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Next Prime Minister Odds: Who is favourite for the big job?

Next Prime Minister Odds: Who will follow the poisoned chalice of the departing Boris Johnson
Next Prime Minister Odds: Who will follow the poisoned chalice of the departing Boris Johnson

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After a tumultuous week in politics that finally saw the end of the reign of Boris Johnson, we've asked our man Adam Roberts to look into exactly who could replace him and the possible timescales involved. What next for the Conservative Party and the country at large? 

*This article was updated on the 11th July with all the latest announced candidates and odds*

Well, he's finally gone! The chief rat has left the sunken ship and agreed to resign following the resignation of over 60 MP's, including numerous cabinet ministers. I've lost count of the number of times I've written in these pages about Boris exit dates and when he could eventually leave following numerous scandals and atrocious by-election results. Now it's finally done and Johnson leaves as one of the shortest serving leaders in history, what happens next?

There is initial confusion over the timescales of Johnson's departure. It has been reported that he wants to stay on in a caretaker capacity until the end of a Conservative leadership election campaign, around October time. However, that seems increasingly unlikely after both Conservative MP's and opposition parties have said there is no way he can continue to govern given the scale of the resignations involved. 

It appears more likely that Deputy PM Dominic Raab will be installed as an interim Prime Minister until a permanent leader is elected. What a mess! Let's take a look at the list of candidates to replace the fallen 'idol'.

To Reach Round 2

Rishi Sunak
WIN PROB: 75%
1
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1/3
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0/1
Liz Truss
WIN PROB: 31%
1
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9/4
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
1/6
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1/7
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1/7
Penny Mordaunt
WIN PROB: 22%
1
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7/2
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£30 FREE BET
4/5
Tom Tugendhat
WIN PROB: 20%
Kemi Badenoch
WIN PROB: 14%
Jeremy Hunt
WIN PROB: 8%
Sajid Javid
WIN PROB: 7%
Priti Patel
WIN PROB: 5%
Nadhim Zahawi
WIN PROB: 5%
Suella Braverman
WIN PROB: 5%
Grant Schapps
WIN PROB: 3%
Rehman Chishti
WIN PROB: 2%
Show More
Odds correct as of 2022-07-20 00:15 Odds subject to change.

So who might replace him?

Ben Wallace - No longer in the betting after announcing he wasn't going to stand

Ben Wallace is the current Secretary of State for Defence and one of the few cabinet ministers who hasn't resigned - probably understandable given his role in the arming of the Ukrainian defence forces. A former soldier, who would go down well with the Brexit, patriotic, flag-shagger party members, has flown in to near the top of the betting and looks a real contender. The 52-year-old is MP for Wyre and Preston North, so may be seen as a man who can 'Level Up' in the north as Prime Minister. He faced criticism in the past for his claiming of £175,523 expenses on top of his then £63k salary. 

Wallace has been backed into 5/2 after an initial straw poll showed he was the favourite amongst Tory members. 

Rishi Sunak - 4/1

The former Chancellor of the Exchequer was once seen as the obvious replacement as Prime Minister. 'Dishy Rishi' was the party golden boy, heart-throb to the housewives, and cold-blooded stats man who was the steady hand to ensure the economy continued to recover post-pandemic. However, his sleek PR campaign started to show huge cracks and whether the general electorate will be able to find common ground with a former banker at Goldman Sachs, a hedge-fund owner and a man who is married to a woman richer than the queen is another question altogether. He has had a large hit to his popularity with the non-dom scandal relating to his wife and his role in the cost of living crisis. Not sure this one will happen, given the closeness with which he is associated to the Johnson regime.

Penny Mordaunt - 9/2

Mordaunt is the current MP for Portsmouth North and the serving Minister of State for Trade Policy. The 49-year-old has emerged as a front runner to become the new Tory Party leader and her odds have reflected that. Coming in from 40/1 last year to as short as 4/1 at some bookmakers. The staunch Brexiteer is well liked by the new influx of red-wall MPs elected back in 2019 and is seen as someone who gets the job done. She has however, made several controversial comments including suggesting overseas aid would be better spent on a replacement for the Royal Yacht Britannia. Could we see another female leader of the Conservative Party?

Liz Truss - 7/1

If you had asked me a few years ago about Liz Truss becoming the next Prime Minister, I'd have made a discrete call to Broadmoor and had you shipped off. The former Secretary of State for International Trade burst onto the political scene with a very strange speech on pork markets and cheese, but since then has been promoted to the heady heights of Foreign Secretary and is seen by some as the next darling of the party. 

Political Betting

Jeremy Hunt 12/1

'The Hunt' looked to be a long shot a couple of years ago when he resigned from the cabinet and the role of Foreign Secretary back in 2019 in protest of the appointment of Boris Johnson as party leader. Hunt ran in that same contest and ran on a strong anti-Johnson rhetoric.

However, since then in his role as Chairman of the Health and Social Care select committee he has regularly held the government to account on their failings during the Covid-19 Pandemic. In particular, he was extremely critical of then Health Secretary Matt Hancock and is now seen as a more centre leaning candidate who could win more floating voters.  The general public will have long memories of his own time as Health Secretary though, which included the junior doctor strike.     

Tom Tugendhat - 14/1

Another ex-military man, Tugendhat is the MP for Tonbridge and Malling and the current Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. The 49-year-old has only been a sitting politician since 2015 and voted to stay in the EU during the Brexit referendum a year later, something that may come back to bite him in his hunt for the top Tory job. 

When asked what the naughtiest thing he had ever done was, he replied: "Invade a country". He was awarded a MBE back in 2010 for his military service. 

Sajid Javid - 20/1

Javid always features highly in these markets and has obvious ambitions for the post, having stood against Johnson in 2019. After he had been appointed by Johnson as Chancellor of the Exchequer in his first cabinet, Javid eventually resigned from the post after a disagreement with Johnson and Dominic Cummings about firing his backroom staff. After the resignation of then Health Secretary Matt Hancock back in June 2021 , Javid returned to the Cabinet in that role and remained there until his resignation this week. He also made a resignation speech in the House of Commons that doubled up as a leadership campaign speech.

Nadhim Zahawi - 28/1

The current Chancellor and probably a contender for the shortest holder of that role in history, having only been appointed on Tuesday evening, did a full about face on Thursday morning and released a statement telling Johnson he must now go. Zahawi was born in Iraq and fled to the UK at the age of 11.

Some see Zahawi as a self-made man, son of immigrants, who made his millions off his own back and a superb politician. Others see another private schoolboy, who is obscenely rich and has faced scandals around attending a men-only gala that was subject to 'groping' allegations - sound familiar? He has also faced allegations of taking huge amounts of money from an oil company as a second income. 

I can't see this one happening personally.

Also announced as running: 

Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Grant Shapps, Rehman Chishti. Priti Patel is expected to announce her intention to run on the 11th July. 

We will be following the Conservative leadership election closely here at BettingOdds.com so bookmark our Politics page for all the latest news and odds.

2024 Or Later
WIN PROB: 80%
2024
WIN PROB: 73%
1
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£20 FREE BET
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1/4
2023
WIN PROB: 18%
1
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9/2
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9/2
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4/1
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7/2
2022
WIN PROB: 9%
1
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8/1
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7/2
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7/2
Odds correct as of 2022-08-02 14:26 Odds subject to change.
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