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Sony Open Betting Tips: Best bets from Hawaii

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Golf has this way of reminding you of its unpredictability just when you’re confident you’ve got it figured. Starting the final round with a six stroke lead and extending that on numerous occasions during the early part of Sunday’s final round, Collin Morikawa looked all set for a trouble-free victory at the Tournament of Champions. 

Even when Jon Rahm started to put some birdies together to reduce the gap to six, five, four shots, you would still have predicted with confidence that Morikawa would see the tournament through in relative ease, however the golfing gods had other plans.

After missing a trio of good chances around the turn from the type of distances that Morikawa had been sweeping up effortlessly for most of the week with the putter, the rest of his game started to fall apart; a few poor iron shots and duffed chips later and Morikawa had bogeyed three holes straight – his first bogeys of the week and on some of the easiest holes on the course. All happening whilst Rahm continued to take the course apart, racking up four birdies and an eagle on his back nine to ultimately run out a two-stroke winner over Morikawa, a player who he trailed by nine shots at one point during yesterday’s final round. 

A remarkable finish and one that may well take a while for Morikawa to get over, not the first time he’s struggled to get over the line recently after looking unbeatable in contention for much of the early part of his career.

Tournament History

On to this week and we complete our traditional two-event stop in Hawaii to start the year, with the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club.

Formerly the Hawaiian Open, this event - or a version of it at least – can be traced back to the 1920s, though in this form has been a regular on the PGA Tour since 1965 and has always taken place here at Waialae, making it one of the longest-running regular courses still in use on today’s schedule.

Prior to Russell Henley’s victory in 2013, Waialae had often provided a decent enough challenge for tour pros but his victory there with an impressive -24 started a barrage of continually low-scoring events; six of the following nine renewals since 2019 have been won in a score of -20 or lower, two of the other three on -17, with Cameron Smith’s -11 in tough, windy conditions in 2020 very much the outlier.

Justin Thomas broke the tournament record in 2017, shooting -27 on his way to a facile seven stroke victory. This just two years after Jimmy Walker won the second of his back-to-back titles here by an incredible nine shots, making him the latest of five players to have won this title twice – nobody ever managing to win the Sony for a third time.

Hideki Matsuyama is our reigning champion as he defeated Russell Henley in a playoff to take home the trophy last year, having both finished tied on -23 – producing a very un-Hideki like putting performance in the process.

He returns to defend this week in our first full field event of the year and along with the rest of those who played in the ToC last week, will be hoping to make that extra bit of sharpness gained at Kapalua, count against a host of players who haven’t played since the RSM Classic in November of last year; something which has typically been the case with eight of the last ten winners here having teed it up the week before – Cameron Smith in 2020 and Russell Henley in 2013 the exceptions.

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The Course

Waialae Country Club is a par 70 measuring 7044 yards; consisting of twelve par 4s, four par 3s and two par 5s; designed by Seth Raynor in the 1920s and updated by Tom Doak in 2016/17.

Everything about this flat, tree-lined course is simple enough if the wind doesn’t blow, without being thoughtlessly easy. The fairways are relatively tight and rank just above average on the PGA Tour over the last four years in driving accuracy percentage.

That is countered by it not being too penal should you miss the fairways; however this may be slightly different this year as the rough is up on previous years. 

This would put a bit more of a premium on hitting fairways if wanting to stick these sizable bermudagrass greens, which aren’t typically too difficult to putt on; though like the challenges posed around much of the course, it doesn’t put too much strain on the short-game should you miss, rating in the top 25% easiest courses to scramble around in recent years.

Scoring chances are plentiful; the two par 5s which close out each nine are reachable for all in the field, whilst the par 5s are very much there to be attacked, with just two above 470 yards; the par 3s offering up the biggest challenges, particularly if the wind plays its part.

Ultimately if you keep your ball in-play, avoiding the water on a handful of holes and not getting caught up in too many of the bunkers, you should be scoring well at Waialae.

The Stats

Virtually every winner here in recent years has enjoyed a hot week on the greens when winning. Hideki Matsuyama ranked 1st on the greens last year and the man he bested in the playoff, Russell Henley, ranked 3rd, both bursting clear of the field thanks in large to the strength of their putting; seven of the remaining top 10 ranking no worse than 25th on the greens. 

Kevin Na gained strokes on the greens in 2021 though excelled in approach, however if we go back to 2020 we find Cameron Smith strengthening the argument for a hot putting week - even in the contrasting conditions there – ranking 1st, whilst of the five winners from 2015-2019, nobody ranked worse than 6th on the greens.

In a tournament where greens are usually simple to find, it’s no surprise to see precision iron play also proving a key ingredient to contending. Russell Henley ranked 2nd in approach when runner-up last year whilst the 1st and 3rd ranked approach players, Lucas Glover and Michael Thompson both finished tied 5th.

As mentioned, Kevin Na was at his best in approach when winning in 2021, with the same being said about Cameron Smith’s closest challengers in 2020 and of the winners from 2015-2019, none of them ranked any worse than 11th in approach.

In addition to that there are substantially more iron shots around Waialae in that 150-175 yard range and whilst the driver hasn’t been a particularly strong guide to success in the Sony Open, I do want to place a little importance in driving accuracy due to that heightened difficulty of the rough for this year’s edition.

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Key Stats: SG: Putting (bermuda), SG: Approach, Proximity 150-175 yards

Secondary Stats: Driving Accuracy

Correlating Courses/Events

Many coastal, resort courses that are susceptible to the conditions correlate well with the Sony Open. I have whittled it down to the following four:

Wyndham Championship @ Sedgefield Country Club

Sedgefield is a typically classic, tree-lined Donald Ross design that ranks closely to Waialae in virtually every aspect; from difficulty in finding fairways/greens to how tough the greens are to putt on.

We have a bunch of rather familiar name to possess form across both courses: Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Na, Brandt Snedeker and Zach Johnson to name a just a handful; all players who usually turn up at these classic, shorter tree-lined courses. 

RBC Heritage @ Harbour Town Golf Links

Very much in that same mould is Harbour Town, host of the RBC Heritage. Tight and tree-lined, the course offers a similar challenge off the tee as Waialae, with further similarities found on the greens and with the fact it is situated by the coast.

Those similar form lines are found here, with Matt Kuchar a winner at both courses; Webb Simpson, Zach Johnson, Kevin Kisner and Brandt Snedeker very much representative of the type of players who regularly play well at Harbour Town.

World Wide Technology Championship @ El Camaleon 

El Camaleon is another tree-lined course that compares very closely to Waialae in all aspects of tee-to-green difficulty and has developed similarly strong form ties as the two events mentioned above. 

Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Russell Henley, Johnson Wagner and Mark Wilson provide a compelling list of players with correlating form, having all won both events over the course of the last fifteen years.

Barbasol Championship @ Keene Trace Golf Club

I’m going to go a little more left field with my final one and I feel there are some decent comparisons – both form wise and in terms of course stats – that lead me to think the Barbasol Championship can give us an insight into potential challengers this week. Despite being less penal off-the-tee, it rates closely to Waialae in driving accuracy percentages, GIR and scrambling.

Seamus Power was 3rd here in Hawaii last year and won the Barbasol in 2021. In addition to this James Hahn has top 5s in both, whilst Henrik Norlander and Adam Svensson possesses a top 10 across each.

The Weather

Conditions look kind for the most part this week. It’s set to be warm and dry across the four days and whilst the wind gets up a little more on Thursday and Sunday, it shouldn’t be anything that will trouble the players too much.

The Field

Korean phenom Tom Kim is the highest ranked player in the field this week at #14 in the world, followed closely by #15 – and new best-friend – Jordan Spieth; with Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman and Keegan Bradley giving us six players from inside the world’s top 25 teeing it up at Waialae. 

They in part make up the group of eighteen who stay on in Hawaii for another week following the ToC and are not only joined by all of those returning players who didn’t qualify for last week’s event, but also an exciting group of players from the Japanese Tour, including JGTO Order of Merit winner Kazuki Higa and former #1 amateurs Keita Nakajima and Taiga Semikawa.

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Sony Open Tips

Sungjae Im - each-way 8 places
14/1
Odds correct as of 2023-01-09 20:30 Odds subject to change.

Despite going without a victory, 2022 was a strong year for Sungjae, particularly in the latter part of the year. Following a poor run of form through the US Open, Scottish Open and Open Championship, he returned stateside and found some serious form.

Two runner-up finishes on the bounce in the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship were followed by strong performances in the FedEx Cup playoffs, culminating in a 2nd place finish at the 2021/22 season ending Tour Championship.

He maintained solid form in the wraparound season, finishing 7th when defending champion in the Shriners and then producing solid performances in the no-cut ZOZO Championship and CJ Cup, before finishing 8th in the Hero World Challenge to sign off his year.

Im finished 13th last week at the Tournament of Champions where he was one of the best ball-strikers in the field but uncharacteristically struggled on and around the greens, areas which are usually a strength as part of his strong all-round game, where we saw him rank 12th around-the-greens and 39th in putting on the PGA Tour last season; an ideal compliment to his long game with rankings of 8th off-the-tee and 45th in approach last season; a player of little weakness. 

Combined with his accuracy with the driver, this is the type of course that an in-form Im usually plays well on, which we saw on his first two visits in 2019 and 2020, where he finished 16th and 21st respectively. He’s been a little more underwhelming on his two most recent visits, recording a finish of 56th and a missed cut, though with strong form at the Wyndham where he’s finishes 2nd and hit the top 10 on three of four attempts, as well as some solid form at the RBC Heritage, I’m convinced of his potential to win here.

The fact he played last week is an obvious positive in terms of that standout winners trend and with more intense focus inevitably on his countryman, if he can rediscover his short game best, he’d look the man they all have to beat this week.

Kyoung-hoon Lee - each-way 8 places
35/1
Odds correct as of 2023-01-09 20:35 Odds subject to change.

I’m going to stay in Korea and with players who teed it up at Kapalua with KH Lee. He looked strong across the board last week and can improve on a record in the Sony Open that has improved over the last couple of years.

Lee enjoyed another good year on the PGA Tour in 2022 as he won the AT & T Byron Nelson for the second year in succession, once again taking the scalp of one of the games major stars in Jordan Spieth, one of many stellar names on that leaderboard last year.

His form was a little in-and-out following that but he once again signalled his ability to perform against the game’s best players as he recorded two further impressive top 5s, finishing 5th in the second event of the playoffs – the BMW Championship – before finishing 3rd in the CJ Cup on his second to last start of 2022.

Lee finished 7th in the Tournament of Champions last week, never shooting worse than -4 in any one round and leading the field in greens hit, complimenting it with a particularly strong putting performance, ranking 7th but also looked on song around the greens and in approach.

It was good to see the putter still firing there, but perhaps more important was the approach performance, an area in which he looked in fine form at the end of last year and at this early point of the season ranks 24th in, as well as a super encouraging 9th in proximity from 150-175 yards.

A repeat of this level of iron play, along with continued form with the putter can see him improve on his record here – where he’s finished 18th and 49th in the last two years after missing the cut on his first two tries – with that proven ability he’s shown to win low scoring events in the Byron Nelson, he can add a third PGA Tour title this week.

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JT Poston - each-way 8 places
55/1
Odds correct as of 2023-01-09 20:35 Odds subject to change.

Two more selections who played last week at Kapalua, starting with JT Poston. For all he hasn’t quite taken off at Waialae in five previous visits he has a strong record at correlating courses and typically at his best with the putter, he can follow on from a promising 21st place finish last week to put up a good showing here.

Poston became a two-time PGA Tour winner last year as he picked up the John Deere Classic in impressive fashion in July, three years after his breakthrough win at the Wyndham Championship.

That came directly following a 2nd place finish in the Travelers Championship, with signs as early as his 3rd place finish in the RBC Heritage in April and 9th in the Wells Fargo in May that he was close to adding to that one title.

He maintained form for the remainder of the year following his success in the John Deere, hitting the top 25 six times in his final ten events of 2022.

Poston was looking good in most areas across this run of form though particularly excelled in approach and on the greens, gaining strokes in fifteen of his last eighteen starts in approach and whilst the putter tailed off in his last few starts of 2022, he ranked top 50 in putting for the fourth season in succession.

He showed somewhat of a return to putting form last week, ranking 19th in the field though it was in the ball-striking department that he looked most comfortable, looking particularly good in approach after round one. 

I’m confident he can continue that form with the putter this week on bermudagrass greens he usually putts well and here particularly has looked good on the greens more often than not. 

This hasn’t translated to a spectacular record in the event, with a best of 20th in 2019 and two missed cuts from five. Though I take huge encouragement from an excellent book of correlating form, that victory at the Wyndham in 2019 the obvious one but he’s also finished 2nd and 5th in the Barbasol; 3rd , 6th and 8th in the RBC Heritage and with a couple of top 25s at El Camaleon to boot, this is a place at which I’m convinced Poston has a much better performance in him; hopefully he can produce it this week.

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Adam Svensson - each-way 8 places
75/1
Odds correct as of 2023-01-09 20:40 Odds subject to change.

Adam Svensson picked up his first PGA Tour title in the final official event of 2022, the RSM Classic. He struggled on his first try at the Tournament of Champions last week, finishing 37th of 38 players who finished, though this was largely due to a really poor 77 in round three and a bad week on the greens. With his game tee-to-green looking solid enough outside of that round three performance, particularly his iron play, he can bounce back here at a place he finished 7th last year on just a second visit.

That 7th here last year was a promising start to the year for the Canadian; however, despite finishing 9th in the Honda Classic just a few starts later, he struggled throughout much of the remainder of the early part of 2022.

He turned this around with a pleasing top 25 in his home open in June, following that with a further two top 25s and a season’s best 6th in the Barbasol Championship, which provided a huge helping hand to him earning his way into the first of the playoff events - the St Jude Championship - though he didn’t progress to the BMW Championship.

Svensson then started the new season in good shape, finishing 12th in the Fortinet Championship, however the win at the RSM Classic came as somewhat of a surprise following a poor run of form after his performance at the Fortinet and even more so was the career best putting performance he produced to win it, gaining +0.8 strokes more than his closest competitor with the putter.

That’s a club which blows hot and cold, though the fact that superb putting display came on bermudagrass greens is a huge positive and when combined with his biggest weapons: his accuracy off the tee and quality in approach, where he ranked 40th and 41st respectively last season, we see why he took to this course last year.

That 7th place finish in last year’s Sony came thanks to excellence in approach, ranking 6th and on the greens, ranking 12th, this following on from a 43rd on debut and with a 6th in the Barbasol, as well as other strong coastal form - his victory in the RSM Classic chief amongst them - this is a much better fit for Svensson and I’m expecting a much improved result from last week.

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