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Premier League xG & xA Leaders: Top of the charts for Expected Goals and Assists

Mohamed Salah features prominently on both lists for Expected Goals and Expected Assists this season
Mohamed Salah features prominently on both lists for Expected Goals and Expected Assists this season

Despite 22 top-flight games having been called off due to Covid regulations, the Premier League's winter break from January 24 to February 5 goes ahead.

The latest set of PL fixtures saw league leaders Man City drop points away to Southampton, while pack chasers Liverpool and Chelsea earned themselves victories on Sunday over Crystal Palace and Tottenham respectively.

During this 12-day blackout period, we've decided to thumb through some of the modern metrics in the form of xG (Expected Goals) and xA (Expected Assists) to see who are the top 10 ranked players from each department. As well as this, we've picked out a couple of under performers from both fields, in addition to highlighting a couple of individuals who have exceeded their predicted totals for the season so far.

For a refresher about what we mean by Expected Goals, click here. As for Expected Assists, you can clue yourself up on this statistic through this link.

Pl Xg Leaders
Premier League Odds

Premier League xG Leaders 2021/22

1. Mohamed Salah: xG - 16.24 / Goals - 16

2. Diogo Jota: xG - 12.62 / Goals - 10

3. Cristiano Ronaldo: xG - 10.42 / Goals - 8

4. Sadio Mane: xG - 10.42 / Goals - 8

5. Michail Antonio: xG - 9.32 / Goals - 8

6. Jarrod Bowen: xG - 8.49 / Goals - 6

7. Harry Kane: xG - 7.99 / Goals - 5

8. Raheem Sterling: xG - 7.91 / Goals - 7

9. Joshua King: xG - 7.47 / Goals - 5

10. Son Heung-Min: xG - 7.06 / Goals - 8

Salah Top of the Pile

As the leading Premier League goalscorer for the current campaign, it's no surprise to see Mohamed Salah first in the Expected Goals rankings. His tally of 16 Premier League goals in the 2021/22 season is almost exactly matched by an xG of 16.24, meaning he has scored about as many goals as the metric expected him to.

The Egyptian also leads the way by a considerable margin for both shots and shots on target; his total of 80 in the former category followed by Cristiano Ronaldo on 63, with Liverpool's talisman having hit the target on 38 different occasions - a number that Harry Kane is closest to on 26.

It's also worth mentioning that all three of Liverpool's forwards make up 3/4 of the top four in this field. Diogo Jota is in second, who according to the numbers, should have scored more than his 10-goal return as of now, with his xG clocking in at 12.62.

Sadio Mane and Cristiano Ronaldo are level for both their xG and actual goals return; the stats suggesting that both should have produced double-digit goal tallies as opposed to the eight Premier League goals each of them has managed.

All Eyes on King

One player you won't have anticipated being in the top 10 for the highest xG among Premier League players this season is Joshua King. The Hornets front man is way down the ranks for total shots (38) and shots on target (14), but his Expected Goals figure of 7.47 suggests he should have put away more than just his five goals. The disparity in King's numbers are perhaps more significant than anybody else's in the top 10 since Watford currently sit in the bottom three and a couple of extra goals could maybe have provided a couple of extra points along the way for Ranieri's men.

Dennis the Menace

Someone who's been much talked about this season - particularly for his surprise inclusion near the top of so many stats lists - is another Watford man in Emmanuel Dennis. The Nigerian forward boasts the largest over performance of any player in the Premier League in this department, with an xG of 3.59 versus the eight league goals he's bagged as of writing. Not bad for a signing who cost the Hornets £3.6million last summer!

Today's Football Tips
Pl Xa Leaders

Premier League xA Leaders 2021/22

1. Trent Alexander-Arnold: xA - 7.5 / Assists - 10

2. Mohamed Salah: xA - 6.8 / Assists - 9

3. Bruno Fernandes: xA - 6.2 / Assists - 5

4. Michail Antonio: xA - 5.0 / Assists - 6

5. Kevin De Bruyne: xA - 4.4 / Assists - 2

6. Mason Mount: xA - 4.4 / Assists - 6

7. Jarrod Bowen: xA - 4.3 / Assists - 7

8. Phil Foden: xA - 4.2 / Assists - 5

9. Raphinha: xA - 4.0 / Assists - 5

10. Andrew Robertson: xA - 3.8 / Assists - 8

Trent vs Robbo

Liverpool's full-backs may well play on the same team out on the pitch, but off it they're in direct competition with one another when it comes to assisting their teammates. As the list and its figures show, Trent Alexander-Arnold has the most assists of any Premier League player with 10, while Mohamed Salah is sandwiched between the pair on eight assists himself.

Robbo and his impact in forward areas for Liverpool goes under the radar because of just how prominent TAA is. Although Trent is over performing his Expected Assists total by some way, this is nothing compared to the 4.2 difference in Robbo's expected vs actual numbers. This goes to show that Liverpool are converting a lot of unexpected chances from wide areas - the likelihood being a header converting those deliciously whipped crosses from either of these two, whether that's from open play or a set-piece.

Bruno's Numbers Game

Although his numbers have decreased rather significantly from last season, Bruno Fernandes still finds himself right in the mix for xA. Behind only Alexander-Arnold and Salah, the Portuguese international has generated the highest Expected Assists total of any EPL footballer - a difference of 1.2 to the next closest to him in Michail Antonio with 5.0.

Despite not registering a single assist since October 31st last year, Fernandes is still creating a significant number of chances for his team, and important ones at that. He has provided 58 key passes for his teammates throughout his 1774 minutes of league football this campaign. His tally of 6.2 xA clearly indicates there are conversion problems at Man Utd rather than hinting towards a reduction in quality from the Reds' no.18.

For a full range of stats for this season, including a game-by-game breakdown feature, check out our Premier League Stats Zone.

Premier League Odds

Manchester City
WIN PROB: 87%
1
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1/7
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Liverpool
WIN PROB: 15%
1
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Odds correct as of 2022-05-20 20:38 Odds subject to change.
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