Liverpool vs Atalanta Prediction and Betting Tips: Scamacca a massive price in the shots on target market
Posted: 17:16 Wednesday 10th April 2024
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Europa League favourites Liverpool welcome Atalanta to Anfield on Thursday evening in the first leg of their quarter-final. Our man Anthony Eadson provides us with two data-driven tips that he likes the look of for the occasion.
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The last time these two teams faced off, Atalanta came out victorious 2-0 in a Champions League group stage match at Anfield back in November 2020. Josip Ilicic struck first for the Orobici in the 60th minute, with Robin Gosens also on target. The Reds will be hoping for better this time round and are the 1/3 favourites to take an advantage into the second leg. The draw can be backed at 19/4, with an away win for Atalanta all the way out at 8/1.
Liverpool came through the round of 16 by demolishing Sparta Prague 11-2 on aggregate. After earning a 5-1 victory in the first leg, they ran out 6-1 victors in the return match at Anfield in a game where Cody Gakpo bagged himself a brace.
Atalanta won their last Europa League tie, beating Sporting CP 3-2 on aggregate in the round of 16. After playing out a 1-1 stalemate in the first leg, they came out 2-1 winners in the return fixture. The Italian side currently sit sixth in the Serie A table with eight games remaining of their domestic campaign.
Liverpool vs Atalanta Tips
- Gianluca Scamacca Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 1/1 BetMGM
- Marten de Roon to be Carded @ 5/2 BetMGM
Gianluca Scamacca Over 0.5 Shots on Target
Atalanta’s last Europa League match against an English team was a 5-1 thumping of Everton at Goodison Park in November 2017. Having already beaten Liverpool at Anfield in the Champions League in 2020, they are one of three only teams to win away at both Merseyside clubs in major European competition, along with Benfica and Lyon.
The market may not give the visitors much of a chance of picking up a result on Thursday, but I think they will have some big chances and I can see them getting on the scoresheet. The selection that has caught my eye is the even money that is available for former West Ham striker Gianluca Scamacca to register one or more shots on target.
This is a stand out industry top price with BetMGM, with other firms such as Sky Bet and Paddy Power going considerably shorter at 4/9. Scamacca cleared this line in all of his last six appearances across all competitions with shots on target totals of: 2,1,2,1,1,1. That sample includes fixtures against Napoli and Juventus and looking at his Serie A shooting data he has hit the target in 11 of his 12 starts in 2023/24.
Marten de Roon to be Carded
The last time Marten de Roon visited Anfield with Atalanta he was carded and I’m backing a repeat here. One of the most consistent players for yellow cards in Europe’s top-five leagues, de Roon has already hit double figures and racked up ten yellow cards in Serie A this season.
The Dutch midfielder has seen yellow twice this season in Europe and has also been cautioned in the Coppa Italia. Atalanta will be desperate to keep themselves in this tie for the second leg which could lead to some cynical tackles. Other firms have the 33-year-old at around 6/4 to be carded on Thursday, so take the 5/2 that is on show with MGM
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