Next Labour Leader Odds: Could Beergate open the door for Nandy or Cooper?

With the Westminster media whipping themselves up to a frenzy in an attempt to force Sir Keir Starmer to resign, it means that the Next Labour Leader Market is getting some attention at a time it really shouldn’t be of any interest. Neil Monnery takes a look at what might happen should a leadership election be imminent…

The whole ‘Beergate’ issue just stumps me. Well actually I’ve just typed a lie. It doesn’t stump me whatsoever knowing that the right-wing media are doing all they can to muddy the waters and throw enough muck to keep their golden boy as clean as possible.

Losing 500 odd councillors was a very bad performance for the Conservative Party last week but had you listened to the media, they were falling over themselves to say the results were better than expected. I think it has become clear that a significant section of our media are not reporting the news but instead forwarding their own agenda. I know it has been the case for a while but I don’t think there is any pretense anymore.

Anyway moving on from that early article rant. Despite already investigating the incident, the Durham Constabulary have agreed to reopen the case against Sir Keir Starmer over whether a working event including a curry and a beer was in fact breaking lockdown rules after relentless pressure from Tories and right-wing mouthpieces who have been frothing at the mouth for the past week or so.

The 59 year-old Labour leader has ratcheted up the ante by announcing that should he be found to have broken lockdown rules, he would resign. The accusations that he’s putting pressure on the investigation is quite frankly hilarious as those noises are coming from the very same people who were themselves putting pressure on the police to reopen the investigation. They really can’t have it both ways despite all of their howling.

Still, should he be fined and leave his post. It would create a little bit of a problem for the Labour Party. Angela Rayner has sided with Sir Keir and announced that she would go as well. The MP for Ashton-under-Lyne is the fourth favourite and should the job come open in the near future, she won’t be a contender.

Nor will current favourite - Andy Burnham. The former leadership candidate isn’t even a sitting MP at the moment but his position within the party is certainly strengthening. The way he fought for Greater Manchester throughout Tier 3 Covid restrictions really boosted his popularity. Should he decide to return to national politics at the next General Election then he could easily be seen as the next leader of the party but he’s not leading it from outside the House of Commons so he’s a hard pass at the moment.

So two of the top four choices in the betting markets could be ignored if Starmer goes over Beergate and that leaves Wes Streeting and Lisa Nandy. I’m firmly of the belief that the party needs to have a female leader sooner rather than later but even more so they need a leader who represents a constituency outside of the capital. The party has struggled with its roots - losing ground to the Tories in the north-east and north-west.

Streeting is MP for Ilford North so I'm passing on him but Nandy is the MP for Wigan and has centre-left positions that would be palatable for many. She did stand as a candidate to replace Jeremy Corbyn and came third but when writing in her local newspaper about her intention to stand, she showed that one of her primary goals would be to rebuild the party in its traditional heartlands.

“I understand that we have one chance to win back the trust of people in Wigan, Workington and Wrexham.

“Without what were once our Labour heartlands we will never win power in Westminster and help to build the country we know we can be.

“I’m standing because I know too many people in places like Wigan no longer feel they have a voice in our national story. So many of you have told me you believe many leaders are not interested in what you have to say and are unable - or unwilling - to understand your lives. I believe you are right.”

Any supporter of the party will understand that without winning back great swathes of the north of England, the Labour Party cannot win a General Election outright anytime soon. This is why she is likely to attract plenty of attention should we see a leadership election in the near future then that 8/1 price at the time of writing with William Hill - is outstanding value.

Another name to note is Yvette Cooper. The former cabinet minister who many pundits believe could have won the 2010 leadership election after Gordon Brown's resignation but chose not to run as husband Ed Balls did is a veteran of Labour frontbench politics. She did run in 2015 but finished third following the dramatic shift to the left the party undertook. The 53 year-old has been a sitting MP since 1997 and represents a Yorkshire constituency that she nearly lost in 2019 as Boris Johnson took his blue hammer to the red wall but before that - it was considered a safe seat.

Cooper is a very accomplished and impressive speaker who would be a fine leader and if the party wanted a natural successor to Sir Keir Starmer then she would fit the bill. 12/1 with Betfair, BetFred, Paddy Power and William Hill also represents some value.

I think these two women would be the top two choices should Beergate topple Sir Keir Starmer and both represent good value.

Whether we have a leadership election this summer is something that is still very much up in the air but if we do, we'll keep you updated about all the market movements here at BettingOdds.com.