UFC 272 Odds: We've got Gamebred to win by KO as one of our five picks
UFC272 takes places this weekend and we've asked our in-house grappler Ste Mcquillan to preview it and pick out five tips for the big fights.
UFC 272 will see a massive grudge match between two former training partners Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal as the main event and it’s fair to say, it’s a fight that should live up to the massive hype building around it. The main card also hosts some other big names such as Rafael dos Anjos fighting Renato Moicano, who has stepped in on 5 days notice, Edson Barboza faces the up and coming Bryce Mitchell, Kevin Holland attempts to get back in the win column against Alex Oliveira and Sergey Spivak and Greg Hardy face off in what should be an absolute slugfest in the heavyweight division.
You know the drill at this point, I'll talk through the main card and then any other value picks I see throughout the whole event. Ok, lets kick off with the main event.
UFC 272 Tips
Colby “Chaos” Covington and Jorge Masvidal have been the centre of attention in the UFC media recently purely because of their pure hatred for each other. I’ll give them credit, they’re doing a great job at hyping up the fight, as Masvidal normally does, and aside from just trying to sell the fight, I do think these two genuinely don’t like each other which should make for a stunning fight.
Colby comes in as a very strong 2/7 favourite for the fight and on the other side of the coin, Masvidal is a 3/1 underdog, I think this is a fair representation of the two fighters, Colby has cemented his status as one of the top fighters in the UFC and Masvidal has lost his last two fights. Granted Masvidal’s last two fights have been against the current champions Kamaru Usman and the first one was on short notice, I do think that the bookmakers are right to have Colby at such a short price.
Colby has shown time and time again that maybe in another timeline that doesn’t have Kamaru Usman in it, he would be the champ. But unfortunately for him, Usman has beat both of these main event fighters twice. I think it’s clear that Colby is the better fighter out of the two but write off Masvidal at your own peril. Jorge has continued to prove his doubters wrong and his streak in 2019 shows just how capable of a fighter he is. 46% of Gamebred’s wins have come via KO/TKO which I think personally, is the only way he wins this fight. Colby only has one decision loss on his record which was his last fight against Usman, a fight which was still close despite the knockdowns from Kamaru.
Colby has said that he wants to get into a war and “make him (Masvidal) tap out from taking too much pain”. If Covington decides to trade with Masvidal it could be a rough game for him to play. Darren Till was a great example for this, he was completely in control of the fight but became too comfortable in the striking department against Jorge, Till then ended up getting knocked completely unconscious in one of the more brutal knockouts that year. Now, I’m not saying I expect Colby to get knocked out, I’m just saying, it seems like he’s going to play a dangerous game against Masvidal and it might not work out for him. Colby should utilise his wrestling and if he does he will get an easy decision win, but I don’t think he will, which is why I’ll be going for the Masvidal knockout at a fairly attractive price of 4/1 with Paddy Power.
I think the bad blood between these two is going to result in some violence and probably result in a full-on striking match, one that I think Jorge will end up winning. The bookmakers are pretty split on this fight going the distance, it’s 5/6 either way and more reasons I’ve mentioned earlier, I think the stoppage will come in the form of a Masvidal KO/TKO. One thing’s for sure, this should be a violent fight with the history between the two.
This is a tough one to analyse. Renato Moicano has stepped in right at the end to fight RDA as Rafael Fiziev has caught COVID and been forced to withdraw from the fight, so this fight really is hard to predict. You’d have to favour Rafael dos Anjos coming into the fight as he’s had a full camp to prepare, and the bookmakers seem to think this way as well. Dos Anjos is the 8/15 betting favourite and I think that purely is because he’s had more time to prepare. In terms of who the better fighter is currently, I’d have to say it’s Renato.
Rafael dos Anjos last fought in 2020 where he had a decision win against Paul Felder, and whilst that was a convincing win, RDA’s recent performances have not been convincing. In his last six fights he only has two wins, those being against Felder and Kevin Lee, on the other hand, Moicano is fresh off a win from the 12th of February and has won three of his last four fights. Personally, I think RDA is close to being finished in the UFC, he just isn’t the same fighter he used to be. In fact, before this fight with Moicano was confirmed, he was coming in as a 3/1 underdog against Fiziev so he can probably count himself lucky that he’s got an opponent that is not as good as him.
Unfortunately, with this fight being fairly new there aren't any markets available for the fight other than the outright winner, where I think Moicano is the value bet. Yes he may not be well prepared for this fight but I just do not believe in RDA’s ability anymore. I think 6/4 is a great price for the underdog and definitely worth a punt, if the odds for Renato to win by decision are also decent I’d be going for that as well.
Next up is Edson Barboza, the man who is rarely involved in a dull fight. Yes, he may be getting on a bit at the age of 36 but with two wins in his last three fights, he’s still looking like a solid fighter. However, he is against a fighter coming in with a lot of hype, Bryce Mitchell.
This fight is fairly tough to call, on one hand, you have an up-and-coming youngster who is undefeated at the pro level and on the other hand, you have an MMA veteran with 32 bouts and 22 wins to his name. This fight almost reminds me of when Chase Hooper was coming through in the UFC. Granted Chase was a lot younger than Bryce but the premise is very similar. Chase was rushed straight into fighting Alex Caceres and it did not work out for him, the veteran showed all sorts that Hooper hadn’t experienced and ultimately got the decision win.
I do think this fight is going to be probably the most even fight on the card, I can see multiple ways of either fighter winning or losing, the pressure could get to Bryce and Barboza could bring him into deep waters, or Mitchell could show his impressive ground game and get another submission win. What I am confident in is saying that this fight will not go the distance. I think either fighter has the potential to finish this fight meaning my best bet for this fight would be the fight to not go the distance. It’s a short price at 8/13 but it’s sure to bump up any acca if you’re placing multiples for this card.
Kevin Holland has got to be one of the strangest fighters around. Constantly talking in the cage, always trying new things, incredibly unorthodox, and all-around a pretty solid fighter despite his last two fights that have resulted in a loss. He’s looking to get back to winning ways against the out-of-form Alex Oliveira who has lost his last three fights in the UFC and only won two of his last eight.
This should in my opinion be an easy fight for Kevin Holland and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished him fairly quickly. Considering Trailblazer is a 2/7 favourite for the fight it’s not wise backing against him. To squeeze a bit of value out of him I’d be going for Holland via TKO/KO at 6/5. Now Cowboy Oliveira has only been KOd once in his career, but don’t let that put you off backing the finish for Holland. Of Holland’s 21 wins, 12 have come by way of knockout which is more than double any other method he has recorded. I actually think the 6/5 is a very generous price for the knockout, I don’t see how Alex Oliveira gets anything done in this fight, he’s looked completely out of sorts in his last three fights and I think Kevin Holland has all the answers. The only risk would be Holland going for a submission but I don’t think he’d be wanting this fight to go to the ground at all. Hell, if you’re feeling extra risky, it’s 16/5 for a first-round stoppage for Holland.
This is a fight that is almost certain to not go the distance. To be more specific it’s 4/11 to not go the distance which I honestly think does not lose, but we need something a bit juicier here and that’s why total rounds under 1.5 looks to be a good bet in my eyes.
Greg Hardy got finished in his last fight in the first round and in Spivak’s last fight he got finished in the first round. This fight could be two heavyweights coming out with a point to prove and both throwing it all at each other. Spivak has finished 11 of his 13 fights in his career and has been KOd twice and Greg Hardy has finished 6 of his 7 wins and been KOd twice in his career.
I just don’t see a world where this goes on for very long and Greg Hardy normally comes out swinging. I wish I could say more on this fight but when you’ve got two massive heavyweights fighting each other, the less said the better really.
If you want to stick these five selections into an acca, you can load the betlsip directly using the link below, which pays a little under 89/1.
Good luck and enjoy the fights.