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Premier League Top Scorer Betting: Salah v Kane going down to the wire

Premier League Top Scorer Betting: Salah is just one goal behind Kane in his pursuit for a third golden boot
Premier League Top Scorer Betting: Salah is just one goal behind Kane in his pursuit for a third golden boot

This year's race for the Premier League Golden boot looks to be going down to the wire with two players at the head of proceedings both looking to scoop the award for a third time. Tottenham’s Harry Kane is currently just one goal ahead of Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and as we approach the final furlong of the campaign, we’ve taken a look at the fixtures ahead to see who might have the edge.

Two Horse Race

As things stand, England Captain Harry Kane has 21 goals to his name and can be backed at 4/5 with most bookmakers, which implies a 55% chance that he will go on to claim the prestigious award.

Liverpool fans will be hoping that their Egyptian King can once again reclaim the crown that he was awarded in 2018 and 2019, though. There is very little chance that Salah will match his highest tally of 32 goals, which came three seasons ago, but with 20 under his belt this campaign, there’s every chance he could overtake Kane. 

For those wishing to get behind Salah in the top scorer market, odds of even money are being offered (1/1) from William Hill and BetVictor. Just two points separate Liverpool and Spurs in the race for European qualification, but one thing that may be worth remembering here is that Liverpool do have an extra game to play, which could bolster Salah’s chances of snatching the Golden Boot.

Premier League Top Scorer Betting

Fixtures ahead

Harry Kane - Tottenham

  • Leeds (a)
  • Wolves (h)
  • Aston Villa (h)
  • Leicester (a)

Goal Stats

  • Goals: 21
  • xG: 18.3
  • Non penalty goals: 17
  • Non Penalty xG: 15.2
  • Goals Per 90: 0.69

Mohamed Salah - Liverpool 

  • Manchester United (a)
  • Southampton (h)
  • West Brom (a)
  • Burnley (h)
  • Crystal Palace (h)

Goal Stats

  • Goals: 20
  • xG: 17.3
  • Non penalty goals: 17
  • Non Penalty xG: 12.8
  • Goals Per 90: 0.68

With Bruno Fernandes and Son Heung-min five goals back in the top scorer standings this looks like a two horse race between Salah and Kane, but who has the edge?

Neither Liverpool or Spurs have been in the most inspired form of late and as a result find themselves outside the Champions League qualification places. Jurgen Klopp’s men are 11/4 to finish inside the top-four, while Tottenham are at a longer price in the market at 8/1.

Things really could not be tighter between Salah and Kane with the former being just one goal behind but having a game in hand. Based on the fixtures remaining we’re giving Mo Salah the slight edge here. Liverpool have a better chance of making the top-four than Spurs and their final three fixtures could see plenty of goals for Salah with West Brom, Burnley and Crystal Palace left on the agenda.

Spurs’ remaining fixtures are a little more tricky and they will face some better defensive units in the final weeks of the campaign in Wolves, Aston Villa and a final day showdown away at Leicester City. Kane ranks slightly higher this season when it comes to shots taken but as we can see from the stats above, it really has been tough to separate this pair this season when it comes to goals.

One thing for sure here is that we have to have the most goal-hungry forwards ever to grace the Premier League. Both have before spoken about their desire for this award and their selfless pursuits of personal accolades are something we have seen in previous seasons. At the current prices, though, we’d be leaning more towards Mo Salah based on his slightly easier fixtures ahead. 

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