US Open Tips: Five picks for Major glory at Los Angeles Country Club

The third Major of 2023 is here and after an agonising play-off defeat for 22/1 pick Tommy Fleetwood last time out at the Canadian Open, our man Jamie Broadhurst is hoping to go one place better with five each-way picks for the US Open...

Well… what a tough beat last week was. We had 22/1 Tommy Fleetwood head into a Sunday playoff with local Canadian Nick Taylor. It took 4 holes for them to settle a result, unfortunately not the way we wanted it! But it was a massive result for the Canadian to get a win at his home open! He did it in emphatic style by holing a 72 foot putt for eagle to beat our man Tommy.

Very unlucky as I say but the 22/1 place from Fleetwood went nicely with the 80/1 3rd place in Aaron Rai, meaning that we finished with 2 full places on the week and over double our money in profit. 10pts staked last week and just under 23pts were returned which keeps the profitable weeks ticking over nicely.

Onto the big one this week then…

US Open

Well, the year is absolutely flying by. I cannot believe I am sitting here in June preparing to write about the US Open and the 3rd major championship of the year! What a great week we have in store again to sink our teeth into.

Every major championship is played on a testing course, never giving the players any respite. But the courses the US Open are played on are next level tough. This year the USGA has given the 123rd US Open to the Los Angeles Country Club, located on the West coast of the United States in Los Angeles, California.

Formally established in 1911, a 36-hole layout (North & South courses) estate was constructed, replacing the former 9-hole course that was first place here on the property in 1897. The course has only held a handful of PGA Tour events back in the 1920s, 30s and 40s. These being the Los Angeles Opens of; 1926, 1934, 1935, 1936 and 1940.

The only kind of insight we have this week is from 2017, when L.A Country Club played host to the Walker Cup, the team event that involves the leading Amateurs from the United States and Great Britain & Ireland. For research purposes for those who take note, players who played that particular week in 2017 of note were; Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Cam Champ, Mav McNealy, Doug Ghim, Will Zalatoris, Robert MacIntyre and Connor Syme. Just the 2 contenders will be teeing it up here this week in Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa. United States were victorious that week 19-7 over their opponents. The last thing to potentially keep in mind from that week is that Collin Morikawa took part in 4 matches, and was successful in all 4, so finished the week with a record of 4/0/0. Pretty impressive for a young amateur at the time on such a demanding course.

The Course

Having seen the usual videos on Twitter from various accounts that arrived at L.A CC last week of them dropping balls into the rough, it looks thick and gnarly. Put it this way… the guys will not want to be spending too much time in it this week if they want to do well in this tournament!. Erratic drives are not an option.

On paper, the fairways this week are wider than your typical U.S Open layout for sure, averaging 5-10 yards wider on average at the typical landing points on most holes. However, players will find that they play fairly narrow this week due to the numerous slopes that are in play on the short grass here. Landing the ball in the fairway is one thing but landing it in the right areas so that the ball stays on the fairway once it has finished rolling is another challenge!

Numerous bunkers lurk off these fairways and next to the greens this week as ever, with various pieces of natural wasteland included by them. Around the bunkers are where the thickest of this rough tends to be, meaning it is not just off the tee accuracy that is paramount this week.

Around the greens and on them is where this week will be won or lost. Miss the greens and players will have to scramble like hell through the thick stuff to save their Pars. Players will have to be really precise with approach plays as the week goes on to hold these greens as conditions look to be firm, dry and very fast. The golfers may even have to aim to play their approach shots to bounce before the greens to roll onto them for a better proximity to these holes.

Lastly, it would be crazy not to mention the setup of the North Course. Par 70 that consists of 5 Par 3s for a starter, meaning we need to look into Par 3 stats from the guys that go on our eventual list this week. The yardages are peculiar too. The shortest lies at a measly 124 yards on paper, that apparently can be reduced to 75 yards if the Tour decide to, and then there is 3 of the holes over 220 yards with the longest sitting at 290 yards… yes you read that right! This means a lot of guys in the field will be taking driver into the 11th hole for sure! Something we never see on a usual PGA Tour set up

The set of Par 4s looks like a pretty standard set for a major set up like this. We have risk and reward at a couple of holes where the longer hitters in the field may be able to reach in one shot off the tee. And then we have 2 Par 4s that stand over 520 yards, with the longest being 542 yards, which is in fact longer than the shortest Par 5 on the North Course. This hole will indeed take 2 almighty hits to reach the greenside in regulation!

The Par 5s are where players will gain their ground this week. 2 of the 3 of them are easily reachable in 2 shots for most of the field, so they will be hoping to yield a birdie/eagle at these holes every time they play them.

Stats to Consider

I feel like I have previewed some tough courses and the guys have also visited some really tough courses of late, so I will keep it nice and simple again this week.

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee – accuracy is a must to include
• Greens in Regulation, long irons
• Scrambling/Scrambling from the rough
• Bogey Avoidance
• Recent form/major form
• Par 3 scoring

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee – Find the fairway and in the right positions, it really is that pivotal this week to set up chances.

Greens In Regulation – As I have mentioned, players will be faced with firm and fast greens this week. Greens in Regulation stats will be lower than normal but if a guy wants to keep a steady score card, they are going to have to find a formula of holding the greens as much as they can.

Scrambling/Scrambling from the rough – Always a stat that needs to be considered in majors, especially with the small greens as even the eventual winner of the US Open will miss some greens from time to time this week. So, getting up and down soundly will be as key as ever, I have also included scrambling from the rough as the thickness of the rough will play a massive part this week.

Bogey Avoidance – Again, like the above stat, Bogey Avoidance needs to be factored in. Players will play on some really tough holes this week where Par and even sometimes Bogey will be a great score, so mentally and physically they will have to stay patient and plod around the course when they need to.

Recent form/major form – Every player looks forward to the majors and everyone loves to be playing well entering a major week. But we have seen trends in past US Opens where recent form is vital. Your T2G game will always be magnified at these types of courses.

Par 3 scoring – I have already gone into great detail above regarding the 5 Par 3s on the North Course this week, these holes will make up 20 out of the 72 holes that the guys who make the cut will play, they will have to find the recipe to get through them as there will be no hiding when they face the 11th this week!

The Field

156 guys will tee it up in the 3rd major of the season and as you can imagine, the best of the best are here and the top end of the market looks as strong as it’s ever been, full of bundles of talent and recent form.

It’s a major championship and we have all the big dogs here this week, all of the top 10 in the official world golf rankings flock to Los Angeles to try their luck at winning America’s national open.

Bet365 in their opening outright market that pays 5 places in the each way betting have made World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler their favourite for the U.S Open at 15/2. He has teed it up 13 times this season and has finished in the top 10 ten times, including 4 wins and the last 3 tournaments he has played he has come inside the top 5. Scheffler has been woeful with the putter but has been mountains above the rest of the fields with his Tee2Green game. He has to be there again come the end of this week and if the putter gets even an ounce better he will for sure win this.

The Masters champion from this year and the 2021 US Open champion Jon Rahm is 2nd favourite at 9/1. Like Scottie, he has won 4 times this year on what has been an unbelievable year to challenge for World Number 1 spot. People would say that his accuracy with the driver will come under scrutiny this week, however he has demonstrated on more than one occasion that he can rise to any event when required to, as long as his temperament is kept in check.

Rory McIlroy and US PGA Champion from 2023 Brooks Koepka are then tied for 3rd favourites at 11/1. Rory’s form of late has been shaky and his performances in the first two majors of the year have been sub standard for sure. He was in a great position going into Sunday last week at the Canadian Open but failed to really get going. He has however spoke very highly about LACC and if it all comes together then he could well win the U.S Open again as when he fires he really has no weakness.

Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele then come in at 16/1 before a big jump up to 25/1 in the market where we find 4 players. These 3 are all very much ball strikers and pure hitters of the golf ball. Hovland gets the preference for me from the group, he loves the big stage as seen at both major so far in 2023. He drives it long and straight, and his irons are accurate as anything. He does struggle with his chipping; however I think the thicker stuff may help that here this week to give him a bit of a cushion behind the ball when hitting chips around these greens.

Bigger odds down the board that jump out at me are as follows; 25/1 Collin Morikawa, 33/1 Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood 50/1 and Adam Scott at 70/1. These may not make my line-up for the week, but the starting odds are nice numbers.

My US Open selections

5 each way selections for you all again this week, all in the each way extra 8 places market on Bet365. Let’s keep the good run going! Have a good week all!

Viktor Hovland: 18/1
US Open Form – MC-WD-13-12
Recent Form – 1-16-2-43-7

We are starting our card off with a winner on his last start in Viktor Hovland, his first on US soil on the PGA Tour which came at the Memorial Tournament on a tough layout. This guy is turning into a model of consistency. 16 starts on the PGA Tour this season, all 16 cuts made, 7 top 10s, 1 2nd place finish and then the 1 win... pretty good right? He is also not afraid of the biggest of stages, he has had a top 10 at the Masters, the Players Championship and the PGA Championship this year, coming mightily close at the latter of the 3.

He hits the ball a mile and is deadly accurate in doing so (6th on Tour for Total Driving – Accuracy + Distance). 7th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 11th Tee2Green, 10th Approach I could go on forever about how his approach play is ideal for this golf course and his high ball flight will come in handy for sure with these dry and firm green surfaces. His chipping and putting have come under scrutiny in the past, but I am willing to bypass that this week. A guy that challenges so often on tough golf courses must be finding a formula to get around the green handily! As I’ve already said above, I feel like the thicker grass will indeed aid his chipping this week. He is a major champ in the making this one!

Xander Schauffele: 20/1
US Open Form – 14-7-5-3-6-5
Recent Form – 24-18-2-4-4

Xander again in a Major… I know, but I promise he is due a big performance in one of these and all the stats point towards this week! As you can see above, he has never finished lower than 14th at a US Open, making every cut and his year has been ultra consistent too, making all 15 cuts with 8 top 10 finishes and 1 runner up. He has been mighty close to that win and had some shades of bad luck along the way. 6th for Strokes Gained Approach this season and 12th for putting is a massive bonus around LACC and tying that in with a ranking of 12th for Greens in Regulation and 1st for approaches from 150-175 yards could be vital as a great number of the field will fall this week. Keep the faith in Xander!

Hideki Matsuyama: 40/1
US Open Form – 4-26-17-21-16-2-MC-18-35-10
Recent Form – 16-29-23-16-15-35

We move onto the 2021 Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama. If the boy is fit and well then he has to contend come Sunday this week. His powers come with the long irons and around the greens, exactly what is needed for the long hole layouts here and the gnarly rough around these greens. 30th for approach this season, top 30 for every approach stat from 50-200 yards and 8th for Strokes Gained Around the Greens are impressive numbers. He has not set the world alight lately but has been a consistent cut maker which is what is needed to give yourself a chance over the weekend! I am more than happy to take 33/1 on him this week.

Bryson DeChambeau: 40/1
US Open Form – 56-26-1-35-25-MC-15-MC
Recent LIV Form – 9-4*-22-26-16

I know what you are all thinking, oh my he’s tipping a LIV golfer etc. etc... Yes, I know I am but I really think Bryson is now on an upward curve in terms of his performances. He has again gone through some massive changes physically in the last 12 months, losing a lot of weight but seemingly keeping his power off the tee. A 4th place finish at the PGA Championship is where I want to focus, however. He was in the top 10 for all Strokes Gained categories from Tee2Green that week with his driving being unbelievably long and accurate at the same time. He loves to wield the putter too on quick greens, so I have no doubt that the former US Open champion can make a bold show here at a massive price by his standards.

Adam Hadwin: 250/1
US Open Form – 7-40-54-MC-60-38
Recent Form – 12-MC-40-34-2

My outsider of the week is typically one that I feel should be shorter in the market, however he obviously finds himself down the market due to the quality of this Major field. Before anyone thinks about it, I am not just taking the guy because he stole the media’s attention from Taylor last week when he got rugby tackled by security when storming the 18th green to congratulate his fellow Canadian on his win!

7th in a US Open in 2022 at a bigger price in the market was a super impressive and he had more chances coming down the stretch to better his score. A 12th place in his home country last week would have surely boosted his confidence fcoming to LACC. For an outsider, Hadwin does not really do much wrong as he sits inside the top 80 for every Strokes Gained category possible. Highlights being his Driving Accuracy, Approach with his longer irons and then his putting. I feel like it would be daft not to delve into the outsiders on a Major week at least once and I feel like we will get a good run with Adam this week!