
UFC 292 Sterling vs. O'Malley Betting Tips: Back the underdog in this Boston headliner

Live from the TD Garden in Boston, UFC 292 offers fans an enthralling card with two title fights present - one of which sees bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling defend his crown at 135lbs against #2 contender Sean O'Malley.
This appears to be "Funk Master"'s last foray in the division, citing the difficulty in cutting weight, plus wanting to give teammate and fellow bantamweight contender Merab Dvalishvili his opportunity as reasons for vacating the division. Sterling, who is quite the reviled figure in the eyes of UFC fans, has been publicly critical about the organisation's forcefulness in issuing a quick turnaround of just 15 weeks between his last title defence against Henry Cejudo and this next challenge vs Sean O'Malley.
For meteoric star "Suga Sean" a win over the current champ would compliment his presence as one of the promotion's most bankable assets. His controversial split decision win over Petr Yan at UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi last October earned him the position of number one contender in the bantamweight rankings and catapulted him into a shot at gold. It's sink or swim time for O'Malley, and as Aljamain Sterling has proven with his nine consecutive wins and four title defences since that knockout by Marlon Moraes, if he's going to be the best he's going to have to beat the best.
UFC 292 Sterling vs O'Malley Tips
If you're familiar with our UFC coverage, you'll know that we often take a liking to the underdogs in these main event match ups. MMA is an unpredictable sport, and there is usually quite a lot of value to be had when siding against the betting favourite. UFC 292 is set to be no exception as we build a case for the Suga Sean train to roll right through the Aljo station.
This doesn't come without its precautions though, the prediction of O'Malley to beat Sterling conjuring a head-heart type internal conflict in declaring a winner. However, there's strong reasoning behind our decision.
Aljamain no doubt has the safer route to victory, implementing his superior wrestling in the close-quarter exchanges and decompressing any success O'Malley might be having through resourceful kicks and the champ's excellent maintenance of control inside the octagon.
That being said, there is a vulnerability to Sterling that we've seen exposed numerous times but never truly capitalised on. Petr Yan had opportunities to exploit during his two meetings with the New Yorker but the Russian's fighting style resulted in him continuously planning to execute the perfect attack rather than introducing some disarray into proceedings.
O'Malley is more on the chaotic side, or at least has that to his game. With the coaching of Tim Welch, Sean is able to pair that innate "flow state" ability with the more measured aspects of a well-organised game plan.
In his fight with Yan, there were two big calls from his corner man mid-rounds - to step low and throw the overhand left when his counterpart was in southpaw and to bring his knee down the middle when Yan dropped his chin. Both were incredibly effective in allowing O'Malley to inflict serious damage on his opponent and produce memorable moments that may have swayed the judges' decisions on the night.
It's this pure striking that will gain him the win if we are to hear "and new" on the night. And considering how the division's supposed leading striker in Yan was outfought by the contender almost a year ago, a moment of imperfection can be the difference between Sterling's control and an O'Malley knockout.
With that, we're tipping O'Malley to lift the strap following a TKO stoppage or highlight reel knockout of Aljamain Sterling. This price is around the 7/2 mark with other bookmakers, but has been kindly boosted to 4/1 by Paddy Power and Betfair.
You'd think that somebody who was sensationally KO'd in the way Aljo was by Marlon Moraes, would go about ensuring that they aren't exposed to that same level of devastation again.
That doesn't seem to be the case with Sterling, who consistently lowers his chin in close combat and whose takedown attempts leave him exposed more than you'd expect from a UFC champion.
Given the fact that O'Malley is typically a long, rangy striker but their similar reach means Suga won't be afforded those same advantages here, we could see Sterling deluded into a false sense of security.
Sean picked Yan apart at range and in tight areas, who was successful against the current champion, and if two plus two equals four, then O'Malley is about to turn up the heat and pose some serious problems to the bantamweight champion.
The same could of course be said for the challenger, whose only top-15 win came at UFC 280 over Petr Yan, and who has been fed favourable striking opponents with lesser grappling skills than those of Sterling.
That being said, O'Malley has proven the doubters wrong once before and can thwart the shoddy takedown accuracy of Aljo to limit the number of wrestling exchanges this fight will have, keeping things on the feet which is exactly where he wants them.
Suga Sean has the knockout power to stop this contest and with him claiming a Fight of the Night performance bonus in seven of his last eight bouts, it all but confirms we're set for more fireworks this weekend.

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