or Aryna Sabalenka when they clash in the US Open Women's Final on Saturday (9pm BST).
US Open Women's Final Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka is back in the final for a second successive year following her three-set defeat to Coco Gauff in 2023. The Belarusian initially surged into a 6-2 lead, only for Gauff to bounce back to secure her maiden Grand Slam title.
Earlier this season, Sabalenka successfully defended her Australian Open title, and now she has the chance to win her third Grand Slam title on Saturday. As the second seed, she has only dropped one set on her path to Saturday's showdown, and is the odds-on favourite to win, with most bookmakers offering odds around 8/13.
Standing in her way this time is another American, New York-born Jessica Pegula, who at 30 years old, is competing in her first Grand Slam final. Before this tournament, Pegula had never advanced beyond the quarter-finals in any Grand Slam, having faced disappointment at this stage six times in her last 14 appearances.
Similar to Sabalenka, Pegula has also lost just one set at Flushing Meadows and achieved a remarkable 6-2 6-4 victory over top seed Iga Swiatek, which broke her quarter-final jinx.
Despite her impressive performances over the past two weeks, she is currently priced as the 3/1 outsider to win her first Grand Slam title on Saturday.
Jessica Pegula Route To Final
- First Round: Defeated Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3
- Second Round: Defeated Sofia Kenin 7-6 6-3
- Third Round: Defeated Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3
- Fourth Round: Defeated Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2
- Quarter-Finals: Defeated Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-4
- Semi-Finals: Defeated Karolína Muchová 6-1 4-6 6-2
Aryna Sabalenka Route To Final
- First Round: Defeated Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3
- Second Round: Defeated Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1
- Third Round: Defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2
- Fourth Round: Defeated Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4
- Quarter-Finals: Defeated Zheng Qinwen 7-5 6-2
- Semi-Finals: Defeated Emma Navarro 6-3 7-6
Sabalenka will use the pain of last year's final defeat to fuel her quest for glory in the States this weekend. She is well-acquainted with high-profile, high-stakes matches, with this her fourth final in her last seven Grand Slam appearances. On two of those occasions, she emerged victorious, and she currently boasts a 12-match winning streak, while she's lost only once in her last 13 matches at Flushing Meadows.
On top of that, she holds a 5-2 advantage over Pegula in their head-to-head matchups, and has won five of their last six meetings, including a 6-3 7-5 win in the Cincinnati final just weeks ago.
Unlike in that match, I'm backing Pegula to clinch a set this time around given her stunning form - she's only lost once in her last 17 matches - however, while she will be a tough nut to crack, hard-court specialist Sabalenka has the form, experience, and thunderous power to get over the line and defeat her opponent for the second time in three weeks, with the 26-year-old priced at 11/4 with Sky Bet to claim a two sets to one win.
US Open Women's Final Betting Offer
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Sabalanka possesses one of the most formidable serves on the tour, showcased in a return of 30 aces so far in this tournament, and she's available at 8/11 to achieve over 5.5 aces in the final.
However, she has also recorded 15 double faults, including a whopping five during her semi-final victory over Navarro. She is priced at 4/5 to exceed Pegula's double fault count on Saturday, which looks very achievable given that Pegula has only committed four double faults in her last three matches.
By combining these two bets, you get yourself a Bet Builder valued at 2/1 with bet365.
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