Northern Ireland vs Italy Odds: Four bets for Monday's crunch tie

The last International break of the year continues this week with the final round of matches taking place and the line-up for Qatar 2022 continuing to take shape. There are eight qualifiers on Monday including San Marino v England and Scotland v Denmark, but the biggest game of the evening is probably in Belfast where European Champions Italy try to secure qualification vs Northern Ireland.

Windsor Park is the venue for this vital Group C clash which will decide who is on the plane to Qatar and who will face huge playoff matches at the end of this month. The Italians are locked on 15 points at the top of the table with Switzerland after a disappointing 1-1 result in Rome on Friday. They have the slight advantage of a two goal difference over the Swiss, who have a home tie against Bulgaria, and they cannot afford to treat this tie with any complacency. Even a narrow win here could let the Swiss in with a comprehensive win over the Bulgarians in Lucerne.

Northern Ireland can’t make the playoffs and are sitting in 3rd place in the table after a 1-0 win on Friday over bottom of the table Lithuania. They’ll be hoping for an encouraging performance here to finish the campaign on a high note going into the Nations League matches in March.

We’ve had a look at this Group C tie and have picked out four bets with Paddy Power that could be worth a nibble. As always, please Gamble Responsibly and good luck.

All the signs above point to a comprehensive Italian win right? Well, the stats simply don’t back that up. Italy are not free scoring at the moment, are missing leading striker Ciro Immobile, and his replacement Andrea Bellotti is not fully match fit. They have scored only 13 goals in 7 games in a poor group and 11 of their last 12 World Cup games have ended in Under 2.5 goals. 

Similarly, Northern Ireland are a form U2.5 team. It’s occurred in 8 of their last 10 World Cup games and they are generally defensively sound. They’ve conceded only a goal a game in their seven qualifiers to date and it’s problems at the other end of the pitch which have seen them struggle in the group. 

With that in mind the Under 2.5 goals looks value at 11/10 at Paddy Power.

I fully expect the Italians to break the strong resistance from the Northern Irish and if there is someone capable of picking the lock it's Insigne. The 30-year-old Napoli maestro has three assists in his five qualifying appearances thus far and averages 2.3 key passes per game. The 15/8 at Paddy Power looks a solid bet.

Millwall midfielder Saville is certainly fond of a card. He’s picked up two in three starts for the Green and White Army and has six cautions for his club in the Championship this season. He should be in for a tough night playing against Nicolò Barella and Jorginho in the Azzuri midfield and I can see his name ending in the Referee’s book.

If you are after a longshot tonight you can combine the three selections above. A Paddy Power Bet Builder on the treble is currently slightly over 35/1 which looks on the large side.