The Open Betting Tips: Scheffler is the man to beat at St. Andrews

Just three months following Scottie Scheffler’s success at Augusta, we arrive at St Andrews for The Open Championship, our final major of the year and are faced with the sad prospect of another nine months before we see these great, prestigious tournaments on our TV screens again.

None are older or arguably more prestigious than this event, founded in 1860 and this year’s renewal will be one of milestones. Not only is it the 150th anniversary of The Open Championship but also the 30th time the event will be hosted at the ‘Home of Golf’, St Andrews’ Old Course.

This course first hosted the event in 1873, in which the event was played over just two rounds and where rounds of 91 & 88 were enough to see Tom Kidd pick up the title (and the reputed £11 winner’s prize). We last saw it staged here in 2015, where Zach Johnson overcame Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman in a playoff. Oosthuizen himself a previous St Andrews Open Championship winner in 2010. 

Many of the game’s greats have tasted Open Championship success here; from the great Bobby Jones who won the event as an amateur in 1927, to Jack Nicklaus (1970, 1978) and Tiger Woods (2000, 2005) who are both two time major champions here at St Andrews. Names like Bobby Locke, Sam Snead, Seve Ballesteros and Nick Faldo enhancing an iconic winner’s list here.

Last year’s Open Championship took place at Royal St George’s and saw Collin Morikawa win the event on his first attempt, winning by two-shots over 2017 Open Champion, Jordan Spieth. This representing the return of the event following the 2020 version being cancelled because of the covid pandemic. 

Who will lift the Claret Jug this week and take home the record $2.5million winner’s prize in the process?

The Course

St Andrews Links is said to be one of the oldest golf courses in the world, with records showing people played the game here as far back as the mid-1500s and is the epitome of classic links golf.

An exposed course designed by the elements, with rolling, undulating and firm (weather permitting) fairways built aside the sea on the east-coast of Scotland. Devilishly penal pot-bunkers are abound, with thick fescue rough for the most wayward of tee-shots and huge double greens, which are severely undulating and many two-tiered, with run-off areas/false fronts aplenty. 

This year it will play to 7313 yards and is a par 72, a mere 16 yards longer than in 2015. Uncommonly, the course possesses just two par 3s and par 5s apiece, with fourteen par 4s. 

Iconic holes are found throughout, starting with the opener, a short par 4 with a huge, wide fairway and the Swilcan Burn running right around the hole and protecting the front of the green. Finishing with the tough 495 yard par 4 17th, where you must hit your tee-shot over the corner of the Old Course Hotel to a narrowing fairway and then are faced with the unenviable task of finding the shallow, undulating 17th green, with a huge bunker forward and out-of-bounds back. It will provide a stern and nervy test to anyone in contention down the stretch on Sunday. 

We finish with the potentially drivable par 4 18th, named after Old Tom Morris. The hole has a wide and heavily undulating fairway, though many will try to drive it up to the green, that slopes severely from back to front and anything without the legs to stay up onto the green will find the ‘Valley of Sin’ at the front of the green, leaving a tough up and down and turning a birdie, maybe even eagle chance into a potential bogey.

Over the last 30 or so years, this venue has consistently produced some of the lowest scoring Open Championships. Nick Faldo’s -18 in 1990 and Tiger Woods’ -19 in 2000 rank inside the top 5 lowest scoring Opens, with Tiger’s other win in 2005 on -14, Louis Oosthuizen’s -16 in 2010 and Zach Johnson’s -15 in 2015 also rank amongst some of the lower scoring renewals.

This down to a combination of the forgiving nature of the course tee-to-green, with the fairways and greens amongst some of the largest and easiest to hit you’ll find anywhere on tour, along with conditions not playing their part. If the wind doesn’t blow and rain softens the course, which often happens here, you have a better chance of finding the right spots on these greens to either give you better birdie chances or an easier two-putt.

Though we do see in the 1995 version, which was won by John Daly on -6, what the course can do if the elements allow so. If the wind blows and we have dry conditions, the course will play firm and holding these greens or finding the right spot on them will become ever difficult.

Finding the greens is both a must and only half the battle, as for what the course lacks on difficulty in finding greens and fairways, it makes up for in both the ability to scramble and putting average. With averages for both some of the most difficult of any course on either tour. This has put huge importance on a strong short-game around here.

Back in 2010, Louis Oosthuizen strolled to a seven-shot victory, not much of a surprise that he did everything well. His short-game a key part of this, as he ranked 1st in putting average and 5th around-the-greens. In addition to this, runner-up Lee Westwood ranked 1st in scrambling and 3rd place finisher, Henrik Stenson, ranked 3rd. 

A similar story in 2015, as winner Zach Johnson ranked 2nd in scrambling and 8th in putting, whilst Leishman and Oosthuizen, who both lost in the playoff to Johnson ranked 3rd and 16th in scrambling and 12th and 24th in putting respectively. Further down the leaderboard we find Jason Day and Jordan Spieth, finishing off a leaderboard full of strong short-game players. 

In addition to this, approach play will be key on these huge greens, more so than simple ability to find the greens and because of the wide open fairways here, you always fancy bigger hitters to go well, though the length of the holes shouldn’t necessarily warn you off shorter hitters. With 3-putt avoidance once again looking like an important stat on these greens.

Key stats: SG: Around-the-Greens/Scrambling/SG:Putting/SG: Approach

Secondary stats: Driving Distance/3-putt avoidance

Correlating Courses/Events

There’s no real replacement for links golf, though there are some events which can offer clues on both sides of the Atlantic.

The Honda Classic at PGA National is an exposed, often wind affected course where a good short-game can take you a long way. We’ve seen past champions like Rory McIlroy, Padraig Harrington and Ernie Els also taste Open Championship success. With strong links performers like Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood also possessing good records there.

Further to this, any form in Texas should be considered, as the wind often blows there. The two more exposed setups would be the Texas Open at TPC San Antonio and the Houston Open at either venue.

In addition, consider any coastal form at the likes of Pebble Beach, the Sony Open at Waialae and RSM Classic at the Sea Island Resort. With both last year’s PGA Championship host, Kiawah Island and the host of The Northern Trust amongst many other PGA Tour playoff events, Liberty National, both exposed, links like setups situated on the coast.

From a DP World Tour point of view we have the Alfred Dunhill Links, played over three courses, though two of rounds played right here at the Old Course, though usually an easier test than what would be on show in an Open Championship.

We also have previous Scottish Opens, typically played on links courses and some versions of the Irish Open, namely 2017, 2018 and 2019 as they took place on links courses.

Form in the Middle East is often a plus, particularly in the Qatar Masters, Abu Dhabi Championship and Saudi International. All exposed courses that are usually at the mercy of the weather.

Whilst back on mainland Europe we can look towards the Dutch Open, particularly the last two years played at the linksy Bernardus Golf and events like the Czech and Portugal Masters are also played on exposed, wind-affected courses.

The Weather

The weather forecast has changed hugely over the last 24 hours or so, which tells you just how difficult it is to look at it this far in advance and anything should be taken with a pinch of salt.

After initially forecasting a dry, windy week, it now looks as though there may be a few spots of rain about on the Wednesday before the start and carrying over into Thursday and Friday, though not too severe. As for the wind Thursday and Sunday look to possess a moderate breeze of between 8-14mph, with Friday and particularly Saturday looking the toughest days with winds of up to 21mph and gusts of around 30mph. 

All subject to change, of course but it would be sensible to plan for some strong winds at some point in the week.

The Field

The big story of the field is the return of Tiger Woods, who missed the US Open to ready himself for this visit to one of his favourite places and a course in which he has such a wonderful history. 

Xander Schauffele comes into this with the hottest form in the field, winning his latest two starts at the Travelers Championship and then doubling up last week at the Scottish Open, joined by a typically high class field.

The final spots in the event punched by Jamie Donaldson, Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu, as the highest finishing players in the Scottish Open not otherwise exempt, as well as Trey Mullinax who won the Barbasol Championship over in Kentucky yesterday evening.

Selections

Rory McIlroy heads the market at 11/1 and is followed by the man of the moment, Xander Schauffele at 14s, both with clear chances. Though I’m going to pass both by and start with the man who kicked off this year’s majors in style, by earning that breakthrough victory at Augusta National in The Masters all the way back in April, Scottie Scheffler.

Since that win at Augusta, which was Scheffler’s 4th in an electric year so far, that has seen him also pick up titles in Phoenix, at Bay Hill in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and in the WGC-Matchplay, he has maintained a strong level of form.

Just three starts ago he produced an excellent final round to finish 2nd to Matthew Fitzpatrick in the US Open and just two starts prior to that finished 2nd in the Charles Schwab Challenge, with three other top 20s to boot. The two blots on the record come courtesy of a MC at the PGA Championship, forgiven as he was on the wrong side of a draw bias and though he missed the cut last week in the Scottish Open he struck the ball well in both rounds, putted well in round 2 and was ultimately let down by an off week around-the-greens.

This rare for a player who ranks 20th on tour this season around-the-greens on the PGA Tour, part of a strong tee-to-green game which sees him ranked 7th, looking particularly strong in approach, also ranking 7th. The putter has gone a little cold since The Masters, though has shown in both of those recent 2nd place finishes that he only needs to make moderate gains on the greens to contend, such is his quality tee-to-green and as one of the biggest hitters on tour, ranking 18th in driving distance, we find a player who looks ideally suited to the Old Course this week.

We saw last year how well his game translates to links golf, as he finished 8th at Royal St Georges in his first Open Championship appearance. We find further encouragement in a 12th place finish in the Scottish Open last year and an 8th place finish at Kiawah Island in last year’s PGA Championship shows further his suitability to this type of golf. 

Growing up and still living in Texas, Scheffler plays the wind well, so will not mind if the conditions get testing this week and providing he doesn’t end up on the wrong side of any potential draw bias, I just can’t see him not being in the mix come late Sunday afternoon.

Despite a mediocre record in the event to date, Cameron Smith looks every bit an Open Champion in waiting, possessing a short-game to rival most on tour. This year he’s been able to combine that with elite approach play which has propelled him to his best year as a pro and he can add to that with the biggest win of all this week, by becoming Open Champion. 

Smith’s top result of the year came back at TPC Sawgrass in THE PLAYERS Championship in March, in a tough weather-affected edition. He followed that with a 3rd place finish at The Masters, challenging Scottie Scheffler throughout, also worth noting how Augusta and Open Championships can often correlate nicely with each other, as events that are quite generous off-the-tee and in which a high class short-game is a necessity to win. 

Since then, his form hasn’t quite been up to the same high standard, though there has still been some strong performances. This on show in 13th place finishes at both the Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship, with a 10th place finish last week in Scotland his best result since the 3rd in The Masters.

He’d gone off the boil with the putter, by his standards, though fired back into action last week as he ranked 4th in the field at the Renaissance Club and ranks 16th for the season, as well as 11th in 3-putt avoidance. Also ranking 32nd around-the-green, showing that all round quality short-game he possesses.

There has been a noticeable drop off in his approach play over his last couple of starts, though his ranking of 5th for the season shows the quality of which he’s been producing in this area this season and he did sign off with his best approach performance of the week in round 4 at the Scottish Open, something I’m hoping he can continue into this week.

The driver is his weakness and he ranks outside the top 125 on tour off-the-te. Though as a player who lacks in accuracy but has decent enough length, he should be benefited by the Old Course’s very generous fairways this week.

The generosity off-the-tee here is what makes Smith so appealing and this looks the ideal place for him to improve on his underwhelming record in the event. Where he recorded a best of 20th in 2019 at Royal Portrush. His strong performance last week shows what he can do around a links setup and he’ll have no trouble in the wind, as he’s an excellent wind player, something we saw when he won in Hawaii in 2020 and he’s also recorded a top 10 in Texas.

Smith and Scheffler were the form players of the year heading into Augusta, both suffering different fates there and their contrasting form since can probably be put down to that. Though Smith has continued to bubble and coming in here off a strong performance last week, I feel the two could once again be the ones to beat this week.

I really felt this year was going to be a huge one for Patrick Cantlay. Coming into 2022 as arguably the form player following a strong finish to 2021, in which he finished as the FedEx Cup champion, showing the kind of steel and determination in victories at the Memorial Tournament and BMW Championship that had previously been missing for the quiet Californian, it looked like a major breakthrough would be the next step this year. 

That hasn’t quite transpired, following a strong start to the year and a 14th place finish in the US Open as his best major finish of the year, having finished 33rd in The Masters and missed the cut in the PGA Championship. Though there’s been enough signs of late, where Cantlay has recorded finishes of 3rd in the Memorial Tournament, that 14th in the US Open, 13th in the Travelers Championship and 4th in last week’s Scottish Open in his last four starts, that suggest maybe that major breakthrough will come this week, in the final one of the year.

Every part of his game fired last week, with the putter looking particularly strong, as he ranked 9th in the field, though it was noticeable how much he found with his irons over the weekend, as he ranked 12th in round three and 5th in round four in approach. Momentum I’m hoping he’ll carry over into this week.

This all-round quality has been the story of Cantlay over recent starts and the reason for a consistently strong run of results. He’s gained strokes in all areas across those four events, excluding an off week with the irons at the US Open. 

The short-game is where he’s excelled most, ranking 20th in putting, 21st in scrambling and 40th around-the-greens. Whilst he’s also driven it well for most of the year, ranking 23rd off-the-tee, possessing plenty of power.

This, along with the more consistent approach play makes Cantlay a great fit for The Open, St Andrews in particular and he can enhance a solid enough record in the championship, in which he has a best of 12th at Carnoustie in 2018, this week. 

After a slow start to the year Tony Finau has started to find his feet over recent months and looks set to add to an already excellent record in the Open Championship this week.

That slow start to the year saw Finau miss three cuts in his first 10 events and finish no better than 18th, which came in the small field Tournament of Champions. 

He’d actually been hitting the ball well during that period but it’s been finally getting the short-game firing over the last couple of months that has brought about a much improved run of form for the likeable American. 

This improvement came in the Mexico Open at the beginning of May, that saw Finau finish 2nd to Jon Rahm and rank 5th in the field around-the-greens. That was the first time in 8 events that he had gained strokes around-the-greens and he has done so in every event since. 

The putter failed to fire that week but again, is in much better shape generally than the start of the year, as he’s gained strokes on the greens in 6 of his last 9 starts. 

This short-game improvement was bound to bring about better results, which also includes a 2nd place finish in the Canadian Open and 4th at the Charles Schwab in recent starts, for a player who hits the ball as well as most. Ranking 15th in approach and 19th off-the-tee on tour this season. Ignoring an off week with the driver in the US Open and with the irons at the Wells Fargo he’s gained in virtually every start over the last two months and combined with that improved play around-the-greens, is playing better golf tee-to-green than most on tour.

This strong tee-to-green game is one Finau has been able to use to amass a superb Open Championship record, where he’s finished 18th, 27th, 9th, 3rd and 15th on just his 5 starts in the event.

We can find his suitability to links golf further by that victory in The Northern Trust last year, his first win in 5 years, coming at Liberty National. In addition to this he’s finished 2nd at Royal Greens in the Saudi International. With other bits of encouraging form dotted around such as 8th at Kiawah Island in last year’s PGA Championship, a 3rd place finish in the Texas Open and a solid record in the Alfred Dunhill Links, where he’s finished 10th and 14th. Though none of these ultimately compare to a true Open Championship links test, they do show how these exposed setups favour him.

Finau’s game is looking in top condition right now. With this translating to some strong recent form and possessing a consistently excellent record in The Open, he can add to those past strong performances this week.

My inclination was to ignore the LIV Golf recruits this week. Little competitive form to go off and the question of how much they actually care about playing golf anymore with the money already in the bank remains. Though in Patrick Reed we find someone who was showing some better form on the PGA Tour before defecting, has a decent record in The Open, thanks to possessing one of the best short-games around and most importantly of all, has the type of mentality that will not only be able to ignore the critics this week, but that will relish picking up a prestigious title when many are against him (even more so than usual).

Reed’s early year form was pretty forgettable, thanks to his long-game being largely non-existent. This turned around when he finished 26th in THE PLAYERS Championship, producing his best approach numbers of the year to that point and since then had started to find much better form across his ball-striking completely, with the driver starting to behave much better. Going from losing strokes heavily early in the season to gaining in four of his last seven starts and the losses become much smaller.

This enabled Reed to produce his best performance of the year, when 7th in the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he combined that improved ball-striking with his typically high class short-game. Though he did finish 3rd in the LIV Golf event in Portland, it’s hard to take that performance overly seriously, with the format and lack of stats available.

The high-class short-game has helped Reed put together a solid book of form in this oldest of major championships. With 10th, 12th and 28th place finishes to go with his 20th here at the Old Course in 2015. Further to this he’s a Masters winner, which typically bodes well and hailing from Texas is more than comfortable playing in the wind, indeed a 2nd place finish in the 2016 Texas Open alluding to this and he’s also gone well in the Honda Classic, finishing 7th in 2015.

He wouldn’t be the most popular winner, but this won’t bother him one bit, in fact it may inspire him. With a short-game that has been firing all year and a long-game which was showing significant improvement before he left for LIV Golf, this born winner can become a two-time major champion this week at St Andrews.