Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Tips: Four selections for 2023 PGA Tour curtain-raiser

It’s been seven weeks since Adam Svensson won the last official tournament on the 2022 PGA Tour calendar in the RSM Classic, and though we’ve had a few unofficial events in the meantime - courtesy of the Hero World Challenge, won by Viktor Hovland for the second year in a row and the QBE Shootout that saw Sahith Theegala and Tom Hoge take home the spoils - it’s good to get back to more meaningful action this week; as we kick off 2023 with the traditional PGA Tour curtain-raiser: the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua’s Plantation Course in Hawaii.

The Tournament of Champions has been going since 1953 – though only here at Kapalua since 1999 – and sees the previous years’ winners on tour play in the first event of the New Year. However, in addition this year will also see the top 30 in last season’s FedEx Cup rankings compete in Hawaii.

We have no defending champion this year, as Australia’s Cameron Smith – who won this event by one stroke over Jon Rahm in 2022, shooting a record -34 in the process – is now of LIV Golf. 

Jack Nicklaus has the most wins in the event with five, though none of them here. Many have won multiple times since the switch to Kapalua in ’99, with Stuart Appleby taking home the title three years in a row from 2004-2006; Justin Thomas the most recent example, picking up the win in difficult conditions in 2020, three years after winning the event for the first time in 2017.

With another star-studded edition set to kick off 2023, what kind of challenge will the quirky Plantation Course present players with this week?

The Course

Kapalua’s Plantation Course is a par 73, measuring 7596 yards; consisting of eleven par 4s, four par 5s and just three par 3s. It was finished in the early 90s by the design team of Coore and Crenshaw, who then stepped in to renovate the course in 2019: adding new tees and refining both the greens and bunkers; all done with the intent of making this course – which has frequently seen incredibly low scoring, with winning scores of -20 or lower commonplace – a little more difficult.

It seemed to have done the trick in 2020, as Justin Thomas’ -14 was the highest winning score since 2007. Though we can surely put this down to conditions, as in the following two editions the low scoring has been back; Harris English shooting -25 to win in 2021 and Cameron Smith’s -34 last year was the lowest winning score not only at Kapalua but in the event’s history.

Fairways and greens on this exposed setup are some of the largest you’ll find all season; Kapalua ranking as the easiest course on tour in which to find fairways and greens over the last four years. The penalty should you stray from the fairways is small, whilst the challenge placed on your short game for missing the greens is also lacking in severity.

There is a lot of sand around here, which is always best avoided, whilst the undulations on the greens can cause problems if not hitting it close enough; though ultimately, even with the changes, the course just has too little in the way of trouble for a field made up of some of the best players on the planet, relying entirely on winds sweeping across from the Pacific Ocean to pose serious questions to the players.

It provides a fun, scorable test to ease players into the new season, with the reachable par 5s seeing birdies and eagles in abundance, whilst many of the par 4s are there to be attacked; combined with dramatic elevation changes giving stunning views of the Pacific Ocean, it’s easy to see why it’s amongst the favourite stops on tour for PGA Tour pros.

The Stats

The Tournament of Champions has seen plenty of varying routes to success. In the last two years we’ve had strong putting performances from Cameron Smith and Harris English propel them to the title, whilst in 2020 Justin Thomas was at his best in approach when winning in contrasting conditions – which may well rear their head again this week on at least one of the four days.

Dustin Johnson overpowered the course on route to success in 2018 and slotted in between was a balanced all-round performance from Xander Schauffele.

As with any low scoring affair, it can often be the putter which makes the difference – with a liking for bermudagrass even more beneficial this week - though strong approach play should also be key; if you are not dialled in with your irons you will be leaving yourself with too much to do on these large greens.

The openness of the course definitely plays into the hands of the longer hitters, with five of last year’s top 8 ranking top 10 in driving distance, however there’s enough run out in these fairways that will give the shorter hitters plenty of nice yardages into the greens and they can certainly challenge if getting hot with the putter or in approach, much like we saw from Harris English in 2021.

With potentially strong winds to come on Friday - gusts of upwards of 30mph predicted - that might be a day to hold on rather than go birdie seeking; with that a decent scrambling ability is required and I also want to side with players who play the par 5s well.

Key Stats: SG: Approach, SG: Putting

Secondary Stats: Driving Distance, Scrambling, Par 5 Scoring

Correlating Courses/Events

It can be tricky to find correlating courses for an event in which we always have a limited field made up of world class players, as the best players in the world are liable to play well anywhere.

I am taken by some strong form in recent years linking to the only other event that takes place in Hawaii: the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club, despite being much tighter off-the-tee, it is another typically low scoring affair if the wind doesn’t blow and sees players hit greens for fun. 

Both Cameron Smith and Justin Thomas are past winners here and in the Sony, whilst 2021 ToC winner, Harris English, has three top 10s in the Sony, including 3rd and 4th place finishes in 2015 and 2014.

Whilst coastal form in general - particularly on other islands, such as the Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntacana – should be a positive, I do like the look of two other courses which rank closely to the Plantation Course in terms of overall difficulty in every aspect: the 2021 CJ Cup at The Summit Club and the host of the AT & T Byron Nelson since 2021, TPC Craig Ranch.

Both courses are generous off-the-tee, easy on which to hit greens and lack punishment for errant shots; all three of those events having been won in scores of -25 or lower. Rory McIlroy won at The Summit Club and looks a perfect fit for Kapalua, which he showed when finishing 4th on debut in 2019. He was chased home in that 2021 CJ Cup by Collin Morikawa, who has amassed a strong record at Kapalua on three visits.

Korea’s KH Lee has won both renewals of the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch but last year’s leaderboard was littered with players who have gone well in the Tournament of Champions: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are all past champions in Hawaii and finished top 5 at Craig Ranch.

The Weather

There’s a little rain about before the start of the event which could soften the course up, though it looks set to be dry throughout the four days of tournament play. As mentioned, some strong winds are set to arrive on Friday, with a moderate breeze on show throughout the week, though with much less strong gusts than on Friday, I expect the other three rounds to be typically scoreable.

The Field

World #1 Rory McIlroy once again skips the PGA Tour opener, instead choosing to start his year out on the DP World Tour in Abu Dhabi. However, we still have an ultra-strong field, with ten of the world’s top twelve in attendance; world #2 Scottie Scheffler the highest ranked player.

In addition there are twelve debutants teeing it up at Kapalua, including US Open winner Matt Fitzpatrick, Korean sensation Tom Kim and PGA Tour rookie of the year for 2022, Cameron Young.

Selections

Jon Rahm is a clear favourite here at around 6/1 and with a record that has seen him twice finish 2nd and never outside the top 10 in five visits to Kapalua, it’s easy to see why.

Scottie Scheffler comes next at 10/1, with past champion Xander Schauffele at 11/1, though these are passed over for a man who with three wins in his last seven starts represents the clear value of those at the top for me, Tony Finau.

Following on from what was essentially a true breakthrough win for Finau in The Northern Trust in the latter part of 2021, 2022 took a bit of time to get off the ground. Though once it did, he never looked back; a 2nd place finish in the Mexico Open in May turning his year around.

He finished 2nd again four starts later in the Canadian Open, this straight after a 4th at Colonial in the Charles Schwab Challenge a week earlier and following a solid 28th in The Open, he started a superb winning stretch over the last few months of the season.

Finau claimed back-to-back titles at the end of July, first winning a tricky 3M Open by an impressive three strokes and then dismantling the field a week later in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, shooting a tournament record -26 for a five stroke victory.

He then enjoyed a good FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing 5th in the St Jude Championship and 9th in the Tour Championship, though he wasn’t done winning for the year. 

Finau returned from an over two-month absence on the PGA Tour with a missed cut in World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, though bounced back in fine style the week later in the Houston Open; once again pulling comfortably clear of the field, shooting -16 to win by four strokes.

Throughout this run, Finau excelled across the board. Always a superb tee-to-green player, the putter had often failed him at key moments but he was putting just about as well as anyone at the end of the year and combined with that typically excellent tee-to-green game, we have seen someone playing near perfect golf; indeed over their last 50 rounds, he ranks second only to world #1 Rory McIlroy in SG: Total. 

He can kick off this year in style here at Kapalua, a venue which should suit his power-packed game down to the ground – something he signalled with a 9th on debut in 2017, an event he got into thanks to a win in Puerto Rico – and show why in this kind of form he’s being spoken about as a huge major player this year.

Sam Burns wasn’t quite at his best at the end of last year, though with the ability he possesses on the greens and in approach, this looks a good place for him to kick of the year in better fashion and he can improve on his debut 19th place finish in 2022.

Burns is another who’s broken through in a big way the last couple of years. Following picking up his first two PGA Tour titles in 2021 in the Valspar Championship and Sanderson Farms Championship, he doubled his tally in 2022, once again winning the Valspar and adding the Charles Schwab Challenge just a handful of starts later.

Those two wins came in a purple patch for Burns from March to May, with him looking a little less consistent either side, though he did finish a strong 7th on his second to last start of the year in the CJ Cup at Congaree.

People will look at his talent and think the major performances were a little underwhelming, with a best of 20th in the PGA Championship; though three made cuts out of four in those elite events was a step in the right direction and he can kick on again from there this season.

Burns has been one of the best putters around in recent years and putt these greens well in that debut 19th last year. His iron play has been superb for the most part in the last two years, though he was a little off the boil at the end of 2022 and will need to improve in this regard to cause real damage here.

I’m confident he can do this on a course which should suit his game to a tee; a 2nd in the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch and 5th at The Summit Club adding more encouragement as to his suitability and coming into this a little under the radar, he can remind everyone that he too should be in the conversation when talking about potential major performers this year.

Seamus Power was in fabulous form at the end of last year as he picked up a second PGA Tour title in the Bermuda Championship; with a 15th place finish here on debut last year offering plenty of promise, the Irishman looks well placed for a strong start to 2023.

Power’s breakthrough win came in the Barbasol Championship in 2021 and he stepped up a level on that last year. Starting the year with a couple of top 10s in his first three starts, he then got to the quarter-finals of the WGC Matchplay and recorded three top 27s in his four major appearances, the best a 9th place finish in the PGA Championship.

His year looked like fizzling out with little to shout about but he found something when winning in Bermuda and maintained form over his final two starts, finishing 3rd at Mayakoba and then 5th on his final start of the year in the RSM Classic, meaning he comes into this year with recent form figures as good as anyone.

Power has shown himself to possess a strong all-round game over recent years, though excels with the putter. I was buoyed by his superb approach performance in the RSM Classic, where he produced one of his best ever performances and I’m hoping he can carry that into the new year.

This, along with the above average length he possesses off the tee should see this place a good fit for Power, which he evidenced when 15th on debut last year. No stranger to good performances in Hawaii, he’s also finished 3rd in the Sony Open.

Top 10s at TPC Craig Ranch and in the Corales Puntacana give me more confidence in his chances to perform this week and with the form he looked in at the end of 2022, he was one of the more interesting of this middle range in the market this week.

I’m going to sign off with Canada’s Mackenzie Hughes at a tasty price. He was in good form at the end of last year, with a second PGA Tour win coming in the Sanderson Farms Championship. With him possessing some strong coastal form and being as likely to get super-hot with the putter as anyone in the field, he can improve on some average efforts to date at Kapalua.

For much of 2022, Hughes’ form gave little to shout about but he found something during the month following his appearance in the BMW Championship and his start in the first event of the new season in the Fortinet Championship.

He finished 25th there and followed with victory in the Sanderson Farms; carrying on his good form in starts after, finishing 23rd in the ZOZO Championship and 16th in the Houston Open, before a missed cut in the RSM Classic in his final start of 2022.

Hughes’ typically excellent short game has been in fine form over those starts, though it was his approach play that shone most with his win in Jackson, as he ranked 6th in the field. 

For a player who has often been neither accurate nor particularly long off the tee, this place should suit, with some notably longer driving distance performances in the wraparound season providing added interest to his potential around here. 

Finishes of 25th and 41st don’t quite point to that but he has strong form in the Corales Puntacana, having finished 2nd and 3rd there, whilst a 2nd in the Honda Classic adds another piece of excellent coastal form and with the game to not only handle the trickier conditions on Friday but also to hole the putts needed to tot up a low score on the calmer days, he looked an attractive price this week.